Game-Theoretic and Machine-Learning Techniques for Cyber-Physical Security and Resilience in Smart Grid

The smart grid is the next-generation electrical infrastructure utilizing Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs), whose architecture is evolving from a utility-centric structure to a distributed Cyber-Physical System (CPS) integrated with a large-scale of renewable energy resources. However, meeting reliability objectives in the smart grid becomes increasingly challenging owing to the high penetration of renewable resources and changing weather conditions. Moreover, the cyber-physical attack targeted at the smart grid has become a major threat because millions of electronic devices interconnected via communication networks expose unprecedented vulnerabilities, thereby increasing the potential attack surface. This dissertation is aimed at developing novel game-theoretic and machine-learning techniques for addressing the reliability and security issues residing at multiple layers of the smart grid, including power distribution system reliability forecasting, risk assessment of cyber-physical attacks targeted at the grid, and cyber attack detection in the Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) and renewable resources. This dissertation first comprehensively investigates the combined effect of various weather parameters on the reliability performance of the smart grid, and proposes a multilayer perceptron (MLP)-based framework to forecast the daily number of power interruptions in the distribution system using time series of common weather data. Regarding evaluating the risk of cyber-physical attacks faced by the smart grid, a stochastic budget allocation game is proposed to analyze the strategic interactions between a malicious attacker and the grid defender. A reinforcement learning algorithm is developed to enable the two players to reach a game equilibrium, where the optimal budget allocation strategies of the two players, in terms of attacking/protecting the critical elements of the grid, can be obtained. In addition, the risk of the cyber-physical attack can be derived based on the successful attack probability to various grid elements. Furthermore, this dissertation develops a multimodal data-driven framework for the cyber attack detection in the power distribution system integrated with renewable resources. This approach introduces the spare feature learning into an ensemble classifier for improving the detection efficiency, and implements the spatiotemporal correlation analysis for differentiating the attacked renewable energy measurements from fault scenarios. Numerical results based on the IEEE 34-bus system show that the proposed framework achieves the most accurate detection of cyber attacks reported in the literature. To address the electricity theft in the AMI, a Distributed Intelligent Framework for Electricity Theft Detection (DIFETD) is proposed, which is equipped with Benford’s analysis for initial diagnostics on large smart meter data. A Stackelberg game between utility and multiple electricity thieves is then formulated to model the electricity theft actions. Finally, a Likelihood Ratio Test (LRT) is utilized to detect potentially fraudulent meters

Evaluating Resilience of Electricity Distribution Networks via A Modification of Generalized Benders Decomposition Method

This paper presents a computational approach to evaluate the resilience of electricity Distribution Networks (DNs) to cyber-physical failures. In our model, we consider an attacker who targets multiple DN components to maximize the loss of the DN operator. We consider two types of operator response: (i) Coordinated emergency response; (ii) Uncoordinated autonomous disconnects, which may lead to cascading failures. To evaluate resilience under response (i), we solve a Bilevel Mixed-Integer Second-Order Cone Program which is computationally challenging due to mixed-integer variables in the inner problem and non-convex constraints. Our solution approach is based on the Generalized Benders Decomposition method, which achieves a reasonable tradeoff between computational time and solution accuracy. Our approach involves modifying the Benders cut based on structural insights on power flow over radial DNs. We evaluate DN resilience under response (ii) by sequentially computing autonomous component disconnects due to operating bound violations resulting from the initial attack and the potential cascading failures. Our approach helps estimate the gain in resilience under response (i), relative to (ii)

Centralized volt-var optimization strategy considering malicious attack on distributed energy resources control

The adoption of information and communication technology (ICT) based centralized volt-var control (VVC) leads to an optimal operation of a distribution feeder. However, it also poses a challenge that an adversary can tamper with the metered data and thus can render the VVC action ineffective. Distribution system state estimation (DSSE) acts as a backbone of centralized VVC. Distributed energy resources (DER) injection measurements constitute leverage measurements from a DSSE point of view. This paper proposes two solutions as a volt var optimization-distribution system state estimation (VVO-DSSE) malicious attack mitigating strategy when the DER injection measurements are compromised. The first solution is based on local voltage regulation controller set-points. The other solution effectively employs historical data or forecast information. The concept is based on a cumulant based probabilistic optimal power flow with the objective of minimizing the expectation of total power losses. The effectiveness of the approach is performed on the 95-bus UK generic distribution system (UKGDS) and validated against Monte Carlo simulations

Multi-objective network planning for the integration of electric vehicles as responsive demands

