Simplicity, scientific inference and econometric modelling

Economic Schools;Econometric Models;Economic Methodology

An Overview of the Use of Neural Networks for Data Mining Tasks

In the recent years the area of data mining has experienced a considerable demand for technologies that extract knowledge from large and complex data sources. There is a substantial commercial interest as well as research investigations in the area that aim to develop new and improved approaches for extracting information, relationships, and patterns from datasets. Artificial Neural Networks (NN) are popular biologically inspired intelligent methodologies, whose classification, prediction and pattern recognition capabilities have been utilised successfully in many areas, including science, engineering, medicine, business, banking, telecommunication, and many other fields. This paper highlights from a data mining perspective the implementation of NN, using supervised and unsupervised learning, for pattern recognition, classification, prediction and cluster analysis, and focuses the discussion on their usage in bioinformatics and financial data analysis tasks

Sequential Two-Player Games with Ambiguity

If players' beliefs are strictly non-additive, the Dempster-Shafer updating rule can be used to define beliefs off the equilibrium path. We define an equilibrium concept in sequential two-person games where players update their beliefs with the Dempster-Shafer updating rule. We show that in the limit as uncertainty tends to zero, our equilibrium approximates Bayesian Nash equilibrium by imposing context-dependent constraints on beliefs under uncertainty.

Beyond Dualisms in Methodology: An Integrative Design Research Medium "MAPS" and some Reflections

Design research is an academic issue and increasingly an essential success factor for industrial, organizational and social innovation. The fierce rejection of 1st generation design methods in the early 1970s resulted in the postmodernist attitude of "no methods", and subsequently, after more than a decade, in the strong adoption of scientific methods, or "the" scientific method, for design research. The current situation regarding methodology is characterized by unproductive dualisms such as scientific methods vs. designerly methods, normative methods vs. descriptive methods, research vs. design. The potential of the early (1st generation) methods is neglected and the practical usefulness of design research is impeded. The suggestion for 2nd generation methods as discussed by Rittel and others has hardly been taken up in design. The development of a methodological tool / medium for research through design – MAPS – (which is the central part of the paper) presents the cause and catalyst for some reflections about the usability / desirability / usefulness of methodical support for the design (research) process. Keywords: Integrative Design Research Medium, Research Through Design, MAPS, Methodology</p

Re-reading Jevons's Principles of Science - Induction Redux

In this paper I try to substantiate the thesis that Jevons may have been too harsh on the vices of induction and generously optimistic about the virtues of deduction, as discussed, primarily, in his magnum opus, The Principles of Science [6]. With this aim in mind the paper attempts to suggest (modern), recursion theoretic, theoretical technologies that could reduce and, under conditions that I claim would be acceptable to Jevons, even eliminate the inductive indeterminacies that he had emphasised.Jevons, Inductiion, Inductive Inference, Bayes's Rule

IMACLIM-R: a modelling framework to simulate sustainable development pathways

To assess the sustainability of future development pathways requires models to compute long-run Economy-Energy-Environment scenarios. This paper presents the IMACLIM-R framework, aimed at investigating climate, energy and development inter-related issues. The model was built in an attempt to address three methodological challenges: to incoporate knowledge from economics and engineering sciences, to support the dialogue with and between stakeholders, to produce scenarios with a strong consistency, concerning especially the interplay between development patterns, technology and growth. These goals led to the development of a recursive structure articulating a static general equilibrium framework including innovative features and sectorspecific dynamic modules now concerning energy, transportation and industry. This paper provides the general rationale of the model and the description of all its components.

Progress in Behavioral Game Theory

Is game theory meant to describe actual choices by people and institutions or not? It is remarkable how much game theory has been done while largely ignoring this question. The seminal book by von Neumann and Morgenstern, The Theory of Games and Economic Behavior, was clearly about how rational players would play against others they knew were rational. In more recent work, game theorists are not always explicit about what they aim to describe or advise. At one extreme, highly mathematical analyses have proposed rationality requirements that people and firms are probably not smart enough to satisfy in everyday decisions. At the other extreme, adaptive and evolutionary approaches use very simple models-mostly developed to describe nonhuman animals-in which players may not realize they are playing a game at all. When game theory does aim to describe behavior, it often proceeds with a disturbingly low ratio of careful observation to theorizing

Are foreign currency markets interdependent? evidence from data mining technologies

This study uses two data mining methodologies: Classification and Regression Trees (C&RT) and Generalized Rule Induction (GRI) to uncover patterns among daily cash closing prices of eight currency markets. Data from 2000 through 2009 is used, with the last year held out to test the robustness of the rules found in the previous nine years. Results from the two methodologies are contrasted. A number of rules which perform well in both the training and testing years are discussed as empirical evidence of interdependence among foreign currency markets. The mechanical rules identified in this paper can usefully supplement other types of financial modeling of foreign currencies.Foreign Currency Markets

APPLYING CHAID TO IDENTIFY THE ACCOUNTING-FINANCIAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE MOST PROFITABLE REAL ESTATE COMPANIES IN SPAIN

The aim of this study is the determination, from an empirical perspective, of the accounting and financial features which could condition financial profitability of real estate companies, to identify the performances that guarantee its permanency in the current marketplace, characterized by the world economic crisis, specially in Spain, whose housing sector represents an important contributor to the economic growth. Although at a theoretical level the DuPont Model establishes the relationships between a group of accounting ratios and financial profitability. This paper uses a sample of 5,484 Spanish real estate companies to quantify these relationships and to extract the most relevant ones and to obtain the patterns of the most profitable companies. We use ROE to measure profitability and we analyze various independent variables about solvency, liquidity, activity, turnover, financial equilibrium and investment structure. The main contribution is of methodological nature, as we have applied statistics tools that do not require initial hypotheses on the distribution of the variables, by using a data mining technique of classification and regression tree based on rule induction algorithms known as CHAID. The study provides quantitatively success profiles by means of a set of rules describing the patterns of the most profitable companies.CHAID; financial profitability; classification trees; accounting ratios; Spain.