Prediction of future hydrological regimes in poorly gauged high altitude basins: the case study of the upper Indus, Pakistan

In the mountain regions of the Hindu Kush, Karakoram and Himalaya (HKH) the "third polar ice cap" of our planet, glaciers play the role of "water towers" by providing significant amount of melt water, especially in the dry season, essential for agriculture, drinking purposes, and hydropower production. Recently, most glaciers in the HKH have been retreating and losing mass, mainly due to significant regional warming, thus calling for assessment of future water resources availability for populations down slope. However, hydrology of these high altitude catchments is poorly studied and little understood. Most such catchments are poorly gauged, thus posing major issues in flow prediction therein, and representing in fact typical grounds of application of PUB concepts, where simple and portable hydrological modeling based upon scarce data amount is necessary for water budget estimation, and prediction under climate change conditions. In this preliminarily study, future (2060) hydrological flows in a particular watershed (Shigar river at Shigar, ca. 7000 km<sup>2</sup>), nested within the upper Indus basin and fed by seasonal melt from major glaciers, are investigated. <br><br> The study is carried out under the umbrella of the SHARE-Paprika project, aiming at evaluating the impact of climate change upon hydrology of the upper Indus river. We set up a minimal hydrological model, tuned against a short series of observed ground climatic data from a number of stations in the area, in situ measured ice ablation data, and remotely sensed snow cover data. The future, locally adjusted, precipitation and temperature fields for the reference decade 2050–2059 from <i>CCSM3</i> model, available within the IPCC's panel, are then fed to the hydrological model. We adopt four different glaciers' cover scenarios, to test sensitivity to decreased glacierized areas. The projected flow duration curves, and some selected flow descriptors are evaluated. The uncertainty of the results is then addressed, and use of the model for nearby catchments discussed. The proposed approach is valuable as a tool to investigate the hydrology of poorly gauged high altitude areas, and to project forward their hydrological behavior pending climate change

Applicazione di tecniche remote sensing per lo studio dell'evoluzione e della dinamica criosferica in aree remote e di alta quota

