Nuclear weapons: the state of play

"The present report ... describes in detail the progress - or lack of it - on the commitments and recommendations of the 2010 NPT Review Conference, the 2010 and 2012 NSS, and the rather more ambitious ICNND, as at December 2012. Its publication in early 2013 is timed to assist the deliberation of the NPT PrepCom process, and it will be followed by a further updated volume in 2015, prior to that year's NPT Review Conference. While there are some other "report card" publications in existence, or in preparation, aimed at tracking particular sets of recommendations or the performance of particular groups of states, we believe that the present volume is the most comprehensive of its kind." - page xCopyright Information: "This publication may be reproduced in full or in part if accompanied with the following citation:Ramesh Thakur and Gareth Evans, eds., Nuclear Weapons:The State of Play (Canberra: Centre for Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disar

Nuclear weapons: the state of play

The Crawford School of Public Policy’s Centre for Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament (CNND) this week launched in Geneva a major book-length report authoritatively documenting the unhappily diminishing global enthusiasm for nuclear disarmament, and the growing risks of nuclear proliferation. Co-edited by Centre Director Ramesh Thakur and ANU Chancellor and former Foreign Minister Gareth Evans, the report is expected to be an important advocacy tool for governments and civil society organisations worldwide. By the end of 2009 hopes were higher than for many years that the world was at last seriously headed towards nuclear disarmament.  President Obama had promised “to put an end to Cold War thinking” by reducing the role of nuclear weapons in US national security strategy, Russia and the United States had renewed nuclear arms reduction negotiations, and the approaching Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference seemed likely to advance both the disarmament and non-proliferation agendas. By the end of 2012, however, much of this sense of optimism had evaporated.  The New START Treaty was concluded, but it left stockpiles intact and disagreements about missile defence and conventional arms imbalances unresolved. The push for a conference on a nuclear-weapon-free zone in the Middle East had stalled; and the challenges posed by North Korea and Iran were no closer to resolution.  While nuclear weapons numbers had fallen overall, they were growing in Asia. The State of Play report fully assesses these and other developments, measuring progress – or more often lack of it – made as of the end of 2012 on the commitments and recommendations contained in the outcome documents of the 2010 NPT Review Conference, and the 2010 and 2012 Nuclear Security Summits, and also the 2009 ICNND report. It documents small pockets of progress in each of the four areas it addresses (nuclear disarmament, nuclear non-proliferation, nuclear security, and the security risks associated with peaceful uses of nuclear energy). The weakest of all these areas has been nuclear disarmament. Almost 18,000 nuclear weapons remain in the arsenals of the nine nuclear-armed states, with a combined destructive capacity of around 120,000 Hiroshima-sized bombs. In addition, efforts are underway or planned in all of them to upgrade and modernise their nuclear stockpiles, and deployment strategies, with little enthusiasm evident for modifying the doctrines underpinning their use, or reducing their often dangerously high alert status (some 2,000 nuclear weapons are maintained at a level of readiness enabling them to be launched within minutes, maximising the chances of human or system error). While nuclear disarmament continues to be very strongly supported by the overwhelming majority of non-nuclear-armed states, it remains for every nuclear-armed state at best an open-ended, incremental process, with broad and indeterminate links to global and regional stability. There is no appetite for a multilateral disarmament process and no disposition to discuss disarmament timelines. The goal of Nuclear Weapons: The State of Play is not to criticise and castigate, but to advance helpfully the global nuclear policy debate. The Centre’s report ensures that ANU and the Crawford School will be important players in that debate

Port security in the Persian Gulf

The United States and the international community have implemented numerous measures since 2001 designed to improve the security of maritime commerce. Special attention has been paid to the vulnerability of port facilities to exploitation by terrorists or other illicit actors. While the implementation of enhanced port security measures in Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Iraq may have improved some aspects of maritime security, significant vulnerabilities remain. While strong physical security at ports and stringent inspection regimes for container cargo are important elements in protecting maritime infrastructure worldwide, port security measures may yet be undermined by a failure to provide mechanisms which verify the identities and credentials of all individuals with access to ports, secure non-container cargo, and prevent illicit actors from accessing and exploiting port facilities.http://archive.org/details/portsecurityinpe109454054US Navy (USN) author.Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited

NTI Nuclear Materials Security Index: Building a Framework for Assurance, Accountability, and Action

Ranks security practices and conditions of nuclear materials in 176 countries, including those without weapons-grade material. Calls for international dialog on priorities, benchmarking, holding states accountable, and strengthening state stewardship

The Global Risks Report 2016, 11th Edition

Now in its 11th edition, The Global Risks Report 2016 draws attention to ways that global risks could evolve and interact in the next decade. The year 2016 marks a forceful departure from past findings, as the risks about which the Report has been warning over the past decade are starting to manifest themselves in new, sometimes unexpected ways and harm people, institutions and economies. Warming climate is likely to raise this year's temperature to 1° Celsius above the pre-industrial era, 60 million people, equivalent to the world's 24th largest country and largest number in recent history, are forcibly displaced, and crimes in cyberspace cost the global economy an estimated US$445 billion, higher than many economies' national incomes. In this context, the Reportcalls for action to build resilience – the "resilience imperative" – and identifies practical examples of how it could be done.The Report also steps back and explores how emerging global risks and major trends, such as climate change, the rise of cyber dependence and income and wealth disparity are impacting already-strained societies by highlighting three clusters of risks as Risks in Focus. As resilience building is helped by the ability to analyse global risks from the perspective of specific stakeholders, the Report also analyses the significance of global risks to the business community at a regional and country-level