Seasonal Price Patterns for Arkansas Soybeans

Seasonality is generally regarded as a major feature in soybean market price variations. Recent years in Arkansas have seen considerable construction of on-farm storage, a move that could mitigate the seasonality effect on price variations. A study comparing cash price indices from the past ten years with results from a 1986 Arkansas study and a recent national-level study found that Arkansas soybean prices appear to have followed a consistent and logical pattern around their national average in spite of increased variability and uncertainty.Seasonality, soybean, cash price index, Demand and Price Analysis, Farm Management, Marketing,

Seasonal Work and Employment Insurance Use

A variety of measures have been used to identify the extent of seasonal work. While some give an indication of the incidence of Employment Insurance (EI) use among seasonal workers or the seasonality of frequent claimants’ EI patterns, they do not directly measure the relationship between seasonal work and frequent EI use. Such analysis requires a longitudinal source, such as the Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics (SLID) which captures both work and EI use patterns over time.seasonal employment

A BIO-ECONOMIC DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING ANALYSIS OF THE SEASONAL SUPPLY RESPONSE BY FLORIDA DAIRY PRODUCERS

Seasonal price premiums have been proposed as a means of dampening the highly seasonal patterns of milk production in Florida. A Markov decision bio-economic model of the breeding and replacement decisions was solved via stochastic dynamic programming and used to analyze the potential supply response to seasonal price premiums. The results of the analysis suggest that the seasonal milk supply in Florida is highly price inelastic.Demand and Price Analysis,

What Are Some Factors That Affect Seasonal Patterns?

The purpose of this resource is to have students use GLOBE data and graphing tools to compare the influence of latitude, elevation, and geography on seasonal patterns. Students analyze the graph of the past year's maximum and minimum temperatures at their site. They compare this graph to similar graphs for two other sites and list which factors that might cause the patterns to be different and investigate one in depth. Educational levels: Middle school, High school

Seasonal Flight Patterns of Hemiptera (Excluding Miridae) in a Southern Illinois Black Walnut Plantation

The seasonal flight patterns of 99 species and subspecies of Hemiptera collected in window traps in a southern Illinois black walnut plantation are compared with similar data from a North Carolina black walnut plantation. Flying height distributions and seasonal flight activities of Corythucha juglandis, Orius insidiosus, Piesma cinerea, Acanthocephala terminalis, Alydus eurinus, Sehirus cinctus cinctus, Acrosternum hilare, Brochymena quadripustutata, Euschistus servus, and Euschistus variolarius are considered in detail

Forecasting malaria incidence from historical morbidity patterns in epidemic-prone areas of Ethiopia: a simple seasonal adjustment method performs best.

The aim of this study was to assess the accuracy of different methods of forecasting malaria incidence from historical morbidity patterns in areas with unstable transmission. We tested five methods using incidence data reported from health facilities in 20 areas in central and north-western Ethiopia. The accuracy of each method was determined by calculating errors resulting from the difference between observed incidence and corresponding forecasts obtained for prediction intervals of up to 12 months. Simple seasonal adjustment methods outperformed a statistically more advanced autoregressive integrated moving average method. In particular, a seasonal adjustment method that uses mean deviation of the last three observations from expected seasonal values consistently produced the best forecasts. Using 3 years' observation to generate forecasts with this method gave lower errors than shorter or longer periods. Incidence during the rainy months of June-August was the most predictable with this method. Forecasts for the normally dry months, particularly December-February, were less accurate. The study shows the limitations of forecasting incidence from historical morbidity patterns alone, and indicates the need for improved epidemic early warning by incorporating external predictors such as meteorological factors

Seasonality in revisions of macroeconomic data

We analyze five vintages of eighteen quarterly macroeconomic variables for the Netherlands and we focus on the degree of deterministic seasonality in these series. We document that the data show most such deterministic seasonality for their first release vintage and for the last available vintage. In between vintages show a variety of seasonal patterns. We show that seasonal patterns in later vintages can hardly be predicted by those in earlier vintages. The consequences of these findings for the interpretation and modeling of macroeconomic data are discussed.seasonality;real-time data

Summertime, and the livin is easy: Winter and summer pseudoseasonal life expectancy in the United States

In temperate climates, mortality is seasonal with a winter-dominant pattern, due in part to pneumonia and influenza. Cardiac causes, which are the leading cause of death in the United States, are also winter-seasonal although it is not clear why. Interactions between circulating respiratory viruses (f.e., influenza) and cardiac conditions have been suggested as a cause of winter-dominant mortality patterns. We propose and implement a way to estimate an upper bound on mortality attributable to winter-dominant viruses like influenza. We calculate 'pseudo-seasonal' life expectancy, dividing the year into two six-month spans, one encompassing winter the other summer. During the summer when the circulation of respiratory viruses is drastically reduced, life expectancy is about one year longer. We also quantify the seasonal mortality difference in terms of seasonal "equivalent ages" (defined herein) and proportional hazards. We suggest that even if viruses cause excess winter cardiac mortality, the population-level mortality reduction of a perfect influenza vaccine would be much more modest than is often recognized

Modelling the Currency in Circulation for the State of Qatar.

The main concern of this report is to model the daily and weekly forecasting of the currency in circulation (CIC) for the State of Qatar. The time series of daily observations of the CIC is expected to display marked seasonal and cyclical patterns daily, weekly or even monthly basis. We have compared the forecasting performance of typical linear forecasting models, namely the regression model and the seasonal ARIMA model using daily data. We found that seasonal ARIMA model performs better in forecasting CIC, particularly for short-term horizons.Currency in Circulation, Forecasting, Seasonal ARIMA

Seasonal patterns and interannual variability of phytoplankton in Lake Stechlin

The paper presents results of detailed phytoplankton investigations in Lake Stechlin between 1994 and 2003. The analysis includes the picoplankton fraction (dominated by Cyanobium sp.) that regularly appears as a deep-layer chlorophyll maximum (DCM). Planktothrix and Aulacoseira are successful competitors against Cyanobium in the isothermal period, the consequences differ markedly due to the fact that Planktothrix is able and Aulacoseira is unable to accumulate in the DCM after the onset of thermocline. The „regular-Cyanobium” and „irregular-Planktothrix, -Aulacoseira” patterns of DCM development has a basic influence on ecosystem functioning. Lake Stechlin a pristine, oligo-mesotrophic deep lake, with an established and detailed monitoring system and thus has been an ideal reference site for studying the influence of global climate changes on plankton that may improve our predictive tools for impact assessment