I ghiacciai sono efficaci indicatori climatici poich\ue8 si modificano in risposta ai cambi del clima (es. temperatura e precipitazioni). L'attenzione sui ghiacciai di montagna sta aumentando tra la comunit\ue0 scientifica per via del loro sempre pi\uf9 evidente arretramento a scala globale negli ultimi cinquant'anni. Ci\uf2 \ue8 conseguenza del riscaldamento globale. Comprendere il comportamento dei ghiacciai in risposta al cambio climatico \ue8 di enorme importanza non solo per arricchire la conoscenza scientifica, ma anche per poter meglio gestire in futuro le situazioni di rischio naturale che possono colpire le popolazioni che vivono nelle zone montuose, sia nel breve termine (es. GLOF), sia nel lungo (es. Siccit\ue0). Questa tesi di dottorato analizza differenti aspetti della criosfera (ghiacciai e neve) per descriverne la variabilit\ue0 recente e le relazioni con la dinamica climatica. Inizialmente ci si \ue8 concentrati sul Karakorum. Questa \ue8 un\u2019area particolare per gli studi criosferici, che non segue i trend globali di regresso; infatti, in questa zona il bilancio di massa netto dei ghiacciai nei primi anni del ventunesimo secolo \ue8 stato leggermente positivo, con anche taluni casi di espansione. Questa eccezionale situazione \ue8 riconosciuta con il nome di Anomalia del Karakorum (Karakoram Anomaly). Pi\uf9 precisamente il presente elaborato si focalizza sulla zona del Central Karakoram National Park (CKNP), un'area protetta nel nord del Pakistan, rappresentativa della glaciazione dell'intera catena del Karakorum. In questa regione, i venti occidentali rappresentano il sistema di venti dominante e sono presenti nella stagione invernale, mentre la confinante regione Himalayana \ue8 sotto l'influenza predominante dei monsoni, che sono venti estivi. Il presente lavoro descrive in maniera completa lo stato dei ghiacciai del CKNP e la loro recente evoluzione. Ci\uf2 \ue8 stato possibile a seguito della compilazione del catasto glaciale del parco per gli anni 2001 e 2010, a sua volta descritto nel dettaglio nel presente elaborato. Inoltre \ue8 discussa l'analisi dei cambiamenti climatici poi messa in relazione con quelli glaciali, per poter comprendere le cause dietro l'Anomalia del Karakorum. Il cambiamento areale dei 711 ghiacciai mappati nell'area di studio \ue8 stato -0.4 \ub1 202.9 km2 (su 4605.9 \ub1 86.1 km2 nel 2001), il che evidenzia una generale situazione di stabilit\ue0. Anche l'analisi climatica supporta tale condizione di stabilit\ue0. Durante il periodo 2001\u20132010 si \ue8 osservato grazie ai dati del sensore MODIS un leggero aumento delle aree coperte da neve a fine estate. Allo stesso tempo, dati meteo dalle stazioni disponibili hanno rivelato un aumento delle nevicate e una diminuzione della temperatura media dell'aria in estate fin dal 1980, il che si tradurrebbe in coperture nivali pi\uf9 persistenti durante la stagione ablativa. Questi risultati vanno a favore della preservazione glaciale nelle zone di ablazione dovuta a una copertura di neve pi\uf9 duratura, e un maggiore accumulo a quote pi\uf9 alte, presupponendo bilanci di massa netti tendenti al segno positivo. L'altro principale obiettivo del presente elaborato di tesi \ue8 quello di fornire un modello di semplice utilizzo per quantificare l'ablazione di ghiaccio alla superficie glaciale. Dal momento che una copertura detritica sopraglaciale \ue8 in grado di alterare la fusione del ghiaccio vicino alla superficie in funzione dello spessore, il modello tiene conto di due diversi casi: una parte stima l'ablazione per le aree di ghiaccio scoperto con un metodo definito enhanced T-index; l'altra stima la fusione per le zone coperte da detrito, utilizzando un modello di flusso di calore conduttivo. Per quanto concerne le parti coperte da detrito, \ue8 stata prodotta una mappa degli spessori detritici che \ue8 poi stata usata come input per il modello, assieme alla radiazione solare entrante distribuita. Per le aree scoperte da detrito, sono state derivate la temperatura dell'aria e la radiazione entrante distribuite attraverso i dati delle stazioni meteo automatiche presenti nell'area, in seguito usate come input. L'altro parametro necessario \ue8 un modello di elevazione del terreno. In particolare, la distribuzione degli input meteorologici \ue8 stata validata con dati di altre due stazioni presenti all'interno del CKNP (le stazioni di Urdukas e Concordia). L'ablazione modellata \ue8 risultata essere fortemente concorde con le misurazioni effettuate sul ghiacciaio del Baltoro nel 2011, ghiacciaio rappresentativo di tutto il CKNP. Due campioni dello stesso set di dati di fusione misurati su terreno sono stati usati ciascuno rispettivamente in sede di calibrazione e validazione. La fusione nivale \ue8 stata ignorata dal momento che mancavano dati di neve sistematici nell'area di studio. Il modello \ue8 stato fatto girare durante il picco della stagione ablativa (23 luglio\u20139 agosto 2011), durante il quale l'acqua di fusione deriva primariamente dalla fusione glaciale, mentre quella nivale ha un ruolo decisamente minore in questa regione. Il modello