Can the US Minimum Data Set Be Used for Predicting Admissions to Acute Care Facilities?

This paper is intended to give an overview of Knowledge Discovery in Large Datasets (KDD) and data mining applications in healthcare particularly as related to the Minimum Data Set, a resident assessment tool which is used in US long-term care facilities. The US Health Care Finance Administration, which mandates the use of this tool, has accumulated massive warehouses of MDS data. The pressure in healthcare to increase efficiency and effectiveness while improving patient outcomes requires that we find new ways to harness these vast resources. The intent of this preliminary study design paper is to discuss the development of an approach which utilizes the MDS, in conjunction with KDD and classification algorithms, in an attempt to predict admission from a long-term care facility to an acute care facility. The use of acute care services by long term care residents is a negative outcome, potentially avoidable, and expensive. The value of the MDS warehouse can be realized by the use of the stored data in ways that can improve patient outcomes and avoid the use of expensive acute care services. This study, when completed, will test whether the MDS warehouse can be used to describe patient outcomes and possibly be of predictive value

Can the US Minimum Data Set Be Used for Predicting Admissions to Acute Care Facilities?

This paper is intended to give an overview of Knowledge Discovery in Large Datasets (KDD) and data mining applications in healthcare particularly as related to the Minimum Data Set, a resident assessment tool which is used in US long-term care facilities. The US Health Care Finance Administration, which mandates the use of this tool, has accumulated massive warehouses of MDS data. The pressure in healthcare to increase efficiency and effectiveness while improving patient outcomes requires that we find new ways to harness these vast resources. The intent of this preliminary study design paper is to discuss the development of an approach which utilizes the MDS, in conjunction with KDD and classification algorithms, in an attempt to predict admission from a long-term care facility to an acute care facility. The use of acute care services by long term care residents is a negative outcome, potentially avoidable, and expensive. The value of the MDS warehouse can be realized by the use of the stored data in ways that can improve patient outcomes and avoid the use of expensive acute care services. This study, when completed, will test whether the MDS warehouse can be used to describe patient outcomes and possibly be of predictive value

Small and Medium Enterprises in the Agriculture Value Chain: Opportunities and Recommendations

Authored in collaboration with Oxfam, this report analyzes the effectiveness of development programs in addressing the effectiveness of SME agricultural value chains, and dissect whether these interventions would be Social Enterprises (SEs) in agriculture in Asia. The paper makes recommendations for donors and development agencies that seek to support SEs in agriculture

Cooperative Wool Marketing Pools and Warehouses: Industry Update, Issues and Options

In 1981, there were 158 cooperative wool marketing pools and 9 cooperative warehouses. Pools operate a few days each year to assemble and sell wool. Warehouses operate daily and also grade, store, and blend wool to buyer specifications. Pools frequently sell without knowledge of grade and clean fiber content. Producer bargaining power is also limited by declining wool production, large variation in pool membership and volume, and overlapping marketing territories among warehouses. Processing, consolidating pool and warehouse marketing, and changing pool pricing to reflect clean fiber content are options to lower marketing costs and better market power.Wool, cooperative, pool, Agribusiness,

Theory of storage, inventory and volatility in the LME base metals

The theory of storage, as related to commodities, makes two predictions involving the quantity of the commodity held in inventory. When inventory is low (i.e. a situation of scarcity), spot prices will exceed futures prices, and spot price volatility will exceed futures price volatility. Conversely, during periods of no scarcity, both spot prices and spot price volatility will remain relatively subdued. We test these predictions for the six base metals traded on the London Metal Exchange (aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin and zinc), and find strong validation for the theory. Including Chinese inventories reported by the Shanghai Futures Exchange strengthens the relationship further. We also introduce the concepts of excess volatility, inventory-implied spot price and inventory-implied spot volatility and illustrate some applications

