19,942 research outputs found
Robust portfolio selection problem under temperature uncertainty
In this paper, we consider a portfolio selection problem under temperature uncertainty. Weather derivatives based on different temperature indices are used to protect against undesirable temperature events. We introduce stochastic and robust portfolio optimization models using weather derivatives. The investorsâ different risk preferences are incorporated into the portfolio allocation problem. The robust investment decisions are derived in view of discrete and continuous sets that the underlying uncertain data in temperature model belong. We illustrate main features of the robust approach and performance of the portfolio optimization models using real market data. In particular, we analyze impact of various model parameters on different robust investment decisions
A variable neighborhood search simheuristic for project portfolio selection under uncertainty
With limited nancial resources, decision-makers in rms and governments face the task of selecting the best portfolio of projects to invest in. As the pool of project proposals increases and more realistic constraints are considered, the problem becomes NP-hard. Thus, metaheuristics have been employed for solving large instances of the project portfolio selection problem (PPSP). However, most of the existing works do not account for uncertainty. This paper contributes to close this gap by analyzing a stochastic version of the PPSP: the goal is to maximize the expected net present value of the inversion, while considering random cash ows and discount rates in future periods, as well as a rich set of constraints including the maximum risk allowed. To solve this stochastic PPSP, a simulation-optimization algorithm is introduced. Our approach integrates a variable neighborhood search metaheuristic with Monte Carlo simulation. A series of computational experiments contribute to validate our approach and illustrate how the solutions vary as the level of uncertainty increases
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A two-stage stochastic programming with recourse model for determining robust planting plans in horticulture
A two-stage stochastic programming with recourse model for the problem of determining optimal planting plans for a vegetable crop is presented in this paper. Uncertainty caused by factors such as weather on yields is a major influence on many systems arising in horticulture. Traditional linear programming models are generally unsatisfactory in dealing with the uncertainty and produce solutions that are considered to involve an unacceptable level of risk. The first stage of the model relates to finding a planting plan which is common to all scenarios and the second stage is concerned with deriving a harvesting schedule for each scenario. Solutions are obtained for a range of risk aversion factors that not only result in greater expected profit compared to the corresponding deterministic model, but also are more robust
Bootstrap Robust Prescriptive Analytics
We address the problem of prescribing an optimal decision in a framework
where its cost depends on uncertain problem parameters that need to be
learned from data. Earlier work by Bertsimas and Kallus (2014) transforms
classical machine learning methods that merely predict from supervised
training data into prescriptive methods
taking optimal decisions specific to a particular covariate context .
Their prescriptive methods factor in additional observed contextual information
on a potentially large number of covariates to take context specific
actions which are superior to any static decision . Any naive
use of limited training data may, however, lead to gullible decisions
over-calibrated to one particular data set. In this paper, we borrow ideas from
distributionally robust optimization and the statistical bootstrap of Efron
(1982) to propose two novel prescriptive methods based on (nw) Nadaraya-Watson
and (nn) nearest-neighbors learning which safeguard against overfitting and
lead to improved out-of-sample performance. Both resulting robust prescriptive
methods reduce to tractable convex optimization problems and enjoy a limited
disappointment on bootstrap data. We illustrate the data-driven decision-making
framework and our novel robustness notion on a small news vendor problem as
well as a small portfolio allocation problem
Responding to Threats of Climate Change Mega-Catastrophes
There is a low but uncertain probability that climate change could trigger âmega-catastrophes,â severe and at least partly irreversible adverse effects across broad regions. This paper first discusses the state of current knowledge and the defining characteristics of potential climate change mega-catastrophes. While some of these characteristics present difficulties for using standard rational choice methods to evaluate response options, there is still a need to balance the benefits and costs of different possible responses with appropriate attention to the uncertainties. To that end, we present a qualitative analysis of three options for mitigating the risk of climate mega-catastrophesâdrastic abatement of greenhouse gas missions, development and implementation of geoengineering, and large-scale ex ante adaptationâ against the criteria of efficacy, cost, robustness, and flexibility. We discuss the composition of a sound portfolio of initial investments in reducing the risk of climate change mega-catastrophes.climate change, catastrophe, risk, decisionmaking under uncertainty
Safe Approximations of Chance Constraints Using Historical Data
This paper proposes a new way to construct uncertainty sets for robust optimization. Our approach uses the available historical data for the uncertain parameters and is based on goodness-of-fit statistics. It guarantees that the probability that the uncertain constraint holds is at least the prescribed value. Compared to existing safe approximation methods for chance constraints, our approach directly uses the historical-data information and leads to tighter uncertainty sets and therefore to better objective values. This improvement is significant especially when the number of uncertain parameters is low. Other advantages of our approach are that it can handle joint chance constraints easily, it can deal with uncertain parameters that are dependent, and it can be extended to nonlinear inequalities. Several numerical examples illustrate the validity of our approach.robust optimization;chance constraint;phi-divergence;goodness-of-fit statistics
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