ha calcolato un totale di acqua da fusione glaciale pari a 1.963 km3 (0.109 km3 al giorno in media). Quella derivante dalle parti coperte da detrito ammonta a 0.223 km3 (0.012 km3 al giorno in media; min\u2013max 0.006\u20130.016 km3 al giorno), mentre per le parti a ghiaccio scoperto \ue8 1.740 km3 (0.097 km3 al giorno in media; min\u2013max 0.041\u20130.139 km3 al giorno). Tale quantit\ue0 \ue8 paragonabile al 14% di tutta l'acqua contenuta in una grande diga strategica lungo il fiume Indo, di cui i ghiacciai del CKNP sono tributari. I test di sensitivit\ue0 del modello suggeriscono che un aumento delle superfici coperte da detrito sui ghiacciai (probabile per via dell'aumento di eventi di macrogelivazione e di frane) avr\ue0 un notevole impatto sulla fusione effettiva in funzione dei nuovi spessori detritici, e l'ablazione aumenter\ue0 sensibilmente se la temperatura dell'aria dovesse alzarsi. Successivamente l'attenzione del presente elaborato di tesi \ue8 concentrata sulle Ande Cilene e sulla variabilit\ue0 della copertura nevosa. Un obiettivo principale parallelo della presente ricerca \ue8 stato infatti quello di individuare una metodologia basata sul telerilevamento per studiare la variazione della copertura nevosa ad una risoluzione spazio-temporale accettabile. Il sensore MODIS si \ue8 rivelato il pi\uf9 idoneo allo scopo ed \ue8 stata implementata una metodologia che permettesse di estrarre mappe di copertura di neve in maniera automatica dalle informazioni raccolte dal sensore stesso. In particolare, sono stati studiati diciotto bacini idrografici di montagna delle Ande centrali in Cile durante il periodo 2008\u20132011. La stessa metodologia \ue8 stata esportata e adottata per l'analisi della neve nel CKNP come detto. L'area di studio \ue8 stata divisa in tre sotto-zone (Settentrionale, Centrale, Meridionale), per alleggerire il carico di calcolo dell'analisi. In generale, l'area coperta da neve \ue8 diminuita nel corso dei quattro anni di riferimento. I valori massimi sono stati ritrovati nella zona centrale, mentre fattori topografici e climatici (i.e. quote basse pi\uf9 a sud e un clima pi\uf9 arido nel nord), hanno limitato la deposizione della neve nelle altre zone. La linea della neve \ue8 pi\uf9 alta nella zona settentrionale a causa della presenza dell'altopiano, e si abbassa via via verso la zona merdionale. Nella zona settentrionale i minimi di copertura nivale vengono raggiunti prima che nelle altre zone e durano pi\uf9 a lungo (da novembre a marzo), probabilmente a causa del clima pi\uf9 arido. Durante l'intero periodo i valori massimi di copertura nevosa si ritrovano verso ovest. Al termine dell'elaborato e pertinente al tema principale delle applicazioni del telerilevamento allo studio della criosfera, sono presentati alcuni esempi di analisi di ghiacciai di diversa tipologia, dimensione e area geografica. Si tratta di sei casi, fra cui sono presenti tre ghiacciai alpini (Miage, Freney, Aletcsh), ghiacciai equatoriali (i ghiaccia del Kilimajaro), l'Harding Icefield in Alaska e un esempio di ghiacciaio antartico (la Drygalsky ice Tongue).Glaciers are sensitive climate indicators because they adjust their size in response to changes in climate (e.g. temperature and precipitation). The attention paid by the scientists to mountain glacier change is increasing as there are robust evidence of a global glacier shrinkage over the past five decades, which in turn is the consequence of global warming. Understanding the glacier response to climate change is of tremendous importance not only for improving scientific knowledge, but also to predict and manage water resources and natural risks for the people living in mountain areas in the short (e.g. glacier lake outburst floods), and long term (e.g. droughts). In this thesis are analysed different cryospheric elements (mainly glaciers and snow coverage) to describe their recent evolution and to look for relations, if any, with climate trends. Firstly, the focus is put on the Karakoram glaciers. Although a general worldwide retreat of mountain glaciers has been acknowledged by the scientific community, the Karakoram region represents an exception in this sense. Indeed, the net mass balance of the glaciers here in the early twenty-first century was slightly positive, and even some are expanding and thickening. This anomalous behaviour is known as Karakoram Anomaly. More precisely the study area is the Central Karakoram National Park (CKNP), a protected national park in Northern Pakistan representative of the glaciation of the whole Karakoram Range. The westerlies represent the dominant wind system and they occur during winter, while the neighbour Himalayan region is mainly influenced by the summer moonson. A comprehensive description of the state of the CKNP glaciers and of their recent evolution is presented. This was made after the compilation of the glacier inventory of the park for the years 2001 and 2010, which is also presented. Moreover, the analysis of the regional climate change in the recent years is also discussed and related to the actual glacier change, in order to