Impacts of model calibration on high-latitude land-surface processes: PILPS 2(e) calibration/validation experiments

In the PILPS 2(e) experiment, the Snow Atmosphere Soil Transfer (SAST) land-surface scheme developed from the Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS) showed difficulty in accurately simulating the patterns and quantities of runoff resulting from heavy snowmelt in the high-latitude Torne-Kalix River basin (shared by Sweden and Finland). This difficulty exposes the model deficiency in runoff formations. After representing subsurface runoff and calibrating the parameters, the accuracy of hydrograph prediction improved substantially. However, even with the accurate precipitation and runoff, the predicted soil moisture and its variation were highly "model-dependent". Knowledge obtained from the experiment is discussed. © 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved

Evidence Suggesting That Obesity Prevention Measures May Improve Prostate Cancer Outcomes Using Data from a Prospective Randomized Trial

Purpose. Increasing body mass index (BMI) is associated with higher risk prostate cancer (PC) at presentation. Whether increasing BMI also prompts earlier salvage androgen suppression therapy (sAST) is unknown. Materials and Methods. Between 1995 and 2001, 206 men with unfavorable risk PC were treated with radiation therapy (RT) or RT and six months of androgen suppression therapy in a randomized controlled trial (RCT). 108 sustained PSA failure; 51 received sAST for PSA approaching 10 ng/mL; 49 with BMI data comprised the study cohort. A multivariable Cox regression analysis identified pretreatment factors associated with earlier sAST receipt. Results:. Increasing BMI prompted earlier sAST (median years: 3.7 for overweight/obese, 6.9 for normal weight; adjusted hazard ratio (AHR): 1.11; 95% CI: 1.04, 1.18; P = 0.002) as did high versus other risk PC (median: 3.2 versus 5.2 years; AHR: 2.01; 95% CI: 1.05, 3.83; P = 0.03). Increasing median time to sAST was observed for overweight/obese men with high versus other risk PC and for normal-weight men with any risk PC being 2.3, 4.6, and 6.9 years, respectively (P < 0.001 for trend). Conclusion:. Increasing BMI was associated with earlier sAST. A RCT evaluating whether BMI reduction delays or eliminates need for sAST is warranted

Propriedades psicométricas de uma escala para medir a gestão da vergonha em adolescentes (Moss-Sast)

(Ahmed, 1999) to measure shame management in adolescents in situations of aggression toward peers. The study was conducted with a sample of 700 students from public secondary schools (N= 700) located in a northwestern state municipality of Mexico. Results enabled to obtain an empirically sustainable measuring model formed by two factors: Acknowledgment and Displacement (X2 = 5.16, p= 0.27; CMIN= 1.29; GFI= .98; CFI= .99; NFI= .97; RMSEA= .05). Evidence was obtained to show that the instrument has criterion validity since it is capable to differentiate between subgroups of students with and without reports of bullying in both factors, Acknowledgment (t= 3.49, gl= 137, p< .001) and Displacement (t= 3.63, gl= 137, p< .001). It was concluded that the results strengthen the original factorial structure of the scale and show the usefulness of the same, both for inquiring about emotions related to moral development and for identifying students involved as aggressors in bullying situations.Se establecieron las evidencias de validez y confiabilidad de la adaptación del cuestionario MOSS-SAST (Ahmed, 1999) para medir el manejo de la vergüenza en adolescentes ante situaciones de agresión hacia los pares. El estudio se realizó en una muestra de estudiantes de escuelas secundarias públicas (N= 700) ubicadas en un municipio de un estado del noroeste de México. Los resultados permitieron obtener un modelo de medición empíricamente sustentable formado por nueve ítems agrupados en dos factores: Reconocimiento y Desplazamiento (c2 = 5.16, p= 0.27; CMIN= 1.29; GFI= .98; CFI= .99; NFI= .97; RMSEA= .05). El instrumento cuenta con evidencias de validez de criterio, ya que establece la diferencia en los factores de reconocimiento (t= 3.49, gl= 137, p< .001) y desplazamiento (t= 3.63, gl= 137, p< .001) en subgrupos de estudiantes con y sin reportes de bullying. Se concluyó que los resultados fortalecen la estructura factorial original de la escala y muestran su utilidad, tanto en la indagación de emociones relacionadas con el del desarrollo moral, como en la identificación de estudiantes involucrados como agresores en situaciones de bullying.Foram estabelecidas as evidências de validade e confiabilidade da adaptação do Questionário MOSS-SAST (Ahmed, 1999) para medir a gestão da vergonha em adolescentes ante situações de agressão contra os pares. O estudo foi realizado com uma amostra de estudantes do ensino fundamental e médio (N=700) de um município do noroeste do México. Os resultados permitiram obter um modelo de medição empiricamente sustentável, formado por nove itens agrupados em dois fatores: reconhecimento e deslocamento (c2 = 5.16, p= 0.27; CMIN= 1.29; GFI= .98; CFI= .99; NFI= .97; RMSEA= .05). O instrumento conta com evidências de validade de critério já que estabelece a diferença nos fatores de reconhecimento (t= 3.49, gl= 137, p< .001) e deslocamento (t= 3.63, gl= 137, p< .001) em subgrupos de estudantes com e sem relatos de bullying. Conclui-se que os resultados fortalecem a estrutura fatorial original da escala e mostram sua utilidade, tanto na indagação de emoções relacionadas com o desenvolvimento moral quanto na identificação de estudantes envolvidos como agressores em situações de bullying

