Could a CAMELS downgrade model improve off-site surveillance?

The Federal Reserve’s off-site surveillance system includes two econometric models that are collectively known as the System for Estimating Examination Ratings (SEER). One model, the SEER risk rank model, uses the latest financial statements to estimate the probability that each Fed-supervised bank will fail in the next two years. The other component, the SEER rating model, uses the latest financial statements to produce a “shadow” CAMELS rating for each supervised bank. Banks identified as risky by either model receive closer supervisory scrutiny than other state-member banks.> Because many of the banks flagged by the SEER models have already tumbled into poor condition and, hence, would already be receiving considerable supervisory attention, we developed an alternative model to identify safe-and-sound banks that potentially are headed for financial distress. Such a model could help supervisors allocate scarce on- and off-site resources by pointing out banks not currently under scrutiny that need watching.> It is possible, however, that our alternative model improves little over the current SEER framework. All three models—the SEER risk rank model, the SEER rating model, and our downgrade model—produce ordinal rankings based on overall risk. If the financial factors that explain CAMELS downgrades differ little from the financial factors that explain failures or CAMELS ratings, then all three models will produce similar risk ratings and, hence, similar watch lists of one- and two-rated banks.> We find only slight differences in the ability of the three models to spot emerging financial distress among safe-and-sound banks. In out-of-sample tests for 1992 through 1998, the watch lists produced by the downgrade model outperform the watch lists produced by the SEER models by only a small margin. We conclude that, in relatively tranquil banking environments like the 1990s, a downgrade model adds little value in off-site surveillance. We caution, however, that a downgrade model might prove useful in more turbulent banking times.Bank supervision

Underascertainment of radiotherapy receipt in Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registry data

BACKGROUND: Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) registry data have been used to suggest underuse and disparities in receipt of radiotherapy. Prior studies have cautioned that SEER may underascertain radiotherapy but lacked adequate representation to assess whether underascertainment varies by geography or patient sociodemographic characteristics. The authors sought to determine rates and correlates of underascertainment of radiotherapy in recent SEER data. METHODS: The authors evaluated data from 2290 survey respondents with nonmetastatic breast cancer, aged 20 to 79 years, diagnosed from June of 2005 to February 2007 in Detroit and Los Angeles and reported to SEER registries (73% response rate). Survey responses regarding treatment and sociodemographic factors were merged with SEER data. The authors compared radiotherapy receipt as reported by patients versus SEER records. The authors then assessed correlates of radiotherapy underascertainment in SEER. RESULTS: Of 1292 patients who reported receiving radiotherapy, 273 were coded as not receiving radiotherapy in SEER (underascertained). Underascertainment was more common in Los Angeles than in Detroit (32.0% vs 11.25%, P < .001). On multivariate analysis, radiotherapy underascertainment was significantly associated in each registry (Los Angeles, Detroit) with stage ( P = .008, P = .026), income ( P < .001, P = .050), mastectomy receipt ( P < .001, P < .001), chemotherapy receipt ( P < .001, P = .045), and diagnosis at a hospital that was not accredited by the American College of Surgeons ( P < .001, P < .001). In Los Angeles, additional significant variables included younger age ( P < .001), nonprivate insurance ( P < .001), and delayed receipt of radiotherapy ( P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: SEER registry data as currently collected may not be an appropriate source for documentation of rates of radiotherapy receipt or investigation of geographic variation in the radiation treatment of breast cancer. Cancer 2011;. © 2011 American Cancer Society. This study found that the Los Angeles Cancer Surveillance Program, among the largest Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) registries, coded that radiation was not received in nearly a third of cases in which breast cancer patients themselves reported radiation receipt, whereas ascertainment of radiation receipt was much more complete in another large SEER registry, that of the Metropolitan Detroit Cancer Surveillance System. SEER registry data as currently collected may not be an appropriate source for documentation of rates of radiotherapy receipt or geographic disparities.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/90319/1/26295_ftp.pd