understand the causes behind the Karakoram Anomaly. The glacier area change of the 711 glaciers mapped in the study zone during 2001\u20132010 was only -0.4 \ub1 202.9 km2 (over 4605.9 \ub1 86.1 km2 in 2001), evidencing a general stability. The climate analysis supports glacier stability in the area. A slight increase in late summer snow cover area during 2001\u20132010 was observed from MODIS snow data. At the same time, the available weather stations revealed an increase of snowfall events and a decrease of mean summer air temperatures since 1980, which would translate into more persistent snow cover during the melt season. These results support an enhanced glacier preservation in the ablation areas due to a long-lasting snow cover, and stronger accumulation at higher altitudes, pushing towards positive net balances. The other major aim of the present work is to provide a simple model to evaluate ice melt at the glacier surface. As the supraglacial-debris cover can alter ice ablation close to the glacier surface depending on its thickness, the model was made up of two parts: one which computes the ice melt over the bare ice areas using an enhanced T-index formula; and one for the debris-covered areas using a conductive heat flux module. For the debris-covered parts, the debris thickness map is produced and then provided to the model as input for the computation, other than the distributed shortwave incoming radiation. For the bare ice areas, the modeled air temperature and shortwave incoming radiation are derived from the automatic weather stations present in the CKNP and given to the model. The other model requirement is the digital elevation model. In particular, the meteorological input data were distributed starting from data acquired at Askole automatic weather station, located within the CKNP. The meteorological distribution was validated by comparison with data from other two AWS in the same park limits (Urdukas and Concordia). The modeled ablation data were in strong agreement with measurements collected in the field during 2011 on Baltoro glacier, which is representative of CKNP glaciers. Two sets of the same ablation dataset collected in the field in the CNKP area were used separately for calibration and validation. Snow melt was neglected since snow data in the study area was not systematically available. The model was run against the peak ablation season (23 July\u20139 August 2011), when meltwater mainly comes from ice melt, with snow thaw playing a minor role in this region. The total freshwater from the ablation areas of CKNP glaciers estimated by the model was 1.963 km3 (0.109 km3 d\u20131 on average). The meltwater from the debris-covered parts was 0.223 km3 (0.012 km3 d\u20131 on average; min\u2013max 0.006\u20130.016 km3 d\u20131), and 1.740 km3 (0.097 km3 d\u20131 on average; min\u2013max 0.041\u20130.139 km3 d\u20131) from debris-free sectors. The estimated total freshwater corresponds to 14% of the water contained in a large strategic dam along the Indus River, of which all the CKNP glaciers are tributaries. The sensitivity tests suggest that any increase in the extent of debris coverage (which will likely occur due to augmented macrogelivation processes and rockfall events), will affect melt depending on new debris thickness, and melting will increase largely if summer air temperature increases. The second major focus of this research is put on the snow cover variability of the Chilean Andes. A parallel major aim of this research work is to implement a methodology based on remote sensing to study the snow cover variation on an acceptable spatio-temporal resolution. The MODIS sensor was chosen as the most suitable for this purpose and a methodology for deriving snow maps automatically from it is described and applied for analyzing the SCA variation over 18 watersheds of the central Andes in Chile during 2008\u20132011. The same methodology was then adopted for the climate analysis in the CKNP as mentioned. The study area was divided into three sub-zones (Northern, Central, and Southern), for easing the computation of the snow analysis. Overall, SCA decreased during the four considered years. The maximum SCA was found in the Central Zone, while the topographic and climatic features (i.e. lower altitudes in the South, and a drier climate in the North), limited snow deposition elsewhere. The snow line was found higher in the Northern zone due to the presence of the plateau, while it decreases southwards. In the Northern Zone the minimum SCA was reached sooner than elsewhere, and it lasted for a longer period (November to March), probably because of the drier climate. West aspects showed the maximum of SCA in all zones throughout the study period. Finally, some examples of application of remote sensing to glacier related studies is presented for glaciers of various typology, size, and localization. Six case studies are shown, amongst which there are three alpine glaciers (Miage, Freney, Aletcsh), equatorial glaciers (the Kilimanjaro glaciers), the Harding Icefield in Alaska, and an Antarctic glacier (the Drygalsky Ice Tongue)