Three Essays on the Risk Management of Logistics Finance

중국은 이미 세계에서 주요 생산국과 소비국 중의 하나가 되었다. 2016년 등록한 기업이 하루 평균 15,000개 정도로서 중국 경제의 빠른 발전에 기여했다. 또 한편으로는 중소기업의 금융문제는 갈수록 어려워지고 있다. 이와 같은 문제는 중소기업에 도덕적 리스크, 정보비대칭, 영업익스포져 등 의 요소가 존재하기 때문에 은행의 중소기업에 대한 신용평가가 높지 않기 때문이다. 게다가 대출 절차가 갈수록 복잡해지고 은행이 수익을 얻기가 어려워져 중소기업도 대출을 받기가 힘들고 투자 환경이 어려워지고 있다. 이런 상황에서 물류금융이 새로운 금융방식으로서 나타났다. 물류금융은 물류산업의 세 당사자 - 중소기업, 은행 및 물류기업 - 에게 효과적인 금융플랫폼을 제공할 수 있다. 물류금융은 중소기업의 금융문제를 해결할 뿐만 아니라 은행과 물류기업에게 새로운 이윤창출 방식을 제공할 수 있을 것이다. 이에 따라 세 당사자에게 모두 이익을 가져다 줄 가능성을 가져왔다. 그러나 한편으로는 새로운 리스크도 함께 왔다. 물류금융에서 발생하는 리스크문제를 해결하기 위한 방안을 찾기 위해 이 논문은 세가지 관점에서 연구를 진행해 세 개의 에세이로 분석했다. 첫 번째, 게임이론을 바탕으로 물류금융의 신용리스크 관리를 연구한다. (EssayⅠ) 첫 번째 에세이에서는 먼저 은행 및 물류기업이 직면한 신용리스크를 분석한다. 다음으로 게임이론을 이용하여 은행과 중소기업 간의 관계를 분석하고, 물류기업을 도입해서 세 당사자 간의 게임적인 방식을 분석한다. 이를 통해 은행이 감독하는 확률, 중소기업의 신뢰도의 확률 및 물류기업이 계약을 이행하는 확률을 찾아 신용리스크의 이론적인 근거를 제시한다. 중소기업과 물류기업의 신용불안요소 및 위약요소를 찾는 과정에서 아래와 같은 정책을 제언했다. 1. 은행과 물류기업이 중소기업 신용관리 플랫폼을 설리하고 모든 정보를 공유한다. 2. 은행과 물류기업의 협력관계를 강화해야 한다. 3. 은행이 고객의 재무자료 데이터뱅크 시스템을 완성시키고 감독비용을 최소화 시킨다. 4. 물류기업과 중소기업의 감독관리를 강화하고 중소기업 신용불량 상황의 발생을 최소화시킨다. 두 번째, 통합신용보장방식에 있어 은행의 물류기업 리스크 평가 모델을 설정한다. (Essay II) 두 번째 에세이에서는 먼저 통합신용보장방식에서 은행이 직면하는 리스크를 변별하고 다음으로 기업의 재무지표를 활용하여 요인분석모델을 설정한다. 물류기업 금융리스크의 주요 지표를 분석하고 물류기업의 금융리스크를 계량화 분석한다. 통합신용보장방식에서 은행의 기업 선택표준을 제공한다. 물류기업의 금융리스크는 주로 경영현황, 부채상환 능력, 수익성, 성장성 등에서 비롯된다. 이 논문은 통합신용보장방식에서 은행에게 기업의 선택표준을 제공하며 이를 통해 은행의 물류기업에 대한 심사효율성과 신뢰성을 향상시킬 수 있다. 이 논문은 은행이 물류기업의 담보계좌(担保账户)를 설립하고 물류기업의 재무 분석 플랫폼을 구축해야 한다고 제안한다. 그리고 상장한 물류기업의 연도 보고서를 충실히 작성하고, 은행의 기업관리기관, 세무기관 간의 소통체계를 강화해야 하고 물류기업의 재무리스크 관리를 강화해야 한다. 그리고 물류기업의 거래대금에 대한 관리를 강화해야 한다. 세 번째, 통합신용보장방식에서 물류기업의 중소기업 선택방법을 연구한다. (Essay III) 세 번째 에세이에서는 먼저 물류기업이 직면한 리스크를 변별하고, AHP과 LP기법을 활용하여, 창고의 한정량과 대출한도를 제약조건으로 하는 물류기업의 중소기업에 대한 적정 대출 규모 모델을 설정한다. 그 결과 물류기업의 이윤 극대화를 보장하기 위하여 아래와 같이 몇 가지 제안을 한다. 1. 물류기업 창고의 한정량에 대한 경보시스템을 구축하고 담보물의 저장 공간을 확보해야 한다. 2. 담보물에 대한 평가체계를 완성하고 물류기업 담보물가치의 적절성을 확보해야 한다. 3. 중소기업에 대한 신용평가 플랫폼을 구축하고 물류기업 대출의 안전성을 확보해야 한다. 위 내용을 전체적으로 보면 이 논문은 물류금융의 리스크 관리상에 세 가지 문제를 연구했다. 그리고 물류금융리스크의 관리에 대해 전략적인 제안을 제시했다. 이와 같이 보완된 물류금융은 중국경제를 지속적으로 발전시킬 수 있다고 예측한다.Korean Abstract viii INTRODUCTION: General Remarks & Literature Review 1 1.1 Background and Objective 1 1.2 Scope and Methodology of the Study 5 1.3 Structure and Contents 6 1.4 Literature Review 8 1.4.1 The Theoretical Study of Logistics Finance 8 1.4.2 Study of Logistics Finance Risk Management 13 ESSAY I: The Credit Risk Management of Three Parties in Logistics Finance-Using Game Theory 17 1. Introduction 17 1.1 Background and Objective 17 1.2 Scope and Methodology of the Study 18 1.2.1 Scope of the Study 18 1.2.2 Methodology of the Study 18 1.3 Structure and Contents 21 1.4 Literature Review 22 2. Identification of Logistics Financial Credit Risk 25 2.1 Relationship among the Three Principal Delegates 25 2.2 Identification of Credit Risk 26 2.2.1 The Credit Risk of Bank 26 2.2.2 The Credit Risk of Logistics Company 27 2.2.3 The Cause of the Credit Risk 27 3. Game Analysis 30 3.1 Game Analysis between Banks and SMEs 30 3.1.1 Hypothesis 31 3.1.2 Model Building 32 3.1.3 Model Solving 33 3.2 Tripartite Game Model 35 3.2.1 Model Hypothesis 35 3.2.2 Model Building 38 3.2.3 Model Solving 39 4. Policy Implication 45 5. Summary of Essay I 45 ESSAY II: The Risk Management of Bank Selecting Logistics Company Under Unified Credit Guarantee Mode 47 1. Introduction 47 1.1 Background and Objective 47 1.2 Scope and Methodology of the Study 48 1.2.1 Scope of the Study 48 1.2.2 Methodology of the Study 49 1.3 Structure and Contents 51 1.4 Literature Review 52 2. The Risk of Banks under Unified Guarantee Credit Mode 55 2.1. Operational Process of Unified Guarantee Credit Mode 55 2.2. The Risk of Bank under Unified Guarantee Credit Mode 56 3. Index Establishment 57 3.1 Bank Assessment Contents 57 3.2 Establishment of Financial Index System 59 3.3 Explanation of Data Indicators 61 4. Factor Analysis 70 4.1 Data Collect 70 4.2 Model Building 70 4.3 Model Solving 72 4.4 Model Comprehensive Evaluation 75 5. Policy Implication 76 6. Summary of Essay II 77 ESSAY III: The Risk Management of Logistics Company Selecting SME Under Unified Credit Guarantee Mode 79 1. Introduction 79 1.1 Background and Objective 79 1.2 Scope and Methodology of the Study 79 1.2.1 Scope of the Study 79 1.2.2 Methodology of the Study 80 1.3 Structure and Contents 84 1.4 Literature Review 85 2. Risk Identification of Logistics Company 88 2.1 Credit Risk from SME 89 2.2 Risks from Mortgage 89 2.3 Risks of Internal 90 2.4 Risks from External 90 3. Model Building and Solving 90 3.1 AHP Analysis 90 3.1.1 Analytic Hierarchy Chart of SME's Risk Assessment 90 3.1.2 Hypothesis 92 3.2 LP Analysis 96 3.2.1 The Establishment of Objective Function 96 3.2.2 Restrictions 97 3.2.3 Model Calculating 98 4. Policy Implication 99 5. Summary of Essay III 100 Summary and Conclusion 102 1.1 Summary of Research 102 1.2 Conclusion of Research 105 1.3 Research Prospects in the Future 108 Reference 110 Acknowledgment 118Docto

