Comparison of data-driven uncertainty quantification methods for a carbon dioxide storage benchmark scenario

A variety of methods is available to quantify uncertainties arising with\-in the modeling of flow and transport in carbon dioxide storage, but there is a lack of thorough comparisons. Usually, raw data from such storage sites can hardly be described by theoretical statistical distributions since only very limited data is available. Hence, exact information on distribution shapes for all uncertain parameters is very rare in realistic applications. We discuss and compare four different methods tested for data-driven uncertainty quantification based on a benchmark scenario of carbon dioxide storage. In the benchmark, for which we provide data and code, carbon dioxide is injected into a saline aquifer modeled by the nonlinear capillarity-free fractional flow formulation for two incompressible fluid phases, namely carbon dioxide and brine. To cover different aspects of uncertainty quantification, we incorporate various sources of uncertainty such as uncertainty of boundary conditions, of conceptual model definitions and of material properties. We consider recent versions of the following non-intrusive and intrusive uncertainty quantification methods: arbitary polynomial chaos, spatially adaptive sparse grids, kernel-based greedy interpolation and hybrid stochastic Galerkin. The performance of each approach is demonstrated assessing expectation value and standard deviation of the carbon dioxide saturation against a reference statistic based on Monte Carlo sampling. We compare the convergence of all methods reporting on accuracy with respect to the number of model runs and resolution. Finally we offer suggestions about the methods' advantages and disadvantages that can guide the modeler for uncertainty quantification in carbon dioxide storage and beyond

Data Driven Surrogate Based Optimization in the Problem Solving Environment WBCSim

Large scale, multidisciplinary, engineering designs are always difficult due to the complexity and dimensionality of these problems. Direct coupling between the analysis codes and the optimization routines can be prohibitively time consuming due to the complexity of the underlying simulation codes. One way of tackling this problem is by constructing computationally cheap(er) approximations of the expensive simulations, that mimic the behavior of the simulation model as closely as possible. This paper presents a data driven, surrogate based optimization algorithm that uses a trust region based sequential approximate optimization (SAO) framework and a statistical sampling approach based on design of experiment (DOE) arrays. The algorithm is implemented using techniques from two packages—SURFPACK and SHEPPACK that provide a collection of approximation algorithms to build the surrogates and three different DOE techniques—full factorial (FF), Latin hypercube sampling (LHS), and central composite design (CCD)—are used to train the surrogates. The results are compared with the optimization results obtained by directly coupling an optimizer with the simulation code. The biggest concern in using the SAO framework based on statistical sampling is the generation of the required database. As the number of design variables grows, the computational cost of generating the required database grows rapidly. A data driven approach is proposed to tackle this situation, where the trick is to run the expensive simulation if and only if a nearby data point does not exist in the cumulatively growing database. Over time the database matures and is enriched as more and more optimizations are performed. Results show that the proposed methodology dramatically reduces the total number of calls to the expensive simulation runs during the optimization process

Progressive construction of a parametric reduced-order model for PDE-constrained optimization

An adaptive approach to using reduced-order models as surrogates in PDE-constrained optimization is introduced that breaks the traditional offline-online framework of model order reduction. A sequence of optimization problems constrained by a given Reduced-Order Model (ROM) is defined with the goal of converging to the solution of a given PDE-constrained optimization problem. For each reduced optimization problem, the constraining ROM is trained from sampling the High-Dimensional Model (HDM) at the solution of some of the previous problems in the sequence. The reduced optimization problems are equipped with a nonlinear trust-region based on a residual error indicator to keep the optimization trajectory in a region of the parameter space where the ROM is accurate. A technique for incorporating sensitivities into a Reduced-Order Basis (ROB) is also presented, along with a methodology for computing sensitivities of the reduced-order model that minimizes the distance to the corresponding HDM sensitivity, in a suitable norm. The proposed reduced optimization framework is applied to subsonic aerodynamic shape optimization and shown to reduce the number of queries to the HDM by a factor of 4-5, compared to the optimization problem solved using only the HDM, with errors in the optimal solution far less than 0.1%

State-of-the-art in aerodynamic shape optimisation methods

Aerodynamic optimisation has become an indispensable component for any aerodynamic design over the past 60 years, with applications to aircraft, cars, trains, bridges, wind turbines, internal pipe flows, and cavities, among others, and is thus relevant in many facets of technology. With advancements in computational power, automated design optimisation procedures have become more competent, however, there is an ambiguity and bias throughout the literature with regards to relative performance of optimisation architectures and employed algorithms. This paper provides a well-balanced critical review of the dominant optimisation approaches that have been integrated with aerodynamic theory for the purpose of shape optimisation. A total of 229 papers, published in more than 120 journals and conference proceedings, have been classified into 6 different optimisation algorithm approaches. The material cited includes some of the most well-established authors and publications in the field of aerodynamic optimisation. This paper aims to eliminate bias toward certain algorithms by analysing the limitations, drawbacks, and the benefits of the most utilised optimisation approaches. This review provides comprehensive but straightforward insight for non-specialists and reference detailing the current state for specialist practitioners

Kontextsensitive Modellhierarchien für Quantifizierung der höherdimensionalen Unsicherheit

We formulate four novel context-aware algorithms based on model hierarchies aimed to enable an efficient quantification of uncertainty in complex, computationally expensive problems, such as fluid-structure interaction and plasma microinstability simulations. Our results show that our algorithms are more efficient than standard approaches and that they are able to cope with the challenges of quantifying uncertainty in higher-dimensional, complex problems.Wir formulieren vier kontextsensitive Algorithmen auf der Grundlage von Modellhierarchien um eine effiziente Quantifizierung der Unsicherheit bei komplexen, rechenintensiven Problemen zu ermöglichen, wie Fluid-Struktur-Wechselwirkungs- und Plasma-Mikroinstabilitätssimulationen. Unsere Ergebnisse zeigen, dass unsere Algorithmen effizienter als Standardansätze sind und die Herausforderungen der Quantifizierung der Unsicherheit in höherdimensionalen, komplexen Problemen bewältigen können