The Effect of the El Nino Southern Oscillation on Precipitation Extremes in the Hindu Kush Mountains Range

The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is devastating as it negatively impacts global climatic conditions, which can cause extreme events, including floods and droughts, which are harmful to the region’s economy. Pakistan is also considered one of the climate change hotspot regions in the world. Therefore, the present study investigates the effect of the ENSO on extreme precipitation events across the Upper Indus Basin. We examined the connections between 11 extreme precipitation indices (EPIs) and two ENSO indicators, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI). This analysis covers both annual and seasonal scales and spans the period from 1971 to 2019. Statistical tests (i.e., Mann–Kendall (MK) and Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA)) were used to observe the variations in the EPIs. The results revealed that the number of Consecutive Dry Days (CDDs) is increasing more than Consecutive Wet Days (CWDs); overall, the EPIs exhibited increasing trends, except for the Rx1 (max. 1-day precipitation) and Rx5 (max. 5-day precipitation) indices. The ENSO indicator ONI is a temperature-related ENSO index. The results further showed that the CDD value has a significant positive correlation with the SOI for most of the UIB (Upper Indus Basin) region, whereas for the CWD value, high elevated stations gave a positive relationship. A significant negative relationship was observed for the lower portion of the UIB. The Rx1 and Rx5 indices were observed to have a negative relationship with the SOI, indicating that El Nino causes heavy rainfall. The R95p (very wet days) and R99p (extreme wet days) indices were observed to have significant negative trends in most of the UIB. In contrast, high elevated stations depicted a significant positive relationship that indicates they are affected by La Nina conditions. The PRCPTOT index exhibited a negative relationship with the SOI, revealing that the El Nino phase causes wet conditions in the UIB. The ONI gave a significant positive relationship for the UIB region, reinforcing the idea that both indices exhibit more precipitation during El Nino. The above observations imply that while policies are being developed to cope with climate change impacts, the effects of the ENSO should also be considered