Operational snow modeling: Addressing the challenges of an energy balance model for National Weather Service forecasts

Prediction of snowmelt has become a critical issue in much of the western United States given the increasing demand for water supply, changing snow cover patterns, and the subsequent requirement of optimal reservoir operation. The increasing importance of hydrologic predictions necessitates that traditional forecasting systems be re-evaluated periodically to assure continued evolution of the operational systems given scientific advancements in hydrology. The National Weather Service (NWS) SNOW17, a conceptually based model used for operational prediction of snowmelt, has been relatively unchanged for decades. In this study, the Snow-Atmosphere-Soil Transfer (SAST) model, which employs the energy balance method, is evaluated against the SNOW17 for the simulation of seasonal snowpack (both accumulation and melt) and basin discharge. We investigate model performance over a 13-year period using data from two basins within the Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed located in southwestern Idaho. Both models are coupled to the NWS runoff model [SACramento Soil Moisture Accounting model (SACSMA)] to simulate basin streamflow. Results indicate that while in many years simulated snowpack and streamflow are similar between the two modeling systems, the SAST more often overestimates SWE during the spring due to a lack of mid-winter melt in the model. The SAST also had more rapid spring melt rates than the SNOW17, leading to larger errors in the timing and amount of discharge on average. In general, the simpler SNOW17 performed consistently well, and in several years, better than, the SAST model. Input requirements and related uncertainties, and to a lesser extent calibration, are likely to be primary factors affecting the implementation of an energy balance model in operational streamflow prediction. © 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

The Gaia Data Release 1 parallaxes and the distance scale of Galactic planetary nebulae

In this paper we gauge the potentiality of Gaia in the distance scale calibration of planetary nebulae (PNe) by assessing the impact of DR1 parallaxes of central stars of Galactic PNe (CSPNe) against known physical relations. For selected PNe targets with state-of-the-art data on angular sizes and fluxes, we derive the distance-dependent parameters of the classical distance scales, i.e., physical radii and ionized masses, from DR1 parallaxes; we propagate the uncertainties in the estimated quantities and evaluate their statistical properties in the presence of large relative parallax errors; we populate the statistical distance scale diagrams with this sample and discuss its significance in light of existing data and current calibrations. We glean from DR1 parallaxes 8 CSPNe with S/N$>$1. We show that this set of potential calibrators doubles the number of extant trigonometric parallaxes (from HST and ground-based), and increases by two orders of magnitude the domain of physical parameters probed previously. We then use the combined sample of suitable trigonometric parallaxes to fit the physical-radius-to-surface-brightness relation. This distance scale calibration, although preliminary, appears solid on statistical grounds, and suggestive of new PNe physics. With the tenfold improvement in PNe number statistics and astrometric accuracy expected from future Gaia releases the new distance scale, already very intriguing, will be definitively constrained.Comment: New Astronomy, in pres

