Exitus: An Agent-Based Evacuation Simulation Model For Heterogeneous Populations

Evacuation planning for private-sector organizations is an important consideration given the continuing occurrence of both natural and human-caused disasters that inordinately affect them. Unfortunately, the traditional management approach that is focused on fire drills presents several practical challenges at the scale required for many organizations but especially those responsible for national critical infrastructure assets such as airports and sports arenas. In this research we developed Exitus, a comprehensive decision support system that may be used to simulate large-scale evacuations of such structures. The system is unique because it considers individuals with disabilities explicitly in terms of physical and psychological attributes. It is also capable of classifying the environment in terms of accessibility characteristics encompassing various conditions that have been shown to have a disproportionate effect upon the behavior of individuals with disabilities during an emergency. The system was applied to three unique test beds: a multi-story office building, an international airport, and a major sports arena. Several simulation experiments revealed specific areas of concern for both building managers and management practice in general. In particular, we were able to show (a) how long evacuations of heterogeneous populations may be expected to last, (b) who the most vulnerable groups of people are, (c) the risk engendered from particular design features for individuals with disabilities, and (d) the potential benefits from adopting alternate evacuation strategies, among others. Considered together, the findings provide a useful foundation for the development of best practices and policies addressing the evacuation concerns surrounding heterogeneous populations in large, complex environments. Ultimately, a capabilities based approach featuring both tactical and strategic planning with an eye toward the unique problems presented by individuals with disabilities is recommended

Modelling the behavior of human crowds as coupled active-passive dynamics of interacting particle systems

The modelling of human crowd behaviors offers many challenging questions to science in general. Specifically, the social human behavior consists of many physiological and psychological processes which are still largely unknown. To model reliably such human crowd systems with complex social interactions, stochastic tools play an important role for the setting of mathematical formulations of the problems. In this work, using the description based on an exclusion principle, we study a statistical-mechanics-based lattice gas model for active-passive population dynamics with an application to human crowd behaviors. We provide representative numerical examples for the evacuation dynamics of human crowds, where the main focus in our considerations is given to an interacting particle system of active and passive human groups. Furthermore, our numerical results show that the communication between active and passive humans strongly influences the evacuation time of the whole population even when the "faster-is-slower" phenomenon is taken into account. To provide an additional inside into the problem, a stationary state of our model is analyzed via current representations and heat map techniques. Finally, future extensions of the proposed models are discussed in the context of coupled data-driven modelling of human crowds and traffic flows, vital for the design strategies in developing intelligent transportation systems.Comment: 12 figures, 23 page

Linear and nonlinear Model Predictive Control (MPC) for regulating pedestrian flows with discrete speed instructions

Airports, shopping malls, stadiums, and large venues in general, can become congested and chaotic at peak times or in emergency situations. Linear Model Predictive Control (MPC) is an effective technology in generating dynamic speed or distance instructions for regulating pedestrian flows, and constitutes a promising interventional technique to improve safety and evacuation time during emergency egress operations. We compare linear and nonlinear MPC controllers and study the influence of using continuous vs. discrete control actions. We aim to evaluate the efficacy of simple instructions that pedestrians can easily follow during evacuations. Linear and Nonlinear AutoRegressive eXogenous models (ARX and NLARX) for prediction are identified from input?output data from strategically designed microscopic evacuation simulations. A microscopic simulation framework is used to design and validate different MPC controllers tuned and refined using the identified models. We evaluate the prediction models? performance and study how the controlled variable type, density, or crowd-pressure, influences the controllers? performance. As a relevant contribution, we show that MPC control with discrete instructions is ideally suited to design and deploy practical pedestrian flow control systems. We found that an adequate size of the set of speed instructions is critical to obtain a good balance between controllability and performance, and that density output control is preferred over crowd-pressure.Universidad de Alcal

New approaches to evacuation modelling for fire safety engineering applications

This paper presents the findings of the workshop “New approaches to evacuation modelling”, which took place on the 11th of June 2017 in Lund (Sweden) within the Symposium of the International Association for Fire Safety Science (IAFSS). The workshop gathered international experts in the field of fire evacuation modelling from 19 different countries and was designed to build a dialogue between the fire evacuation modelling world and experts in areas outside of fire safety engineering. The contribution to fire evacuation modelling of five topics within research disciplines outside fire safety engineering (FSE) have been discussed during the workshop, namely 1) Psychology/Human Factors, 2) Sociology, 3) Applied Mathematics, 4) Transportation, 5) Dynamic Simulation and Biomechanics. The benefits of exchanging information between these two groups are highlighted here in light of the topic areas discussed and the feedback received by the evacuation modelling community during the workshop. This included the feasibility of development/application of modelling methods based on fields other than FSE as well as a discussion on their implementation strengths and limitations. Each subject area is here briefly presented and its links to fire evacuation modelling are discussed. The feedback received during the workshop is discussed through a set of insights which might be useful for the future developments of evacuation models for fire safety engineering

