Learning and Testing Variable Partitions

$$Let $F$ be a multivariate function from a product set $\Sigma^n$ to an Abelian group $G$. A $k$-partition of $F$ with cost $\delta$ is a partition of the set of variables $\mathbf{V}$ into $k$ non-empty subsets $(\mathbf{X}_1, \dots, \mathbf{X}_k)$ such that $F(\mathbf{V})$ is $\delta$-close to $F_1(\mathbf{X}_1)+\dots+F_k(\mathbf{X}_k)$ for some $F_1, \dots, F_k$ with respect to a given error metric. We study algorithms for agnostically learning $k$ partitions and testing $k$-partitionability over various groups and error metrics given query access to $F$. In particular we show that $1.$ Given a function that has a $k$-partition of cost $\delta$, a partition of cost $\mathcal{O}(k n^2)(\delta + \epsilon)$ can be learned in time $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(n^2 \mathrm{poly} (1/\epsilon))$ for any $\epsilon > 0$. In contrast, for $k = 2$ and $n = 3$ learning a partition of cost $\delta + \epsilon$ is NP-hard. $2.$ When $F$ is real-valued and the error metric is the 2-norm, a 2-partition of cost $\sqrt{\delta^2 + \epsilon}$ can be learned in time $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(n^5/\epsilon^2)$. $3.$ When $F$ is $\mathbb{Z}_q$-valued and the error metric is Hamming weight, $k$-partitionability is testable with one-sided error and $\mathcal{O}(kn^3/\epsilon)$ non-adaptive queries. We also show that even two-sided testers require $\Omega(n)$ queries when $k = 2$. This work was motivated by reinforcement learning control tasks in which the set of control variables can be partitioned. The partitioning reduces the task into multiple lower-dimensional ones that are relatively easier to learn. Our second algorithm empirically increases the scores attained over previous heuristic partitioning methods applied in this context.Comment: Innovations in Theoretical Computer Science (ITCS) 202

Shrinkage Estimators in Online Experiments

We develop and analyze empirical Bayes Stein-type estimators for use in the estimation of causal effects in large-scale online experiments. While online experiments are generally thought to be distinguished by their large sample size, we focus on the multiplicity of treatment groups. The typical analysis practice is to use simple differences-in-means (perhaps with covariate adjustment) as if all treatment arms were independent. In this work we develop consistent, small bias, shrinkage estimators for this setting. In addition to achieving lower mean squared error these estimators retain important frequentist properties such as coverage under most reasonable scenarios. Modern sequential methods of experimentation and optimization such as multi-armed bandit optimization (where treatment allocations adapt over time to prior responses) benefit from the use of our shrinkage estimators. Exploration under empirical Bayes focuses more efficiently on near-optimal arms, improving the resulting decisions made under uncertainty. We demonstrate these properties by examining seventeen large-scale experiments conducted on Facebook from April to June 2017