Robust optimization for tree-structured stochastic network design

Best Paper Award, Computational Sustainability Track</p

XOR-Sampling for Network Design with Correlated Stochastic Events

Many network optimization problems can be formulated as stochastic network design problems in which edges are present or absent stochastically. Furthermore, protective actions can guarantee that edges will remain present. We consider the problem of finding the optimal protection strategy under a budget limit in order to maximize some connectivity measurements of the network. Previous approaches rely on the assumption that edges are independent. In this paper, we consider a more realistic setting where multiple edges are not independent due to natural disasters or regional events that make the states of multiple edges stochastically correlated. We use Markov Random Fields to model the correlation and define a new stochastic network design framework. We provide a novel algorithm based on Sample Average Approximation (SAA) coupled with a Gibbs or XOR sampler. The experimental results on real road network data show that the policies produced by SAA with the XOR sampler have higher quality and lower variance compared to SAA with Gibbs sampler.Comment: In Proceedings of the Twenty-sixth International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence (IJCAI-17). The first two authors contribute equall

Solving Satisfiability Modulo Counting for Symbolic and Statistical AI Integration With Provable Guarantees

Satisfiability Modulo Counting (SMC) encompasses problems that require both symbolic decision-making and statistical reasoning. Its general formulation captures many real-world problems at the intersection of symbolic and statistical Artificial Intelligence. SMC searches for policy interventions to control probabilistic outcomes. Solving SMC is challenging because of its highly intractable nature($\text{NP}^{\text{PP}}$-complete), incorporating statistical inference and symbolic reasoning. Previous research on SMC solving lacks provable guarantees and/or suffers from sub-optimal empirical performance, especially when combinatorial constraints are present. We propose XOR-SMC, a polynomial algorithm with access to NP-oracles, to solve highly intractable SMC problems with constant approximation guarantees. XOR-SMC transforms the highly intractable SMC into satisfiability problems, by replacing the model counting in SMC with SAT formulae subject to randomized XOR constraints. Experiments on solving important SMC problems in AI for social good demonstrate that XOR-SMC finds solutions close to the true optimum, outperforming several baselines which struggle to find good approximations for the intractable model counting in SMC

Robust Optimization for Tree-Structured Stochastic Network Design

Stochastic network design is a general framework for optimizing network connectivity. It has several applications in computational sustainability including spatial conservation planning, pre-disaster network preparation, and river network optimization. A common assumption in previous work has been made that network parameters (e.g., probability of species colonization) are precisely known, which is unrealistic in real- world settings. We therefore address the robust river network design problem where the goal is to optimize river connectivity for fish movement by removing barriers. We assume that fish passability probabilities are known only imprecisely, but are within some interval bounds. We then develop a planning approach that computes the policies with either high robust ratio or low regret. Empirically, our approach scales well to large river networks. We also provide insights into the solutions generated by our robust approach, which has significantly higher robust ratio than the baseline solution with mean parameter estimates