7,611 research outputs found
Short Term Load Forecasting New Year Celebration Holiday Using Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Inference System (Case Study: Java â Bali Electrical System)
Celebration of New Year In the Indonesian is constituted the one of the visit Indonesianâs tourism. This event course changes the load of electrical energy. The electrical energy providers that control and operation of electrical in Java and Bali (Java, Bali Electrical System) is required to be able to ensure continuity of load demand at this time, and forecast for the future. Short-term load forecasting very need to be supported by computational methods for simulation and validation. The one of computationâs methods is Interval Type â 2 Fuzzy Inference System (IT-2 FIS). Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Inference System (IT-2 FIS) as the development of methods of Interval Type-1 Fuzzy Inference System (IT-1 FIS), it is appropriate to be used in load forecasting because it has the advantages that very flexible on the change of the footprint of uncertainty (FOU), so it supports to establish an initial processing of the time series, computing, simulation and validation of system models. Forecasting methods used in this research are IT-2 FIS. The process for to know and analyzing the peak load a day is the specially day and 4 days before New year Celebration in the previous year continued analysis by using IT-2 FIS will be obtained at the peak load forecasting New Year Celebration in the coming year. This research shown the average of error value in 2012, 2013 and 2014 is 0,642%. This value is better than using the IT-1 FIS which has a value of error to 0.649%. This research concluded that IT-2 FIS can be used in Short Term Load Forecasting
Development of Neurofuzzy Architectures for Electricity Price Forecasting
In 20th century, many countries have liberalized their electricity market. This power markets liberalization has directed generation companies as well as wholesale buyers to undertake a greater intense risk exposure compared to the old centralized framework. In this framework, electricity price prediction has become crucial for any market player in their decisionâmaking process as well as strategic planning. In this study, a prototype asymmetricâbased neuroâfuzzy network (AGFINN) architecture has been implemented for shortâterm electricity prices forecasting for ISO New England market. AGFINN framework has been designed through two different defuzzification schemes. Fuzzy clustering has been explored as an initial step for defining the fuzzy rules while an asymmetric Gaussian membership function has been utilized in the fuzzification part of the model. Results related to the minimum and maximum electricity prices for ISO New England, emphasize the superiority of the proposed model over wellâestablished learningâbased models
Multi-time-horizon Solar Forecasting Using Recurrent Neural Network
The non-stationarity characteristic of the solar power renders traditional
point forecasting methods to be less useful due to large prediction errors.
This results in increased uncertainties in the grid operation, thereby
negatively affecting the reliability and increased cost of operation. This
research paper proposes a unified architecture for multi-time-horizon
predictions for short and long-term solar forecasting using Recurrent Neural
Networks (RNN). The paper describes an end-to-end pipeline to implement the
architecture along with the methods to test and validate the performance of the
prediction model. The results demonstrate that the proposed method based on the
unified architecture is effective for multi-horizon solar forecasting and
achieves a lower root-mean-squared prediction error compared to the previous
best-performing methods which use one model for each time-horizon. The proposed
method enables multi-horizon forecasts with real-time inputs, which have a high
potential for practical applications in the evolving smart grid.Comment: Accepted at: IEEE Energy Conversion Congress and Exposition (ECCE
2018), 7 pages, 5 figures, code available: sakshi-mishra.github.i
Application of Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Logic System in Short Term Load Forecasting on Special Days
This paper presents the application of Interval Type-2 fuzzy logic systems (Interval Type-2 FLS) in short term load forecasting (STLF) on special days, study case in Bali Indonesia. Type-2 FLS is characterized by a concept called footprint of uncertainty (FOU) that provides the extra mathematical dimension that equips Type-2 FLS with the potential to outperform their Type-1 counterparts. While a Type-2 FLS has the capability to model more complex relationships, the output of a Type-2 fuzzy inference engine needs to be type-reduced. Type reduction is used by applying the Karnik-Mendel (KM) iterative algorithm. This type reduction maps the output of Type-2 FSs into Type-1 FSs then the defuzzification with centroid method converts that Type-1 reduced FSs into a number. The proposed method was tested with the actual load data of special days using 4 days peak load before special days and at the time of special day for the year 2002-2006. There are 20 items of special days in Bali that are used to be forecasted in the year 2005 and 2006 respectively. The test results showed an accurate forecasting with the mean average percentage error of 1.0335% and 1.5683% in the year 2005 and 2006 respectively
Type-2 fuzzy logic system applications for power systems
PhD ThesisIn the move towards ubiquitous information & communications technology, an
opportunity for further optimisation of the power system as a whole has arisen.