Condition number analysis and preconditioning of the finite cell method

The (Isogeometric) Finite Cell Method - in which a domain is immersed in a structured background mesh - suffers from conditioning problems when cells with small volume fractions occur. In this contribution, we establish a rigorous scaling relation between the condition number of (I)FCM system matrices and the smallest cell volume fraction. Ill-conditioning stems either from basis functions being small on cells with small volume fractions, or from basis functions being nearly linearly dependent on such cells. Based on these two sources of ill-conditioning, an algebraic preconditioning technique is developed, which is referred to as Symmetric Incomplete Permuted Inverse Cholesky (SIPIC). A detailed numerical investigation of the effectivity of the SIPIC preconditioner in improving (I)FCM condition numbers and in improving the convergence speed and accuracy of iterative solvers is presented for the Poisson problem and for two- and three-dimensional problems in linear elasticity, in which Nitche's method is applied in either the normal or tangential direction. The accuracy of the preconditioned iterative solver enables mesh convergence studies of the finite cell method

Validation de terrain d'un test ELISA de compétition pour la détection de la péripneumonie contagieuse des bovins au Botswana

Le test ELISA de compétition, récemment décrit pour détecter la présence de la péripneumonie, a été utilisé au Laboratoire national vétérinaire du Botswana à Gaborone. L'échantillonnage de sérums a compris un nombre significatif de sérums récoltés durant l'épizootie de 1995 et ensuite en 1998 après que la totalité du cheptel bovin de la zone infectée ait été abattue. Les résultats obtenus ont montré l'excellente spécificité du test avec un seul sérum négatif, sur 895, ayant un titre légèrement supérieur au seuil de positivité. La comparaison avec deux autres tests, la fixation du complément et l'agglutination sur lame, avec des sérums récoltés durant l'épizootie de péripneumonie en 1995 a montré que ces trois tests avaient des sensibilités équivalentes. Les principaux avantages de l'ELISA de compétition sont sa spécificité, sa reproductibilité et la possibilité qu'il offre de pouvoir effectuer un contrôle de qualité fiable en étant utilisé avec des logiciels développés au niveau international comme l'ELISA Data Interchange (EDI). (Résumé d'auteur

Near Infrared Spectra of Compact Planetary Nebulae

This paper continues our study of the behaviour of near infrared helium recombination lines in planetary nebula. We find that the 1.7007um 4^3D-3^3P HeI line is a good measure of the HeI recombination rate, since it varies smoothly with the effective temperature of the central star. We were unable to reproduce the observed data using detailed photoionisation models at both low and high effective temperatures, but plausible explanations for the difference exist for both. We therefore conclude that this line could be used as an indicator of the effective temperature in obscured nebula. We also characterised the nature of the molecular hydrogen emission present in a smaller subset of our sample. The results are consistent with previous data indicating that ultraviolet excitation rather than shocks is the main cause of the molecular hydrogen emission in planetary nebulae.Comment: Accepted for publication in MNRA

Snow model verification using ensemble prediction and operational benchmarks

Hydrologic model evaluations have traditionally focused on measuring how closely the model can simulate various characteristics of historical observations. Although advancing hydrologic forecasting is an often-stated goal of numerous modeling studies, testing in a forecasting mode is seldom undertaken, limiting information derived from these analyses. One can overcome this limitation through generation, and subsequent analysis, of ensemble hindcasts. In this study, long-range ensemble hindcasts are generated for the available period of record for a basin in southwestern Idaho for the purpose of evaluating the Snow-Atmosphere-Soil Transfer (SAST) model against the current operational benchmark, the National Weather Service's (NWS) snow accumulation and ablation model SNOW17. Both snow models were coupled with the NWS operational rainfall runoff model and ensembles of seasonal discharge and weekly snow water equivalent (SWE) were evaluated. Ensemble predictions from both the SAST and SNOW17 models were better than climatology forecasts, for the period studied. In most cases, the accuracy of the SAST-generated predictions was similar to the SNOW17-generated predictions, except during periods of significant melting. Differences in model performance are partially attributed to initial condition errors. After updating the SWE state in the snow models with the observed SWE, the forecasts were improved during the first 2-4 weeks of the forecast window and the skills were essentially equal in both forecasting systems for the study watershed. Climate dominated the forecast uncertainty in the latter part of the forecast window while initial conditions controlled the forecast skill in the first 3-4 weeks of the forecast. The use of hindcasting in the snow model analysis revealed that, given the dominance of the initial conditions on forecast skill, streamflow predictions will be most improved through the use of state updating. © 2008 American Meteorological Society