Survivable and disaster- resilient submarine optical-fiber cable deployment

06.03.2018 tarihli ve 30352 sayılı Resmi Gazetede yayımlanan “Yükseköğretim Kanunu İle Bazı Kanun Ve Kanun Hükmünde Kararnamelerde Değişiklik Yapılması Hakkında Kanun” ile 18.06.2018 tarihli “Lisansüstü Tezlerin Elektronik Ortamda Toplanması, Düzenlenmesi ve Erişime Açılmasına İlişkin Yönerge” gereğince tam metin erişime açılmıştır.Internete olan mevcut sosyal ve ekonomik bağlılık ve servis kesintileri nedeni ile oluşan önemli miktardaki tamir masrafları ile ağ kalımlılığı günümüzde telekomünikasyon ağ dizaynının önemli bir parçası olmuştur. Ayrıca, denizaltı fiber optik kabloların depremler gibi doğal afetlere veya insan-yapımı afetlere karşı zayıf olduğu da herkesçe kabul edilmiş bir gerçektir. Afete dayanıklı bir denizaltı kablo yerleştirilmesi, bir yada daha fazla kablo afet nedeni ile koptuğunda ağ servislerini yeniden eski haline getirmek için ağ operatörünün maliyetlerini (yolculuk maliyeti, kapasite kayıp maliyeti ve hasar gören kablonun tamir maliyeti) azaltabilir. Bu çalışmada afet-farkındalı denizaltı fiber optik kabloları yerleştirme problemini araştırdık. Kablolar için bir yol/rota seçerken yaklaşımımız toplam beklenen kayıp maliyetini, denizaltı fiber kabloların afetler nedeni ile zarar görebileceğini de düşünerek, bütçe ve diğer kısıtlamalar altında minimize etmeyi hedefler. Yaklaşımımızda afetle ilişkisiz arızaların ana kablonun yanında bir de yedek kablo sağlanarak üstesinden gelindiğini varsaydık. Önce basitçe bir su kütlesi (deniz/okyanus) tarafından ayrılmış iki kara parçası üzerine yerleştirilmiş iki düğümün olduğu bir senaryoyu düşündük. Daha sonra problemi formüle edebilmek için afet bölgelerinden sakınacak şekilde eliptik kablo şeklini dikkate aldık. En nihayetinde problem için, bu durumda yaklaşımımızın potansiyel faydalarını gösteren sayısal örneklerle desteklediğimiz bir Tamsayı Lineer Programlama formülasyonu ürettik. Bununla birlikte problemi daha pratik hale getirmek için, farklı kara parçalarına yerleşmiş çoklu düğümlerin örgüsel bir ağ topolojisini, düzenli şekillere sahip olmayan kabloları, deniz altındaki ortamın topografisini de dikkate aldık. Bu problemi de ifade etmek için sayısal örneklere birlikte bir Tamsayı Lineer Programlama sunduk. Sonuç olarak, pratik durumu düşünerek bir örnek durum incelemesi üzerinde yaklaşımımızı mevcut kablolama sistemleri ile kıyaslayarak teyit ettik. İki durumda da, sonuçlar bize %2-%11 oranında bir yerleştirme maliyeti artışı karşılığında beklenen maliyeti %90-%100 arasında azaltabileceğimizi gösterdi.With the existing profoundly social and economic reliance on the Internet and the significant reparation cost associated with service interruption, network survivability is an important element in telecommunication network design nowadays. Moreover, the fact that submarine optical-fiber cables are susceptible to man-made or natural disasters such as earthquakes is well recognized. A disaster-resilient submarine cable deployment can save cost incurred by network operators such as the capacity-loss cost, the cruising cost and the repair cost of the damaged cables, in order to restore network service when cables break due to a disaster. In this study, we investigate disaster-aware submarine fiber-optic cable deployment problem. While selecting a route/path for cables, our approach aims to minimize the total expected cost, considering that submarine optical-fiber cables may break because of natural disasters, subject to deployment budget and other constraints. In our approach, we assume disaster-unrelated failures are handled by providing a backup cable along with primary cable. In the simple case we consider a scenario with two nodes located on two different lands separated by a water body (sea/ocean). We then consider an elliptic cable shape to formulate the problem, which can be extended to other cable shapes, subject to avoiding deploying cable in disaster zones. Eventuaaly, we provide an Integer Linear Programming formulation for the problem supported with illustrative numerical examples that show the potential benefit of our approach. Furthermore, in order to make the problem more practical, we consider a mesh topology network with multiple nodes located on different sea/ocean, submarine optical- fiber cables of irregular shape, and the topography of undersea environment. Eventually, we provide an Integer Linear Programming to address the problem, together with illustrative numerical examples. Finally, we validate our approach by conducting a case study wherein we consider a practical submarine optical-fiber cable system susceptible to natural disasters. In this case, we compare our approach against the existing cable system in terms of deployment cost and reduction in expected cost. In either case results show that our approach can reduce expected cost from 90% to 100% at a slight increase of 2% to 11% in deployment cost of disaster-unaware approach