The integration of electric vehicles (EVs) into distribution networks presents substantial challenges to Distribution Network Operators (DNOs) internationally. In the 12 months from November 2017, EV registrations in Great Britain have increased by ~22% [A.1], though it is noted that EVs account for only 6% of all UK vehicle registrations [A.1] in 2018. With the UK Government announcement in 2017 [A.2] that "by 2040 there will be an end to the sale of all conventional petrol and diesel cars and vans", the penetration of EVs will require to - unless a new technology emerges - grow exponentially over the next 10 to 20 years towards 100% penetration by 2050. However, the increasing penetration of EVs can provide to the system multiple benefits and assist in mitigating issues; if EV integration is optimally planned using a suitable method. The managed charging of multiple EVs can assist in better utilising power generated by intermittent renewables, which will provide substantial benefits such as peak shifting, deferred reinforcement costs and the reduced requirement for imported energy to support the network at times of need.;Accurately assessing the impact that EVs will have on distribution networks is critical to DNOs [A.3]. In particular, the aim of this thesis is to identify the optimal location, battery size, charger power output and operational envelope for multiple EVs when used as responsive demands in high voltage/low voltage (HV/LV) distribution networks. Societal benefits can include reduced or deferred asset investment costs; reduced technical losses and increasing the utilisation of renewable generation [A.3]. System benefits must be accounted for and can support and inform planning and operational decisions - such as asset investment and network reinforcement. Coordinated smart charging of multiple EVs can assist in managing peaks in the demand curve and increase the utilisation of intermittent renewables. Unmanaged EV charging at times of peak demand would require the DNO to invest in reinforcement solutions to ensure the required additional capacity is made available. However, one approach is to cluster EV charging in periods when the base load would otherwise be low, to lessen the need for asset reinforcement as EV charging during the period of peak demand would be avoided.;Time periods for charging EVs (dependent on the chosen objectives) will be identified and then correlated to times when renewable generation availability is high and when base demand is low. The use of the presented network planning tool will identify EV charging strategies that can be applied to multiple EVs (based on the chosen objectives and with respect to constraints) whilst optimising the type, number and location on a specific modelled network. The planning framework utilises the Strength Pareto Evolutionary Algorithm 2 (SPEA2); the use of this algorithm will ensure that the network constraints are not breached and that multiple objectives are included in the analyses. This thesis investigates the impact that the inclusion of multiple EVs (when used as responsive demands); will have on the HV distribution network when the additional EV load is smartly scheduled to meet specific objectives and to correspond with the availability of intermittent renewables. The ultimate aim of this planning approach is to offer DNOs low cost solutions to multiobjective problems relating to EV integration and operation. [References A1-A3 for Abstract available p. XV of thesis.]The integration of electric vehicles (EVs) into distribution networks presents substantial challenges to Distribution Network Operators (DNOs) internationally. In the 12 months from November 2017, EV registrations in Great Britain have increased by ~22% [A.1], though it is noted that EVs account for only 6% of all UK vehicle registrations [A.1] in 2018. With the UK Government announcement in 2017 [A.2] that "by 2040 there will be an end to the sale of all conventional petrol and diesel cars and vans", the penetration of EVs will require to - unless a new technology emerges - grow exponentially over the next 10 to 20 years towards 100% penetration by 2050. However, the increasing penetration of EVs can provide to the system multiple benefits and assist in mitigating issues; if EV integration is optimally planned using a suitable method. The managed charging of multiple EVs can assist in better utilising power generated by intermittent renewables, which will provide substantial benefits such as peak shifting, deferred reinforcement costs and the reduced requirement for imported energy to support the network at times of need.;Accurately assessing the impact that EVs will have on distribution networks is critical to DNOs [A.3]. In particular, the aim of this thesis is to identify the optimal location, battery size, charger power output and operational envelope for multiple EVs when used as responsive demands in high voltage/low voltage (HV/LV) distribution networks. Societal benefits can include reduced or deferred asset investment costs; reduced technical losses and increasing the utilisation of renewable generation [A.3]. System benefits must be accounted for and can support and inform planning and operational decisions - such as asset investment and network reinforcement. Coordinated smart charging of multiple EVs can assist in managing peaks in the demand curve and increase the utilisation of intermittent renewables. Unmanaged EV charging at times of peak demand would require the DNO to invest in reinforcement solutions to ensure the required additional capacity is made available. However, one approach is to cluster EV charging in periods when the base load would otherwise be low, to lessen the need for asset reinforcement as EV charging during the period of peak demand would be avoided.;Time periods for charging EVs (dependent on the chosen objectives) will be identified and then correlated to times when renewable generation availability is high and when base demand is low. The use of the presented network planning tool will identify EV charging strategies that can be applied to multiple EVs (based on the chosen objectives and with respect to constraints) whilst optimising the type, number and location on a specific modelled network. The planning framework utilises the Strength Pareto Evolutionary Algorithm 2 (SPEA2); the use of this algorithm will ensure that the network constraints are not breached and that multiple objectives are included in the analyses. This thesis investigates the impact that the inclusion of multiple EVs (when used as responsive demands); will have on the HV distribution network when the additional EV load is smartly scheduled to meet specific objectives and to correspond with the availability of intermittent renewables. The ultimate aim of this planning approach is to offer DNOs low cost solutions to multiobjective problems relating to EV integration and operation. [References A1-A3 for Abstract available p. XV of thesis.

Cyber security of the smart grid: Attack exposure analysis, detection algorithms, and testbed evaluation

While smart grid technologies are deployed to help achieve improved grid resiliency and efficiency, they also present an increased dependency on cyber resources which may be vulnerable to attack. This dissertation introduces three components that provide new methods to enhancing the cyber security of the smart grid. First, a quantitative exposure analysis model is presented to assess risks inherited from the communication and computation of critical information. An attack exposure metric is then presented to provide a quantitative means to analyze the model. The metric\u27s utility is then demonstrated by analyzing smart grid environments to contrast the effectiveness of various protection mechanisms and to evaluate the impact of new cyber vulnerabilities. Second, a model-based intrusion detection system is introduced to identify attacks against electric grid substations. The system expands previous research to incorporate temporal and spatial analysis of substation control events in order to differentiate attacks from normal communications. This method also incorporates a hierarchical detection approach to improve correlation of physical system events and identify sophisticated coordinated attacks. Finally, the PowerCyber testbed is introduced as an accurate cyber-physical envi- ronment to help facilitate future smart grid cyber security research needs. The testbed implements a layered approach of control, communication, and power system layers while incorporating both industry standard components along with simulation and emulation techniques. The testbed\u27s efficacy is then evaluated by performing various cyber attacks and exploring their impact on physical grid simulations