Landslide susceptibility assessment using Frequency Ratio, a case study of northern Pakistan

The northern Pakistan is attributed with rough terrain, active seismicity, monsoon rains, and therefore hosts to variety of geohazards. Among the geohazards, landslides are the most frequent hazard with devastating impacts on economy and society. However, for most of the northern Pakistan, landslide susceptibility maps are not available which can be used for landslide hazard mitigation. This study aims to develop a remote sensing based landslide inventory, analysing their spatial distribution and develop the landslide susceptibility map. The area, selected for this study is comprised of Haramosh valley, Bagrote valley and some parts of Nagar valley, in the Central Karakoram National Park (CKNP) in Gilgit-Baltistan, northern Pakistan. The SPOT-5 satellite image was used to develop a landslide inventory which was subsequently verified in the field. The landslide causative factors of topographic attributes (slope and aspect), geology, landcover, distances from fault, road and streams were used to evaluate their influence on the spatial distribution of landslides. The study revealed that the distance to road, slope gradient has the significant influence on the spatial distribution of the landslides, followed by the geology. The derived results were used in the Frequency ratio technique to develop a landslide susceptibility map. The developed landslide susceptibility map can be utilized for landslide mitigation in the study area

Potential impacts of climatic warming on glacier-fed river flows in the Himalaya

The Himalayan region is one of the most highly glacierised areas on Earth. Regarded as the “water towers” of Asia, the Himalayas are the source of several of the world’s major rivers. The region is inhabited by some 140 million people and ten times as many (~1.4 billion) live in its downstream river basins. Freshwater from the mountains is vital for the region’s economy and for sustaining the livelihoods of a fast-growing population. Climatic warming and the rapid retreat of Himalayan glaciers over recent decades have raised concerns about the future reliability of mountain melt-water resources, leading to warnings of catastrophic water shortages. Several previous studies have assessed climate change impacts on specific glacier-fed rivers, usually applying meso-scale catchment models for short simulation periods during which glacier dimensions remain unchanged. Few studies have attempted to estimate the effects on a regional scale, partly because of the paucity of good quality data across the Himalaya. The aim of this study was to develop a parsimonious grid-based macro-scale hydrological model for the Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra basins that, in order to represent transient melt-water contributions from retreating glaciers, innovatively allowed glacier dimensions to change over time. The model initially was validated over the 1961-90 standard period and then applied in each basin with a range of climate-change scenarios (sensitivity analysis- and climate-model-based) over a 100-year period, to gain insight on potential changes in mean annual and winter flows (water availability proxies) at decadal time-steps. Plausible results were obtained, showing impacts vary considerably across the region (catchments in the east appear much less susceptible to glacier retreat effects than those in the west, due to the influence of the summer monsoon), and, in central and eastern Himalayan catchments, from upstream to downstream (effects diminish rapidly downstream due to higher runoff from non-glaciated parts)

Potential impacts of climatic warming on glacier-fed river flows in the Himalaya

The Himalayan region is one of the most highly glacierised areas on Earth. Regarded as the “water towers” of Asia, the Himalayas are the source of several of the world’s major rivers. The region is inhabited by some 140 million people and ten times as many (~1.4 billion) live in its downstream river basins. Freshwater from the mountains is vital for the region’s economy and for sustaining the livelihoods of a fast-growing population. Climatic warming and the rapid retreat of Himalayan glaciers over recent decades have raised concerns about the future reliability of mountain melt-water resources, leading to warnings of catastrophic water shortages. Several previous studies have assessed climate change impacts on specific glacier-fed rivers, usually applying meso-scale catchment models for short simulation periods during which glacier dimensions remain unchanged. Few studies have attempted to estimate the effects on a regional scale, partly because of the paucity of good quality data across the Himalaya. The aim of this study was to develop a parsimonious grid-based macro-scale hydrological model for the Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra basins that, in order to represent transient melt-water contributions from retreating glaciers, innovatively allowed glacier dimensions to change over time. The model initially was validated over the 1961-90 standard period and then applied in each basin with a range of climate-change scenarios (sensitivity analysis- and climate-model-based) over a 100-year period, to gain insight on potential changes in mean annual and winter flows (water availability proxies) at decadal time-steps. Plausible results were obtained, showing impacts vary considerably across the region (catchments in the east appear much less susceptible to glacier retreat effects than those in the west, due to the influence of the summer monsoon), and, in central and eastern Himalayan catchments, from upstream to downstream (effects diminish rapidly downstream due to higher runoff from non-glaciated parts)

