2,158 research outputs found
Smoothing sparse and unevenly sampled curves using semiparametric mixed models: An application to online auctions
Functional data analysis can be challenging when the functional objects are sampled only very sparsely and unevenly. Most approaches rely on smoothing to recover the underlying functional object from the data which can be difficult if the data is irregularly distributed. In this paper we present a new approach that can overcome this challenge. The approach is based on the ideas of mixed models. Specifically, we propose a semiparametric mixed model with boosting to recover the functional object. While the model can handle sparse and unevenly distributed data, it also results in conceptually more meaningful functional objects. In particular, we motivate our method within the framework of eBay's online auctions. Online auctions produce monotonic increasing price curves that are often correlated across two auctions. The semiparametric mixed model accounts for this correlation in a parsimonious way. It also estimates the underlying increasing trend from the data without imposing model-constraints. Our application shows that the resulting functional objects are conceptually more appealing. Moreover, when used to forecast the outcome of an online auction, our approach also results in more accurate price predictions compared to standard approaches. We illustrate our model on a set of 183 closed auctions for Palm M515 personal digital assistants
Functional Regression
Functional data analysis (FDA) involves the analysis of data whose ideal
units of observation are functions defined on some continuous domain, and the
observed data consist of a sample of functions taken from some population,
sampled on a discrete grid. Ramsay and Silverman's 1997 textbook sparked the
development of this field, which has accelerated in the past 10 years to become
one of the fastest growing areas of statistics, fueled by the growing number of
applications yielding this type of data. One unique characteristic of FDA is
the need to combine information both across and within functions, which Ramsay
and Silverman called replication and regularization, respectively. This article
will focus on functional regression, the area of FDA that has received the most
attention in applications and methodological development. First will be an
introduction to basis functions, key building blocks for regularization in
functional regression methods, followed by an overview of functional regression
methods, split into three types: [1] functional predictor regression
(scalar-on-function), [2] functional response regression (function-on-scalar)
and [3] function-on-function regression. For each, the role of replication and
regularization will be discussed and the methodological development described
in a roughly chronological manner, at times deviating from the historical
timeline to group together similar methods. The primary focus is on modeling
and methodology, highlighting the modeling structures that have been developed
and the various regularization approaches employed. At the end is a brief
discussion describing potential areas of future development in this field
A Selective Review of Group Selection in High-Dimensional Models
Grouping structures arise naturally in many statistical modeling problems.
Several methods have been proposed for variable selection that respect grouping
structure in variables. Examples include the group LASSO and several concave
group selection methods. In this article, we give a selective review of group
selection concerning methodological developments, theoretical properties and
computational algorithms. We pay particular attention to group selection
methods involving concave penalties. We address both group selection and
bi-level selection methods. We describe several applications of these methods
in nonparametric additive models, semiparametric regression, seemingly
unrelated regressions, genomic data analysis and genome wide association
studies. We also highlight some issues that require further study.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/12-STS392 the Statistical
Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical
Statistics (http://www.imstat.org
Bayesian Geoadditive Seemingly Unrelated Regression
Parametric seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) models are a common tool for multivariate regression analysis when error variables are reasonably correlated, so that separate univariate analysis may result in inefficient estimates of covariate effects. A weakness of parametric models is that they require strong assumptions on the functional form of possibly nonlinear effects of metrical covariates. In this paper, we develop a Bayesian semiparametric SUR model, where the usual linear predictors are replaced by more flexible additive predictors allowing for simultaneous nonparametric estimation of such covariate effects and of spatial effects. The approach is based on appropriate smoothness priors which allow different forms and degrees of smoothness in a general framework. Inference is fully Bayesian and uses recent Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques
Partially linear additive quantile regression in ultra-high dimension
We consider a flexible semiparametric quantile regression model for analyzing
high dimensional heterogeneous data. This model has several appealing features:
(1) By considering different conditional quantiles, we may obtain a more
complete picture of the conditional distribution of a response variable given
high dimensional covariates. (2) The sparsity level is allowed to be different
at different quantile levels. (3) The partially linear additive structure
accommodates nonlinearity and circumvents the curse of dimensionality. (4) It
is naturally robust to heavy-tailed distributions. In this paper, we
approximate the nonlinear components using B-spline basis functions. We first
study estimation under this model when the nonzero components are known in
advance and the number of covariates in the linear part diverges. We then
investigate a nonconvex penalized estimator for simultaneous variable selection
and estimation. We derive its oracle property for a general class of nonconvex
penalty functions in the presence of ultra-high dimensional covariates under
relaxed conditions. To tackle the challenges of nonsmooth loss function,
nonconvex penalty function and the presence of nonlinear components, we combine
a recently developed convex-differencing method with modern empirical process
techniques. Monte Carlo simulations and an application to a microarray study
demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. We also discuss how the
method for a single quantile of interest can be extended to simultaneous
variable selection and estimation at multiple quantiles.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/15-AOS1367 in the Annals of
Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical
Statistics (http://www.imstat.org
Spike-and-Slab Priors for Function Selection in Structured Additive Regression Models
Structured additive regression provides a general framework for complex
Gaussian and non-Gaussian regression models, with predictors comprising
arbitrary combinations of nonlinear functions and surfaces, spatial effects,
varying coefficients, random effects and further regression terms. The large
flexibility of structured additive regression makes function selection a
challenging and important task, aiming at (1) selecting the relevant
covariates, (2) choosing an appropriate and parsimonious representation of the
impact of covariates on the predictor and (3) determining the required
interactions. We propose a spike-and-slab prior structure for function
selection that allows to include or exclude single coefficients as well as
blocks of coefficients representing specific model terms. A novel
multiplicative parameter expansion is required to obtain good mixing and
convergence properties in a Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation approach and is
shown to induce desirable shrinkage properties. In simulation studies and with
(real) benchmark classification data, we investigate sensitivity to
hyperparameter settings and compare performance to competitors. The flexibility
and applicability of our approach are demonstrated in an additive piecewise
exponential model with time-varying effects for right-censored survival times
of intensive care patients with sepsis. Geoadditive and additive mixed logit
model applications are discussed in an extensive appendix
Monotonic regression based on Bayesian P-splines: an application to estimating price response functions from store-level scanner data
Generalized additive models have become a widely used instrument for flexible regression analysis. In many practical situations, however, it is desirable to restrict the flexibility of nonparametric estimation in order to accommodate a presumed monotonic relationship between a covariate and the response variable. For example, consumers usually will buy less of a brand if its price increases, and therefore one expects a brand's unit sales to be a decreasing function in own price. We follow a Bayesian approach using penalized B-splines and incorporate the assumption of monotonicity in a natural way by an appropriate specification of the respective prior distributions. We illustrate the methodology in an empirical application modeling demand for a brand of orange juice and show that imposing monotonicity constraints for own- and cross-item price effects improves the predictive validity of the estimated sales response function considerably
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