Mean and fluctuating velocity contours and acoustic characteristics of subsonic and supersonic jets

Shadowgraph photographs of subsonic and supersonic jet

Forecasting age-related changes in breast cancer mortality among white and black US women: A functional approach

The disparity in breast cancer mortality rates among white and black US women is widening with higher mortality rates among black women. We apply functional time series models on age-specific breast cancer mortality rates for each group of women, and forecast their mortality curves using exponential smoothing state-space models with damping. The data were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) program of the US (SEER, 2007). Mortality data were obtained from the National Centre for Health Statistics (NCHS) available on the SEER*Stat database. We use annual unadjusted breast cancer mortality rates from 1969 to 2004 in 5-year age groups (45-49, 50-54, 55-59, 60-64, 65-69, 70-74, 75-79, 80-84). Age-specific mortality curves were obtained using nonparametric smoothing methods. The curves are then decomposed using functional principal components and we fit functional time series models with four basis functions for each population separately. The curves from each population are forecast and prediction intervals are calculated. Twenty-year forecasts indicate an over-all decline in future breast cancer mortality rates for both groups of women. This decline is steeper among white women aged 55-73 and black women aged 60-84. For black women under 55 years of age, the forecast rates are relatively stable indicating no significant change in future breast cancer mortality rates among young black women in the next 20 years.Breast cancer mortality, racial and ethnic disparities, screening, trends, forecasting, functional data analysis

Adjuvant chemotherapy and survival among patients 70 years of age and younger with node-negative breast cancer and the 21-gene recurrence score of 26-30

BACKGROUND: The benefits of chemotherapy in node-negative, hormone receptor-positive, and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-negative breast cancer patients with the 21-gene recurrence score (RS) of 18-30, particularly those with RS 26-30, are not known. METHODS: Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) data, we retrospectively identified 29,137 breast cancer patients with the 21-gene RS of 18-30 diagnosed between 2004 and 2015. Mortality risks according to the RS and chemotherapy use were compared by the Kaplan-Meier method and Cox\u27s proportional hazards model. RESULTS: Among the breast cancer patients with the RS 18-30, 21% of them had RS 26-30. Compared to breast cancer patients with RS 18-25, patients with RS 26-30 had more aggressive tumor characteristics and chemotherapy use and increased risk of breast cancer-specific mortality and overall mortality. In breast cancer patients who were aged ≤ 70 years and had RS of 26-30, chemotherapy administration was associated with a 32% lower risk of breast cancer-specific mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 0.68; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.47-0.99) and a 42% lower risk of overall mortality (HR, 0.58; 95% CI, 0.44-0.76). Survival benefits were most pronounced in breast cancer patients who were younger or had grade III tumor. CONCLUSIONS: The 21-gene RS of 18-30 showed heterogeneous outcomes, and the RS 26-30 was a significant prognostic factor for an increased risk of mortality. Adjuvant chemotherapy could improve the survival of node-negative, hormone receptor-positive, and HER2-negative breast cancer patients with the 21-gene RS 26-30 and should be considered for patients, especially younger patients or patients with high-grade tumors

HaTS: Hardware-Assisted Transaction Scheduler

In this paper we present HaTS, a Hardware-assisted Transaction Scheduler. HaTS improves performance of concurrent applications by classifying the executions of their atomic blocks (or in-memory transactions) into scheduling queues, according to their so called conflict indicators. The goal is to group those transactions that are conflicting while letting non-conflicting transactions proceed in parallel. Two core innovations characterize HaTS. First, HaTS does not assume the availability of precise information associated with incoming transactions in order to proceed with the classification. It relaxes this assumption by exploiting the inherent conflict resolution provided by Hardware Transactional Memory (HTM). Second, HaTS dynamically adjusts the number of the scheduling queues in order to capture the actual application contention level. Performance results using the STAMP benchmark suite show up to 2x improvement over state-of-the-art HTM-based scheduling techniques