Robust State Space Filtering under Incremental Model Perturbations Subject to a Relative Entropy Tolerance

This paper considers robust filtering for a nominal Gaussian state-space model, when a relative entropy tolerance is applied to each time increment of a dynamical model. The problem is formulated as a dynamic minimax game where the maximizer adopts a myopic strategy. This game is shown to admit a saddle point whose structure is characterized by applying and extending results presented earlier in [1] for static least-squares estimation. The resulting minimax filter takes the form of a risk-sensitive filter with a time varying risk sensitivity parameter, which depends on the tolerance bound applied to the model dynamics and observations at the corresponding time index. The least-favorable model is constructed and used to evaluate the performance of alternative filters. Simulations comparing the proposed risk-sensitive filter to a standard Kalman filter show a significant performance advantage when applied to the least-favorable model, and only a small performance loss for the nominal model

Robust Kalman Filtering under Model Perturbations

We consider a family of divergence-based minimax approaches to perform robust filtering. The mismodeling budget, or tolerance, is specified at each time increment of the model. More precisely, all possible model increments belong to a ball which is formed by placing a bound on the Tau-divergence family between the actual and the nominal model increment. Then, the robust filter is obtained by minimizing the mean square error according to the least favorable model in that ball. It turns out that the solution is a family of Kalman like filters. Their gain matrix is updated according to a risk sensitive like iteration where the risk sensitivity parameter is now time varying. As a consequence, we also extend the risk sensitive filter to a family of risk sensitive like filters according to the Tau-divergence family

Model Predictive Control meets robust Kalman filtering

Model Predictive Control (MPC) is the principal control technique used in industrial applications. Although it offers distinguishable qualities that make it ideal for industrial applications, it can be questioned its robustness regarding model uncertainties and external noises. In this paper we propose a robust MPC controller that merges the simplicity in the design of MPC with added robustness. In particular, our control system stems from the idea of adding robustness in the prediction phase of the algorithm through a specific robust Kalman filter recently introduced. Notably, the overall result is an algorithm very similar to classic MPC but that also provides the user with the possibility to tune the robustness of the control. To test the ability of the controller to deal with errors in modeling, we consider a servomechanism system characterized by nonlinear dynamics

Robust Kalman Filtering: Asymptotic Analysis of the Least Favorable Model

We consider a robust filtering problem where the robust filter is designed according to the least favorable model belonging to a ball about the nominal model. In this approach, the ball radius specifies the modeling error tolerance and the least favorable model is computed by performing a Riccati-like backward recursion. We show that this recursion converges provided that the tolerance is sufficiently small

Distributionally Robust LQG control under Distributed Uncertainty

A new paradigm is proposed for the robustification of the LQG controller against distributional uncertainties on the noise process. Our controller optimizes the closed-loop performances in the worst possible scenario under the constraint that the noise distributional aberrance does not exceed a certain threshold limiting the relative entropy pseudo-distance between the actual noise distribution the nominal one. The main novelty is that the bounds on the distributional aberrance can be arbitrarily distributed along the whole disturbance trajectory. We discuss why this can, in principle, be a substantial advantage and we provide simulation results that substantiate such a principle

On the Robustness of the Bayes and Wiener Estimators under Model Uncertainty

This paper deals with the robust estimation problem of a signal given noisy observations. We assume that the actual statistics of the signal and observations belong to a ball about the nominal statistics. This ball is formed by placing a bound on the Tau-divergence family between the actual and the nominal statistics. Then, the robust estimator is obtained by minimizing the mean square error according to the least favorable statistics in that ball. Therefore, we obtain a divergence family-based minimax approach to robust estimation. We show in the case that the signal and observations have no dynamics, the Bayes estimator is the optimal solution. Moreover, in the dynamic case, the optimal offline estimator is the noncausal Wiener filter

Factor analysis with finite data

Factor analysis aims to describe high dimensional random vectors by means of a small number of unknown common factors. In mathematical terms, it is required to decompose the covariance matrix $\Sigma$ of the random vector as the sum of a diagonal matrix $D$ | accounting for the idiosyncratic noise in the data | and a low rank matrix $R$ | accounting for the variance of the common factors | in such a way that the rank of $R$ is as small as possible so that the number of common factors is minimal. In practice, however, the matrix $\Sigma$ is unknown and must be replaced by its estimate, i.e. the sample covariance, which comes from a finite amount of data. This paper provides a strategy to account for the uncertainty in the estimation of $\Sigma$ in the factor analysis problem.Comment: Draft, the final version will appear in the 56th IEEE Conference on Decision and Control, Melbourne, Australia, 201

Convergence analysis of a family of robust Kalman filters based on the contraction principle

In this paper we analyze the convergence of a family of robust Kalman filters. For each filter of this family the model uncertainty is tuned according to the so called tolerance parameter. Assuming that the corresponding state-space model is reachable and observable, we show that the corresponding Riccati-like mapping is strictly contractive provided that the tolerance is sufficiently small, accordingly the filter converges

Factor Models with Real Data: a Robust Estimation of the Number of Factors

Factor models are a very efficient way to describe high dimensional vectors of data in terms of a small number of common relevant factors. This problem, which is of fundamental importance in many disciplines, is usually reformulated in mathematical terms as follows. We are given the covariance matrix Sigma of the available data. Sigma must be additively decomposed as the sum of two positive semidefinite matrices D and L: D | that accounts for the idiosyncratic noise affecting the knowledge of each component of the available vector of data | must be diagonal and L must have the smallest possible rank in order to describe the available data in terms of the smallest possible number of independent factors. In practice, however, the matrix Sigma is never known and therefore it must be estimated from the data so that only an approximation of Sigma is actually available. This paper discusses the issues that arise from this uncertainty and provides a strategy to deal with the problem of robustly estimating the number of factors.Comment: arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1708.0040