Early Warning Analysis for Social Diffusion Events

There is considerable interest in developing predictive capabilities for social diffusion processes, for instance to permit early identification of emerging contentious situations, rapid detection of disease outbreaks, or accurate forecasting of the ultimate reach of potentially viral ideas or behaviors. This paper proposes a new approach to this predictive analytics problem, in which analysis of meso-scale network dynamics is leveraged to generate useful predictions for complex social phenomena. We begin by deriving a stochastic hybrid dynamical systems (S-HDS) model for diffusion processes taking place over social networks with realistic topologies; this modeling approach is inspired by recent work in biology demonstrating that S-HDS offer a useful mathematical formalism with which to represent complex, multi-scale biological network dynamics. We then perform formal stochastic reachability analysis with this S-HDS model and conclude that the outcomes of social diffusion processes may depend crucially upon the way the early dynamics of the process interacts with the underlying network's community structure and core-periphery structure. This theoretical finding provides the foundations for developing a machine learning algorithm that enables accurate early warning analysis for social diffusion events. The utility of the warning algorithm, and the power of network-based predictive metrics, are demonstrated through an empirical investigation of the propagation of political memes over social media networks. Additionally, we illustrate the potential of the approach for security informatics applications through case studies involving early warning analysis of large-scale protests events and politically-motivated cyber attacks

Essential Considerations for Establishing Partnerships Among Agencies Addressing the Employment-Related Needs of Individuals with Disabilities

[Excerpt] The Collaboration Brief series is intended to assist both generic and disability-specific agencies to work collaboratively and enhance their capacity to serve individuals with disabilities. To help agencies become familiar with their mandated and non-mandated partners, these briefs provide information that will contribute to better understanding of the goals, eligibility criteria, and policy parameters of the respective generic and disability-specific agencies; the development of expanded and improved collaborative relationships; and the coordination of resources, services, and supports. These briefs are consistent with and reflect the overarching goal of the Workforce Investment Act (WIA)— to develop a seamless workforce investment system that includes multiple agencies and programs. The series includes briefs on the One-Stop Career Centers established under Title I of the WIA and the one disability-related mandatory partner participating in the workforce investment system (vocational rehabilitation agencies). In addition, the series includes employment-related services and supports provided by other federal, state, and local agencies and programs serving people with significant disabilities, including Mental Health, Developmental Disabilities, and Special Education. Further, the series explains the potential role the Medicaid program can play in supporting employment and the work incentive provisions in Supplemental Security Income (SSI) and Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) programs, and describes the Ticket to Work Program operated by the Social Security Administration. Each brief provides information on the purpose of the program, eligibility for benefits or services, funding sources, administrative structure, and resources provided to support jobseekers and employers. Further, the briefs provide considerations for assessing the respective programs in each state and suggestions for the development of collaborative relationships. The concepts and strategies of Customized Employment—a dynamic set of assessment and job development tools—will be used to contextualize the collaborative strategies discussed in each brief. Most importantly, the briefs show that no agency is alone or limited to their own resources in serving people with significant disabilities; this series should be used as a source for the basic information upon which cross-system partnerships are built. Collaborative relationships between One-Stop Career Centers, Vocational Rehabilitation, community provider organizations, and other systems that provide benefits and services will create new employment opportunities for people with significant disabilities

Value stability and change during self-chosen life transitions: Self-selection versus socialization effects

Copyright @ 2013 APA. This article may not exactly replicate the final version published in the APA journal. It is not the copy of record.Three longitudinal studies examine a fundamental question regarding adjustment of personal values to self-chosen life transitions: Do values fit the new life setting already at its onset, implying value-based self-selection? Or do values change to better fit the appropriate and desirable values in the setting, implying value socialization? As people are likely to choose a life transition partly based on their values, their values may fit the new life situation already at its onset, leaving little need for value socialization. However, we propose that this may vary as a function of the extent of change the life transition entails, with greater change requiring more value socialization. To enable generalization, we used 3 longitudinal studies spanning 3 different life transitions and different extents of life changes: vocational training (of new police recruits), education (psychology vs. business students), and migration (from Poland to Britain). Although each life transition involved different key values and different populations, across all 3 studies we found value fit to the life situation already early in the transition. Value socialization became more evident the more aspects of life changed as part of the transition, that is, in the migration transition. The discussion focuses on the implications of these findings for research on values and personality change, as well as limitations and future directions for research