Evidence and Ideology in Macroeconomics: The Case of Investment Cycles

The paper reports the principal findings of a long term research project on the description and explanation of business cycles. The research strongly confirmed the older view that business cycles have large systematic components that take the form of investment cycles. These quasi-periodic movements can be represented as low order, stochastic, dynamic processes with complex eigenvalues. Specifically, there is a fixed investment cycle of about 8 years and an inventory cycle of about 4 years. Maximum entropy spectral analysis was employed for the description of the cycles and continuous time econometrics for the explanatory models. The central explanatory mechanism is the second order accelerator, which incorporates adjustment costs both in relation to the capital stock and the rate of investment. By means of parametric resonance it was possible to show, both theoretically and empirically how cycles aggregate from the micro to the macro level. The same mathematical tool was also used to explain the international convergence of cycles. I argue that the theory of investment cycles was abandoned for ideological, not for evidential reasons. Methodological issues are also discussed

Evidence and Ideology in Macroeconomics: The Case of Investment Cycles

The paper reports the principal findings of a long term research project on the description and explanation of business cycles. The research strongly confirmed the older view that business cycles have large systematic components that take the form of investment cycles. These quasi-periodic movements can be represented as low order, stochastic, dynamic processes with complex eigenvalues. Specifically, there is a fixed investment cycle of about 8 years and an inventory cycle of about 4 years. Maximum entropy spectral analysis was employed for the description of the cycles and continuous time econometrics for the explanatory models. The central explanatory mechanism is the second order accelerator, which incorporates adjustment costs both in relation to the capital stock and the rate of investment. By means of parametric resonance it was possible to show, both theoretically and empirically how cycles aggregate from the micro to the macro level. The same mathematical tool was also used to explain the international convergence of cycles. I argue that the theory of investment cycles was abandoned for ideological, not for evidential reasons. Methodological issues are also discussed.business cycle; continuous time econometrics; investment cycle; inventory cycle; maximum entropy spectral analysis; parametric resonance

Critical Realism in Economics and Open-Systems Ontology: A Critique

This paper examines the treatment of ontology offered by Critical Realism. Three main criticisms are made of the Critical Realist treatment of open systems. It is argued that Critical Realism, particularly in the project in economics emanating from Cambridge, UK, tends to define systems in terms of events. This is shown to be problematic. The exemplar of a closed system provided by Critical Realism of the solar system is shown to be flawed in that it is not closed according to the closure conditions identified by Critical Realism. Second, the negativity of the definitions adopted is problematic for heterodox traditions attempting to build positive programs. The dualism of the definitions is also inconsistent with Dow’s approach. This has ramifications for the coherence of Post Keynesianism. Third, the definitions tend to polarize open and closed systems and ignore the degrees of openness evident in reality. This polarization of systems leads to polarized methodology and unsustainable arguments to reject so-called closed-systems methods.open systems, closed systems, Critical Realism, Post-Keynesianism, dualism

Towards an Evolutionary Interpretation of Aggregate Labor Market Regularities

Three well-known aggregate regularities (i.e. Beveridge, Wage, and Okun's curves) seem to provide a quite complete picture of the interplay between labor market macro-dynamics and business cycle. Nevertheless, existing theoretical literature still lacks micro-founded models which are able to jointly account for these three crucial stylized facts. In this paper, we present an agent-based, evolutionary, model trying to formalize from the bottom up individual behaviors and interactions in both product and labor markets. We describe as endogenous processes both vacancy and wage setting, as well as matching and bargaining, demand and price formation. Firms enjoy labor productivity improvements (technological progress) and are selected on the base of their revealed competitiveness (which is also affected by their hiring- and wage-setting behaviors). Simulations show that the model is able to robustly reproduce Beveridge, Wage and Okun's curves under quite broad behavioral and institutional settings. Moreover, the system generates endogenously an Okun's coefficient greater than one even if individual firms employ production functions exhibiting constant returns to labor. Montecarlo simulations also indicate that statistically detectable shifts in Okun's and Beveridge curves emerge as the result of changes in institutional, behavioral, and technological parameters. Finally, the model generates quite sharp predictions about how system parameters affect aggregate performance (i.e. average GDP growth) and its volatility.Labor Markets, Dynamics, Aggregate Regularities, Beveridge Curve, Okun Curve, Wage Curve, Matching Models

New Classical and New Keynesian models of business cycles

A presentation of simple, but complete, New Classical and New Keynesian models of the economy and business cycles that illustrate the central force behind fluctuations in each. Theoretical and statistical arguments for and against each model are discussed.Equilibrium (Economics) ; Business cycles