2,921 research outputs found
Spatio-Temporal Neural Networks for Space-Time Series Forecasting and Relations Discovery
International audienceWe introduce a dynamical spatio-temporal model formalized as a recurrent neural network for forecasting time series of spatial processes, i.e. series of observations sharing temporal and spatial dependencies. The model learns these dependencies through a structured latent dynamical component, while a decoder predicts the observations from the latent representations. We consider several variants of this model, corresponding to different prior hypothesis about the spatial relations between the series. The model is evaluated and compared to state-of-the-art baselines, on a variety of forecasting problems representative of different application areas: epidemiology, geo-spatial statistics and car-traffic prediction. Besides these evaluations, we also describe experiments showing the ability of this approach to extract relevant spatial relations
Bridging the Gap Between Training and Inference for Spatio-Temporal Forecasting
Spatio-temporal sequence forecasting is one of the fundamental tasks in
spatio-temporal data mining. It facilitates many real world applications such
as precipitation nowcasting, citywide crowd flow prediction and air pollution
forecasting. Recently, a few Seq2Seq based approaches have been proposed, but
one of the drawbacks of Seq2Seq models is that, small errors can accumulate
quickly along the generated sequence at the inference stage due to the
different distributions of training and inference phase. That is because
Seq2Seq models minimise single step errors only during training, however the
entire sequence has to be generated during the inference phase which generates
a discrepancy between training and inference. In this work, we propose a novel
curriculum learning based strategy named Temporal Progressive Growing Sampling
to effectively bridge the gap between training and inference for
spatio-temporal sequence forecasting, by transforming the training process from
a fully-supervised manner which utilises all available previous ground-truth
values to a less-supervised manner which replaces some of the ground-truth
context with generated predictions. To do that we sample the target sequence
from midway outputs from intermediate models trained with bigger timescales
through a carefully designed decaying strategy. Experimental results
demonstrate that our proposed method better models long term dependencies and
outperforms baseline approaches on two competitive datasets.Comment: ECAI 2020 Accepted, preprin
Towards Unifying Diffusion Models for Probabilistic Spatio-Temporal Graph Learning
Spatio-temporal graph learning is a fundamental problem in the Web of Things
era, which enables a plethora of Web applications such as smart cities, human
mobility and climate analysis. Existing approaches tackle different learning
tasks independently, tailoring their models to unique task characteristics.
These methods, however, fall short of modeling intrinsic uncertainties in the
spatio-temporal data. Meanwhile, their specialized designs limit their
universality as general spatio-temporal learning solutions. In this paper, we
propose to model the learning tasks in a unified perspective, viewing them as
predictions based on conditional information with shared spatio-temporal
patterns. Based on this proposal, we introduce Unified Spatio-Temporal
Diffusion Models (USTD) to address the tasks uniformly within the
uncertainty-aware diffusion framework. USTD is holistically designed,
comprising a shared spatio-temporal encoder and attention-based denoising
networks that are task-specific. The shared encoder, optimized by a
pre-training strategy, effectively captures conditional spatio-temporal
patterns. The denoising networks, utilizing both cross- and self-attention,
integrate conditional dependencies and generate predictions. Opting for
forecasting and kriging as downstream tasks, we design Gated Attention (SGA)
and Temporal Gated Attention (TGA) for each task, with different emphases on
the spatial and temporal dimensions, respectively. By combining the advantages
of deterministic encoders and probabilistic diffusion models, USTD achieves
state-of-the-art performances compared to deterministic and probabilistic
baselines in both tasks, while also providing valuable uncertainty estimates
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