Nonetheless, the fast growth of intermittent generation concurrently with markets
deregulation is driving a need for timely algorithms that can derive value from these
new data sources. Type-2 fuzzy logic systems can offer approximate solutions to
these computationally hard tasks by expressing non-linear relationships in a more
flexible fashion. This thesis explores how type-2 fuzzy logic systems can provide
solutions to two of these challenging power system problems; short-term load
forecasting and voltage control in distribution networks. On one hand, time-series
forecasting is a key input for economic secure power systems as there are many tasks
that require a precise determination of the future short-term load (e.g. unit
commitment or security assessment among others), but also when dealing with
electricity as commodity. As a consequence, short-term load forecasting becomes
essential for energy stakeholders and any inaccuracy can be directly translated into
their financial performance. All these is reflected in current power systems literature
trends where a significant number of papers cover the subject. Extending the existing
literature, this work focuses in how these should be implemented from beginning to
end to bring to light their predictive performance. Following this research direction,
this thesis introduces a novel framework to automatically design type-2 fuzzy logic
systems. On the other hand, the low-carbon economy is pushing the grid status even
closer to its operational limits. Distribution networks are becoming active systems with
power flows and voltages defined not only by load, but also by generation. As
consequence, even if it is not yet absolutely clear how power systems will evolve in
the long-term, all plausible future scenarios claim for real-time algorithms that can
provide near optimal solutions to this challenging mixed-integer non-linear problem.
Aligned with research and industry efforts, this thesis introduces a scalable
implementation to tackle this task in divide-and-conquer fashio
Prediction in Photovoltaic Power by Neural Networks
The ability to forecast the power produced by renewable energy plants in the short and middle term is a key issue to allow a high-level penetration of the distributed generation into the grid infrastructure. Forecasting energy production is mandatory for dispatching and distribution issues, at the transmission system operator level, as well as the electrical distributor and power system operator levels. In this paper, we present three techniques based on neural and fuzzy neural networks, namely the radial basis function, the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system and the higher-order neuro-fuzzy inference system, which are well suited to predict data sequences stemming from real-world applications. The preliminary results concerning the prediction of the power generated by a large-scale photovoltaic plant in Italy confirm the reliability and accuracy of the proposed approaches
Integrated computational intelligence and Japanese candlestick method for short-term financial forecasting
This research presents a study of intelligent stock price forecasting systems using interval type-2 fuzzy logic for analyzing Japanese candlestick techniques. Many intelligent financial forecasting models have been developed to predict stock prices, but many of them do not perform well under unstable market conditions. One reason for poor performance is that stock price forecasting is very complex, and many factors are involved in stock price movement. In this environment, two kinds of information exist, including quantitative data, such as actual stock prices, and qualitative data, such as stock traders\u27 opinions and expertise. Japanese candlestick techniques have been proven to be effective methods for describing the market psychology. This study is motivated by the challenges of implementing Japanese candlestick techniques to computational intelligent systems to forecast stock prices. The quantitative information, Japanese candlestick definitions, is managed by type-2 fuzzy logic systems. The qualitative data sets for the stock market are handled by a hybrid type of dynamic committee machine architecture. Inside this committee machine, generalized regression neural network-based experts handle actual stock prices for monitoring price movements. Neural network architecture is an effective tool for function approximation problems such as forecasting. Few studies have explored integrating intelligent systems and Japanese candlestick methods for stock price forecasting. The proposed model shows promising results. This research, derived from the interval type-2 fuzzy logic system, contributes to the understanding of Japanese candlestick techniques and becomes a potential resource for future financial market forecasting studies --Abstract, page iii
A Review of Short Term Load Forecasting using Artificial Neural Network Models
AbstractThe electrical short term load forecasting has been emerged as one of the most essential field of research for efficient and reliable operation of power system in last few decades. It plays very significant role in the field of scheduling, contingency analysis, load flow analysis, planning and maintenance of power system. This paper addresses a review on recently published research work on different variants of artificial neural network in the field of short term load forecasting. In particular, the hybrid networks which is a combination of neural network with stochastic learning techniques such as genetic algorithm(GA), particle swarm optimization (PSO) etc. which has been successfully applied for short term load forecasting (STLF) is discussed thoroughly
AN APPLICATION OF FUZZY LOGIC FOR SHORT-TERM LOAD FORECAST OF MALAYSIA LOAD DEMAND
This final year project report presents an approach for short-term load forecast
problem, based on fuzzy logic technique. As depicted in Chapter 1, in order for all
generating stations to operate at maximum efficiency and minimum operating costs,
National Load Dispatch Centre must be able to forecast the load demanded by
customers. In addition, based on the literature reviews in Chapter 2, conventional
methods have several limitations such as require complex mathematical formulation
and very time consuming. Apart from that, there are several factors that affect shortterm
load forecast such as time factors and weather conditions. In Chapter 3 of this
report, this project proposes a load forecasting method by using fuzzy logic approach,
based on similar days to obtain the next day forecasted load. The iuzzyTECH
software is used to develop a one-day-ahead load forecasting model together with
Microsoft Excel as the data interface. The test results, as shown in Chapter 4, show
that the proposed forecasting method could provide a considerable improvement of
the forecasting accuracy especially as it shows how to reduce forecast error to below
3%. Several recommendations for future improvements are included in Chapter 5.
The suitability of the proposed approach is illustrated through an application to actual
load data ofthe National Load Dispatch Centre in Bangsar, Kuala Lumpur
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