A Tractable Stochastic Model of Correlated Link Failures Caused by Disasters

In order to evaluate the expected availability of a service, a network administrator should consider all possible failure scenarios under the specific service availability model stipulated in the corresponding service-level agreement. Given the increase in natural disasters and malicious attacks with geographically extensive impact, considering only independent single link failures is often insufficient. In this paper, we build a stochastic model of geographically correlated link failures caused by disasters, in order to estimate the hazards a network may be prone to, and to understand the complex correlation between possible link failures. With such a model, one can quickly extract information, such as the probability of an arbitrary set of links to fail simultaneously, the probability of two nodes to be disconnected, the probability of a path to survive a failure, etc. Furthermore, we introduce a pre-computation process, which enables us to succinctly represent the joint probability distribution of link failures. In particular, we generate, in polynomial time, a quasilinear-sized data structure, with which the joint failure probability of any set of links can be computed efficiently.Embedded and Networked System

Improving Resilience of Communication in Information Dissemination for Time-Critical Applications

Severe weather impacts life and in this dire condition, people rely on communication, to organize relief and stay in touch with their loved ones. In such situations, cellular network infrastructure\footnote{We refer to cellular network infrastructure as infrastructure for the entirety of this document} might be affected due to power outage, link failures, etc. This urges us to look at Ad-hoc mode of communication, to offload major traffic partially or fully from the infrastructure, depending on the status of it. We look into threefold approach, ranging from the case where the infrastructure is completely unavailable, to where it has been replaced by make shift low capacity mobile cellular base station. First, we look into communication without infrastructure and timely, dissemination of weather alerts specific to geographical areas. We look into the specific case of floods as they affect significant number of people. Due to the nature of the problem we can utilize the properties of Information Centric Networking (ICN) in this context, namely: i) Flexibility and high failure resistance: Any node in the network that has the information can satisfy the query ii) Robust: Only sensor and car need to communicate iii) Fine grained geo-location specific information dissemination. We analyze how message forwarding using ICN on top of Ad hoc network, approach compares to the one based on infrastructure, that is less resilient in the case of disaster. In addition, we compare the performance of different message forwarding strategies in VANETs (Vehicular Adhoc Networks) using ICN. Our results show that ICN strategy outperforms the infrastructure-based approach as it is 100 times faster for 63\% of total messages delivered. Then we look into the case where we have the cellular network infrastructure, but it is being pressured due to rapid increase in volume of network traffic (as seen during a major event) or it has been replaced by low capacity mobile tower. In this case we look at offloading as much traffic as possible from the infrastructure to device-to-device communication. However, the host-oriented model of the TCP/IP-based Internet poses challenges to this communication pattern. A scheme that uses an ICN model to fetch content from nearby peers, increases the resiliency of the network in cases of outages and disasters. We collected content popularity statistics from social media to create a content request pattern and evaluate our approach through the simulation of realistic urban scenarios. Additionally, we analyze the scenario of large crowds in sports venues. Our simulation results show that we can offload traffic from the backhaul network by up to 51.7\%, suggesting an advantageous path to support the surge in traffic while keeping complexity and cost for the network operator at manageable levels. Finally, we look at adaptive bit-rate streaming (ABR) streaming, which has contributed significantly to the reduction of video playout stalling, mainly in highly variable bandwidth conditions. ABR clients continue to suffer from the variation of bit rate qualities over the duration of a streaming session. Similar to stalling, these variations in bit rate quality have a negative impact on the users’ Quality of Experience (QoE). We use a trace from a large-scale CDN to show that such quality changes occur in a significant amount of streaming sessions and investigate an ABR video segment retransmission approach to reduce the number of such quality changes. As the new HTTP/2 standard is becoming increasingly popular, we also see an increase in the usage of HTTP/2 as an alternative protocol for the transmission of web traffic including video streaming. Using various network conditions, we conduct a systematic comparison of existing transport layer approaches for HTTP/2 that is best suited for ABR segment retransmissions. Since it is well known that both protocols provide a series of improvements over HTTP/1.1, we perform experiments both in controlled environments and over transcontinental links in the Internet and find that these benefits also “trickle up” into the application layer when it comes to ABR video streaming where HTTP/2 retransmissions can significantly improve the average quality bitrate while simultaneously minimizing bit rate variations over the duration of a streaming session. Taking inspiration from the first two approaches, we take into account the resiliency of a multi-path approach and further look at a multi-path and multi-stream approach to ABR streaming and demonstrate that losses on one path have very little impact on the other from the same multi-path connection and this increases throughput and resiliency of communication

Probabilistic Shared Risk Link Groups Modeling Correlated Resource Failures Caused by Disasters

