A Markov Chain Random Field Cosimulation-Based Approach for Land Cover Post-classification and Urban Growth Detection

The recently proposed Markov chain random field (MCRF) approach has great potential to significantly improve land cover classification accuracy when used as a post-classification method by taking advantage of expert-interpreted data and pre-classified image data. This doctoral dissertation explores the effectiveness of the MCRF cosimulation (coMCRF) model in land cover post-classification and further improves it for land cover post-classification and urban growth detection. The intellectual merits of this research include the following aspects: First, by examining the coMCRF method in different conditions, this study provides land cover classification researchers with a solid reference regarding the performance of the coMCRF method for land cover post-classification. Second, this study provides a creative idea to reduce the smoothing effect in land cover post-classification by incorporating spectral similarity into the coMCRF method, which should be also applicable to other geostatistical models. Third, developing an integrated framework by integrating multisource data, spatial statistical models, and morphological operator reasoning for large area urban vertical and horizontal growth detection from medium resolution remotely sensed images enables us to detect and study the footprint of vertical and horizontal urbanization so that we can understand global urbanization from a new angle. Such a new technology can be transformative to urban growth study. The broader impacts of this research are concentrated on several points: The first point is that the coMCRF method and the integrated approach will be turned into open access user-friendly software with a graphical user interface (GUI) and an ArcGIS tool. Researchers and other users will be able to use them to produce high-quality land cover maps or improve the quality of existing land cover maps. The second point is that these research results will lead to a better insight of urban growth in terms of horizontal and vertical dimensions, as well as the spatial and temporal relationships between urban horizontal and vertical growth and changes in socioeconomic variables. The third point is that all products will be archived and shared on the Internet

Agricultural land systems : modelling past, present and future regional dynamics

This thesis arises from the understanding of how the integration of concepts, tools, techniques, and methods from geographic information science (GIS) can provide a formalised knowledge base for agricultural land systems in response to future agricultural and food system challenges. To that end, this thesis focuses on understanding the potential application of GIS-based approaches and available spatial data sources for modelling regional agricultural land-use and production dynamics in Portugal. The specific objectives of this thesis are addressed in seven chapters in Parts II through V, each corresponding to one scientific article that was either published or is being considered for publication in peer-reviewed international scientific journals. In Part II, Chapter 2 summarises the body of knowledge and provides the context for the contribution of this thesis within the scientific domain of agricultural land systems. In Part III, Chapters 3 and 4 explore remotely sensed and Volunteered Geographic Information (VGI) data, multitemporal and multisensory approaches, and a variety of statistical methods for mapping, quantifying, and assessing regional agricultural land dynamics in the Beja district. In Part IV, Chapters 5–7 explore the CA-Markov model, Markov chain model, machine learning, and model-agnostic approach, as well as a set of spatial metrics and statistical methods for modelling the factors and spatiotemporal changes of agricultural land use in the Beja district. In Part V, Chapter 8 explores an area-weighting GIS-based technique, a spatiotemporal data cube, and statistical methods to model the spatial distribution across time for regional agricultural production in Portugal. The case studies in the thesis contribute practical and theoretical knowledge by demonstrating the strengths and limitations of several GIS-based approaches. Together, the case studies demonstrate the underlying principles that underpin each approach in a way that allows us to infer their potentiality and appropriateness for modelling regional agricultural land-use and production dynamics, stimulating further research along this line. Generally, this thesis partly reflects the state-of-art of land-use modelling and contribute significantly to the introduction of advances in agricultural system modelling research and land-system science