Cambio ambiental y desafíos en el Himalaya. Una perspectiva histórica

This overview, or retrospective, has two objectives. The first is to demonstrate how the principles of ‘mountain geoecology’ were applied in an attempt to counteract the political and socio-economic impacts of a major and misguided environmental orthodoxy-the Theory of Himalayan Environmental Degradation (henceforth to be referred to as the ‘Theory’). The second is to explore the difficulties of transferring the results of on-going scholarly mountain research into the public and political decision-making process. In this sense the paper should be regarded as a case study of the potentially serious effects of exaggerated and emotionally based responses to orthodoxies founded on assumptions and latter-day myths. A third objective, reserved for the companion paper in this issue, outlines the origins of mountain geoecology and explores how academic research influenced the inclusion of high level concern for mountain problems within AGENDA 21, one of the principal results of the 1992 UN Conference on Environment and Development (popularly known as the Rio Earth Summit) and declaration of 2002 as the International Year of Mountains. The original environmental orthodoxy (the Theory) has been eclipsed since the turn of the Millennium by a new populist alarm proposing that the current climate warming will cause all the Himalayan glaciers to disappear in the near future. From this it would follow that, as the glacier melt progresses, numerous large glacial lakes, forming as a consequence, would burst and the ensuing floods would annihilate many millions of people. Eventually, as the glaciers disappeared vital rivers, such as the Ganges and Brahmaputra, would wither to seasonal streams heralding further massive loss of life due to desertification and starvation. This current environmental alarm could be regarded as a present day parallel to the original Theory and will be examined in the final section of the paper. Between 1970 and about 1985 it was almost universal wisdom amongst scholars and development specialists, as well as conservationists, that the Himalaya were on the brink of environmental, and hence socio-economic and political collapse. This theme of gloom and doom was taken up avidly by journalists, politicians, and diplomats; it influenced the expenditure of large sums of aid and development money, and augmented periodic international confrontations. In concise terms, in the early 1970s an assumed approaching environmental disaster was perceived to be driven by relentless growth in the population of subsistence hill communities and their dependence on mountain forests for fuel, fodder, building materials, and conversion to agricultural land. The assumption of rapid and catastrophic deforestation of steep hillslopes under a monsoon climate (the World Bank predicted that there would be no accessible forest remaining in Nepal by the year 2000) led inexorably to a series of dependent assumptions: increasing soil erosion and worsening landslide incidence; accelerated flooding and siltation on the plains of Gangetic India and Bangladesh; social and political unrest, if not serious armed conflict – the notion of a world super-crisis, considering that the region in question contained about ten percent of the world’s entire human population and about thirty percent of its poorest. As will be emphasized later, none of this all-embracing construct was based on reliable evidence, but it was accepted world-wide as a given. It represents a prime example of the dangers associated with convenient adoption of environmental myths, or environmental orthodoxies, especially where the myth is a Western ‘scientific’ construct. I characterized it as The Theory of Himalayan Environmental Degradation (Ives, 1985).Esta perspectiva global, o retrospectiva, tiene dos objetivos. El primero es demostrar cómo se aplicaron los principios de la “geoecología de montaña” en un intento por contrarrestar los impactos políticos y socioeconómicos de una errónea ortodoxia ambiental, la Teoría de la Degradación Ambiental del Himalaya (en adelante referida como la “Teoría”). El segundo es explorar las dificultades para transferir los resultados de la investigación científica en montaña a los procesos públicos de decisión. En este sentido, el artículo debería ser contemplado como un estudio de caso de los efectos potencialmente serios de las exageradas respuestas a las ortodoxias basadas en suposiciones y mitos de última hora. Un tercer objetivo, reservado a otro trabajo publicado en este volumen, subraya los orígenes de la geoecología de montaña y explora cómo la investigación académica influyó en la incorporación de la preocupación por los problemas de la montaña en la AGENDA 21, uno de los principales resultados de la Conferencia de Naciones Unidas de 1992 sobre Medio Ambiente y Desarrollo (popularmente conocida como la Cumbre de Río), y la declaración de 2002 como el Año Internacional de las Montañas. La ortodoxia ambiental original (la Teoría) ha sido eclipsada desde el cambio de milenio por una nueva alarma populista que propone que el actual calentamiento climático hará que todos los glaciares del Himalaya desaparezcan en un futuro próximo. De ahí puede deducirse que, a medida que la fusión glaciar progrese, numerosos lagos glaciares reventarían y las consiguientes avenidas aniquilarían a millones de personas. Eventualmente, tras la desaparición de los glaciares, algunos ríos fundamentales, como el Ganges y el Brahmaputra podrían convertirse en ríos estacionales ocasionando la pérdida masiva de vidas humanas debido a la desertificación y el hambre. Esta alarma ambiental podría ser vista como paralela a la Teoría original, y será examinada en la parte final de este artículo. Entre 1970 y 1985 se mantuvo la opinión entre los científicos y especialistas en desarrollo, así como entre los conservacionistas, de que el Himalaya estaba al borde del colapso ambiental, socioeconómico y político. Este pesimismo y predestinación fue adoptado ávidamente por periodistas, políticos y diplomáticos, e influyó en la dedicación de grandes sumas de dinero y ayudas. En pocas palabras, a comienzos de los años setenta se asumió la ocurrencia de un desastre ambiental determinado por el crecimiento demográfico de comunidades que dependían de los bosques de montaña para la obtención de energía, forraje, materiales de construcción y expansión de los terrenos agrícolas. La asunción de una rápida y catastrófica deforestación de laderas pendientes bajo clima monzónico (el Banco Mundial predijo que no habría bosques accesibles en Nepal hacia el año 2000) condujo inexorablemente a aceptar otras suposiciones: aumento de la erosión del suelo y acentuación de la incidencia de los deslizamientos; incremento de la magnitud y frecuencia de las avenidas y del transporte de sedimento en las llanuras del Ganges en India y Bangladesh; conflictividad social y política, cuando no serios conflictos armados, es decir, la noción de una supercrisis mundial, teniendo en cuenta que la región en cuestión contiene alrededor del 10 por ciento de la población mundial y alrededor de la tercera parte de los más pobres. Como se pone de relieve a continuación, ninguna de esas ideas se basaba en evidencias fiables, pero fueron aceptadas mundialmente como un hecho. Representan un ejemplo claro de los peligros asociados a la adopción de mitos u ortodoxias ambientales, especialmente donde el mito es una construcción “científica” del mundo occidental. Yo la definí como la Teoría de la Degradación Ambiental del Himalaya (Ives, 1985)

The Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment

This open access volume is the first comprehensive assessment of the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region. It comprises important scientific research on the social, economic, and environmental pillars of sustainable mountain development and will serve as a basis for evidence-based decision-making to safeguard the environment and advance people’s well-being. The compiled content is based on the collective knowledge of over 300 leading researchers, experts and policymakers, brought together by the Hindu Kush Himalayan Monitoring and Assessment Programme (HIMAP) under the coordination of the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD). This assessment was conducted between 2013 and 2017 as the first of a series of monitoring and assessment reports, under the guidance of the HIMAP Steering Committee: Eklabya Sharma (ICIMOD), Atiq Raman (Bangladesh), Yuba Raj Khatiwada (Nepal), Linxiu Zhang (China), Surendra Pratap Singh (India), Tandong Yao (China) and David Molden (ICIMOD and Chair of the HIMAP SC). This First HKH Assessment Report consists of 16 chapters, which comprehensively assess the current state of knowledge of the HKH region, increase the understanding of various drivers of change and their impacts, address critical data gaps and develop a set of evidence-based and actionable policy solutions and recommendations. These are linked to nine mountain priorities for the mountains and people of the HKH consistent with the Sustainable Development Goals. This book is a must-read for policy makers, academics and students interested in this important region and an essentially important resource for contributors to global assessments such as the IPCC reports. ; Constitutes the first comprehensive assessment of the Hindu Kush Himalaya region, providing an authoritative overview of the region Assembles the collective knowledge of over 300 leading researchers, practitioners, experts, and policymakers Combines the current state of knowledge of the Hindu Kush Himalaya region in one volume Offers Open Access to a set of practically oriented policy recommendation