Characteristics of Agricultural Commodity Financing Based on Warehouse Receipt System in Indonesia

Agricultural commodities financing based on warehouse receipt system is empirically beneficial to support rural agricultural businesses. However, the success of the system is influenced by a number of factors. The objective of this study is to characterize the factors of the warehouse receipt financing system where it is implemented in agricultural commodity in Indonesia.  The research was conducted by means of a survey that collected data from respondents with knowledge of or experience on financing of commodities such as coffee, pepper, rice and maize. Partial Least Squares-Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) was used as the analysis model. The research results indicate that the warehouse receipt financing system suitable for development in Indonesia is characterized by social and commercial value. The product value must be supported by product attributes to ensure the availability, acceptability, accessibility, affordability and supply of information to provide awareness and trust in accordance with the values built in the financing product. This study can also prove that adding adaptability to product variables increases market acceptance. Keywords: Agricultural Commodities, Structured Financing, Warehouse Receipt System DOI: 10.7176/JESD/12-6-06 Publication date:March 31st 202

Dealing with commodity price uncertainty

Liberalization in commodity markets has brought profound changes in the way price risks are allocated and managed in commodity subsectors. Price risks are increasingly allocated to private traders and farmers rather than absorbed by the government. The success of market reform depends on the ability of the emerging private sector to make full use of the available range of modern commodity marketing, price risk management and financing instruments. Because farmers do not generally have access to these instruments, intermediaries must be developed. Larger private traders and banks are in the best position to become these intermediaries. Preconditions needed for accessing modern commodity marketing, price risk management, and financing instruments are: a) creating an appropriate legal, regulatory, and institutional framework; b) reducing government intervention; c) providing training and raising awareness; and d) improving creditworthiness and reducing performance risk. The use of commodity derivative instruments to hedge commodity price risk is not new. The private sectors in many Asian and Latin American countries have been using commodity futures and options for some time. More recently, commodity derivative instruments are being used increasingly in several African countries and many economies in transition. And several developing and transition economies have sought to establish commodity derivative exchanges.Markets and Market Access,Payment Systems&Infrastructure,Environmental Economics&Policies,Commodities,International Terrorism&Counterterrorism,Access to Markets,Crops&Crop Management Systems,Commodities,Environmental Economics&Policies,Markets and Market Access