Swarm intelligence in evacuation problems: A review

In this paper authors introduce swarm intelligence’s algorithms (ACO and PSO) to determine the optimum path during an evacuation process. Different PSO algorithms are compared when applied to an evacuation process and results reveal important aspects, as following detaile

Deep Q-Learning With Q-Matrix Transfer Learning for Novel Fire Evacuation Environment

Author's accepted manuscript.© 2020 IEEE. Personal use of this material is permitted. Permission from IEEE must be obtained for all other uses, in any current or future media, including reprinting/republishing this material for advertising or promotional purposes, creating new collective works, for resale or redistribution to servers or lists, or reuse of any copyrighted component of this work in other works.acceptedVersio

Multiple-Input-Single-Output prediction models of crowd dynamics for Model Predictive Control (MPC) of crowd evacuations

Predicting crowd dynamics in real-time may allow the design of adaptive pedestrian flow control mechanisms that prioritize attendees? safety and overall experience. Single-Input-SingleOutput (SISO) AutoRegresive eXogenous (ARX) prediction models of crowd dynamics have been effectively used in Linear Model Predictive Controllers (MPC) that adaptively regulate the movement of people to avoid overcrowding. However, an open research question is whether Multiple-Input, State-space, and Nonlinear modeling approaches may improve MPC control performance through better prediction capabilities. This paper considers a simulated controlled evacuation scenario, where evacuees in a long corridor dynamically receive speed instructions to modulate congestion at the exits. We aim to investigate Multiple-Input-Single-Output (MISO) prediction models such that the inputs are the control action (speed recommendation) and pedestrian flow measurement, and the output is the local density of the pedestrian outflow. State-space and Input?output MISO models, linear and neural, are identified using a datadriven approach in which input?output datasets are generated from strategically designed microscopic evacuation simulations. Different estimation algorithms, including the subspace method, prediction error minimization, and regularized AutoRegressive eXogenous (ARX) model reduction, are evaluated and compared. Finally, to investigate the importance of measuring and modeling the pedestrian inflow, the case in which the models? structure is defined as a Single-Input-Single-Output (SISO) system has been explored, where the pedestrian inflow is considered an unmeasured input disturbance. This study has important implications for the design of more effective MPC controllers for regulating pedestrian flows. We found that the prediction error minimization algorithm performs best and that nonlinear state-space modeling does not improve prediction performance. The study suggests that modeling the inner state of the evacuation process through a state-space model positively influences predicting system dynamics. Also, modeling pedestrian inflow improves prediction performance from a predefined prediction horizon value. Overall, linear state-space models have been deemed the most suitable option in corridor-type scenariosUAH-Catedra MANED

Interactive Motion Planning for Multi-agent Systems with Physics-based and Behavior Constraints

Man-made entities and humans rely on movement as an essential form of interaction with the world. Whether it is an autonomous vehicle navigating crowded roadways or a simulated pedestrian traversing a virtual world, each entity must compute safe, effective paths to achieve their goals. In addition, these entities, termed agents, are subject to unique physical and behavioral limitations within their environment. For example, vehicles have a finite physical turning radius and must obey behavioral constraints such as traffic signals and rules of the road. Effective motion planning algorithms for diverse agents must account for these physics-based and behavior constraints. In this dissertation, we present novel motion planning algorithms that account for constraints which physically limit the agent and impose behavioral limitations on the virtual agents. We describe representational approaches to capture specific physical constraints on the various agents and propose abstractions to model behavior constraints affecting them. We then describe algorithms to plan motions for agents who are subject to the modeled constraints. First, we describe a biomechanically accurate elliptical representation for virtual pedestrians; we also describe human-like movement constraints corresponding to shoulder-turning and side-stepping in dense environments. We detail a novel motion planning algorithm extending velocity obstacles to generate collisionfree paths for hundreds of elliptical agents at interactive rates. Next, we describe an algorithm to encode dynamics and traffic-like behavior constraints for autonomous vehicles in urban and highway environments. We describe a motion planning algorithm to generate safe, high-speed avoidance maneuvers using a novel optimization function and modified control obstacle formulation, and we also present a simulation framework to evaluate driving strategies. Next, we present an approach to incorporate high-level reasoning to model the motions and behaviors of virtual agents in terms of verbal interactions with other agents or avatars. Our approach leverages natural-language interaction to reduce uncertainty and generate effective plans. Finally, we describe an application of our techniques to simulate pedestrian behaviors for gathering simulated data about loading, unloading, and evacuating an aircraft.Doctor of Philosoph