To evaluate the expected availability of a backbone network service, the administrator should consider all possible failure scenarios under the specific service availability model stipulated in the corresponding service-level agreement. Given the increase in natural disasters and malicious attacks with geographically extensive impact, considering only independent single component failures is often insufficient. This paper builds a stochastic model of geographically correlated link failures caused by disasters to estimate the hazards an optical backbone network may be prone to and to understand the complex correlation between possible link failures. We first consider link failures only and later extend our model also to capture node failures. With such a model, one can quickly extract essential information such as the probability of an arbitrary set of network resources to fail simultaneously, the probability of two nodes to be disconnected, the probability of a path to survive a disaster. Furthermore, we introduce standard data structures and a unified terminology on Probabilistic Shared Risk Link Groups (PSRLGs), along with a pre-computation process, which represents the failure probability of a set of resources succinctly. In particular, we generate a quasilinear-sized data structure in polynomial time, which allows the efficient computation of the cumulative failure probability of any set of network elements. Our evaluation is based on carefully pre-processed seismic hazard data matched to real-world optical backbone network topologies.Accepted author manuscriptEmbedded and Networked System

A systems approach to analyze the robustness of infrastructure networks to complex spatial hazards

Ph. D. ThesisInfrastructure networks such as water supply systems, power networks, railway networks, and road networks provide essential services that underpin modern society’s health, wealth, security, and wellbeing. However, infrastructures are susceptible to damage and disruption caused by extreme weather events such as floods and windstorms. For instance, in 2007, extensive disruption was caused by floods affecting a number of electricity substations in the United Kingdom, resulting in an estimated damage of GBP£3.18bn (US$4bn). In 2017, Hurricane Harvey hit the Southern United States, causing an approximated US$125bn (GBP£99.35bn) in damage due to the resulting floods and high winds. The magnitude of these impacts is at risk of being compounded by the effects of Climate Change, which is projected to increase the frequency of extreme weather events. As a result, it is anticipated that an estimated US$3.7tn (GBP£2.9tn) in investment will be required, per year, to meet the expected need between 2019 and 2035. A key reason for the susceptibility of infrastructure networks to extreme weather events is the wide area that needs to be covered to provide essential services. For example, in the United Kingdom alone there are over 800,000 km of overhead electricity cables, suggesting that the footprint of infrastructure networks can be as extended as that of an entire Country. These networks possess different spatial structures and attributes, as a result of their evolution over long timeframes, and respond to damage and disruption in different and complex ways. Existing approaches to understanding the impact of hazards on infrastructure networks typically either (i) use computationally expensive models, which are unable to support the investigation of enough events and scenarios to draw general insights, or (ii) use low complexity representations of hazards, with little or no consideration of their spatial properties. Consequently, this has limited the understanding of the relationship between spatial hazards, the spatial form and connectivity of infrastructure networks, and infrastructure reliability. This thesis investigates these aspects through a systemic modelling approach, applied to a synthetic and a real case study, to evaluate the response of infrastructure networks to spatially complex hazards against a series of robustness metrics. In the first case study, non-deterministic spatial hazards are generated by a fractal method which allows to control their spatial variability, resulting in spatial configurations that very closely resemble natural phenomena such as floods or windstorms. These hazards are then superimposed on a range of synthetic network layouts, which have spatial structures consistent with real infrastructure networks reported in the literature. Failure of network components is initially determined as a function of hazard intensity, and cascading failure of further components is also investigated. The performance of different infrastructure configurations is captured by an array of metrics which cover different aspects of robustness, ranging from the proneness to partitioning to the ability to process flows in the face of disruptions. Whereas analyses to date have largely adopted low complexity representations of hazards, this thesis shows that consideration of a high complexity representation which includes hazard spatial variability can reduce the robustness of the infrastructure network by nearly 40%. A “small-world” network, in which each node is within a limited number of steps from any other node, is shown to be the most robust of all the modelled networks to the different structures of spatial hazard. The second case study uses real data to assess the robustness of a power supply network operating in the Hull region in the United Kingdom, which is split in high and low voltage lines. The spatial hazard is represented by a high-resolution wind gust model and tested under current and future climate scenarios. The analysis reveals how the high and low voltage lines interact with each other in the event of faults, which lines would benefit the most from increased robustness, and which are most exposed to cascading failures. The second case study also reveals the importance of the spatial footprint of the hazard relative to the location of the infrastructure, and how particular hazard patterns can affect low voltage lines that are more often located in exposed areas at the edge of the network. The impact of Climate Change on windstorms is highly uncertain, although it could further reduce network robustness due to more severe events. Overall the two case studies provide important insights for infrastructure designers, asset managers, the academic sector, and practitioners in general. In fact, in the first case study, this thesis defines important design principles, such as the adoption of a small-world network layout, that can integrate the traditional design drivers of demand, efficiency, and cost. In the second case study, this thesis lays out a methodology that can help identify assets requiring increased robustness and protection against cascading failures, resulting in more effective prioritized infrastructure investments and adaptation plans