Solving the 100 Swiss Francs Problem

Sturmfels offered 100 Swiss Francs in 2005 to a conjecture, which deals with a special case of the maximum likelihood estimation for a latent class model. This paper confirms the conjecture positively

Managing financial risks in Papua New Guinea : an optimal external debt portfolio

This report shows that Papua New Guinea's assets and liabilities may be poorly balanced for debt servicing. Thus, it could benefit substantially from active risk management, especially through better selection of the financial instruments in its debt portfolio. The authors present a model and estimate of an optiomal debt portfolio that allows for the use of commodity-linked bonds and conventional debt denominated in different currencies. They judge the hedging effectiveness of this portfolio by how much the variance of expected real import is reduced. The results indicate that commodity-linked bonds could play an important role in the country's risk management strategy. They also show that the country's external debt structure is not well balanced to hedge the foreign exchange risk from the existing composition of non-U.S. dollar-denominated liabilities. The debt portfolio contains an excess of Japanese yen - and Deutschemark - denominated liabilities, while liabilities denominated in British pounds are substantially underrepresented.Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,Public Sector Economics&Finance,Settlement of Investment Disputes,Strategic Debt Management

Teaching to do economics with the computer

This paper presents the course "Doing Economics with the Computer" we taught since 1999 at the University of Bern, Switzerland. "Doing Economics with the Computer" is a course we designed to introduce sophomores playfully and painlessly into computational economics. Computational methods are usually used in economics to analyze complex problems, which are impossible (or very difficult) to solve analytically. However, our course only looks at economic models, which can (easily) be solved analytically. This approach has two advantages: First, relying on economic theory students have met in their first year, we can introduce numerical methods at an early stage. This stimulates students to use computational methods later in their academic career when they encounter difficult problems. Second, the confrontation with the analytical analysis shows convincingly both power and limits of numerical methods. Our course introduces students to three types of software: spreadsheet and simple optimizer (Excel with Solver), numerical computation (Matlab) and symbolic computation (Maple). The course consists of 10 sessions, we taught each in a 3-hour lecture. In the 1st part of each session we present the economic problem, sometimes its analytical solution and introduce the software used. The 2nd part, in the computer lab, starts the numerical implementation with step-by-step guidance. In this part, students work on exercises with clearly defined questions and precise guidance for their implementation. The 3rd part is a workshop, where students work in groups on exercises with still very clear defined questions but no help on their implementation. This part teaches students how to practically handle numerical questions in a well-defined framework. The 4th part of a session is a graded take home assignment where students are asked to answer general economic questions. This part teaches students how to translate general economic questions into a numerical task and back into an economically meaningful answer. A short debriefing in the following week is part 5 and completes each session

What are the main drivers of the Bitcoin price? Evidence from wavelet coherence analysis

Bitcoin has emerged as a fascinating phenomenon of the financial markets. Without any central authority issuing the currency, it has been associated with controversy ever since its popularity and public interest reached high levels. Here, we contribute to the discussion by examining potential drivers of Bitcoin prices ranging from fundamental to speculative and technical sources as well as a potential influence of the Chinese market. The evolution of the relationships is examined in both time and frequency domains utilizing the continuous wavelets framework so that we comment on development of the interconnections in time but we can also distinguish between short-term and long-term connections.Comment: 19 pages, 5 figure

On the connections between PCTL and Dynamic Programming

Probabilistic Computation Tree Logic (PCTL) is a well-known modal logic which has become a standard for expressing temporal properties of finite-state Markov chains in the context of automated model checking. In this paper, we give a definition of PCTL for noncountable-space Markov chains, and we show that there is a substantial affinity between certain of its operators and problems of Dynamic Programming. After proving some uniqueness properties of the solutions to the latter, we conclude the paper with two examples to show that some recovery strategies in practical applications, which are naturally stated as reach-avoid problems, can be actually viewed as particular cases of PCTL formulas.Comment: Submitte

A New Sampling Design for Swiss Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN) Data

Agricultural Finance,