Human Motion Trajectory Prediction: A Survey

With growing numbers of intelligent autonomous systems in human environments, the ability of such systems to perceive, understand and anticipate human behavior becomes increasingly important. Specifically, predicting future positions of dynamic agents and planning considering such predictions are key tasks for self-driving vehicles, service robots and advanced surveillance systems. This paper provides a survey of human motion trajectory prediction. We review, analyze and structure a large selection of work from different communities and propose a taxonomy that categorizes existing methods based on the motion modeling approach and level of contextual information used. We provide an overview of the existing datasets and performance metrics. We discuss limitations of the state of the art and outline directions for further research.Comment: Submitted to the International Journal of Robotics Research (IJRR), 37 page

The Underlying Return Generating Factors for REIT Returns: An Application of Independent Component Analysis

Multi-factor approaches to analysis of real estate returns have, since the pioneering work of Chan, Hendershott and Sanders (1990), emphasised a macro-variables approach in preference to the latent factor approach that formed the original basis of the arbitrage pricing theory. With increasing use of high frequency data and trading strategies and with a growing emphasis on the risks of extreme events, the macro-variable procedure has some deficiencies. This paper explores a third way, with the use of an alternative to the standard principal components approach – independent components analysis (ICA). ICA seeks higher moment independence and maximises in relation to a chosen risk parameter. We apply an ICA based on kurtosis maximisation to weekly US REIT data using a kurtosis maximising algorithm. The results show that ICA is successful in capturing the kurtosis characteristics of REIT returns, offering possibilities for the development of risk management strategies that are sensitive to extreme events and tail distributions.Real Estate Returns, REIT, ICA, Independent Component Analysis

Revisiting the empirical fundamental relationship of traffic flow for highways using a causal econometric approach

The fundamental relationship of traffic flow is empirically estimated by fitting a regression curve to a cloud of observations of traffic variables. Such estimates, however, may suffer from the confounding/endogeneity bias due to omitted variables such as driving behaviour and weather. To this end, this paper adopts a causal approach to obtain an unbiased estimate of the fundamental flow-density relationship using traffic detector data. In particular, we apply a Bayesian non-parametric spline-based regression approach with instrumental variables to adjust for the aforementioned confounding bias. The proposed approach is benchmarked against standard curve-fitting methods in estimating the flow-density relationship for three highway bottlenecks in the United States. Our empirical results suggest that the saturated (or hypercongested) regime of the estimated flow-density relationship using correlational curve fitting methods may be severely biased, which in turn leads to biased estimates of important traffic control inputs such as capacity and capacity-drop. We emphasise that our causal approach is based on the physical laws of vehicle movement in a traffic stream as opposed to a demand-supply framework adopted in the economics literature. By doing so, we also aim to conciliate the engineering and economics approaches to this empirical problem. Our results, thus, have important implications both for traffic engineers and transport economists

Nitrogen Incorporation in CH_4-N_2 Photochemical Aerosol Produced by Far Ultraviolet Irradiation

Nitrile incorporation into Titan aerosol accompanying hydrocarbon chemistry is thought to be driven by extreme UV wavelengths (λ120 nm is presently unaccounted for in atmospheric photochemical models. We suggest that reaction with CH radicals produced from CH_4 photolysis may provide a mechanism for incorporating N into the molecular structure of the aerosol. Further work is needed to understand the chemistry involved, as these processes may have significant implications for how we view prebiotic chemistry on early Earth and similar planets. Key Words: Titan—Photochemical aerosol—CH_4-N_2 photolysis—Far UV—Nitrogen activation

Machine Learning-based Methods for Driver Identification and Behavior Assessment: Applications for CAN and Floating Car Data

The exponential growth of car generated data, the increased connectivity, and the advances in artificial intelligence (AI), enable novel mobility applications. This dissertation focuses on two use-cases of driving data, namely distraction detection and driver identification (ID). Low and medium-income countries account for 93% of traffic deaths; moreover, a major contributing factor to road crashes is distracted driving. Motivated by this, the first part of this thesis explores the possibility of an easy-to-deploy solution to distracted driving detection. Most of the related work uses sophisticated sensors or cameras, which raises privacy concerns and increases the cost. Therefore a machine learning (ML) approach is proposed that only uses signals from the CAN-bus and the inertial measurement unit (IMU). It is then evaluated against a hand-annotated dataset of 13 drivers and delivers reasonable accuracy. This approach is limited in detecting short-term distractions but demonstrates that a viable solution is possible. In the second part, the focus is on the effective identification of drivers using their driving behavior. The aim is to address the shortcomings of the state-of-the-art methods. First, a driver ID mechanism based on discriminative classifiers is used to find a set of suitable signals and features. It uses five signals from the CAN-bus, with hand-engineered features, which is an improvement from current state-of-the-art that mainly focused on external sensors. The second approach is based on Gaussian mixture models (GMMs), although it uses two signals and fewer features, it shows improved accuracy. In this system, the enrollment of a new driver does not require retraining of the models, which was a limitation in the previous approach. In order to reduce the amount of training data a Triplet network is used to train a deep neural network (DNN) that learns to discriminate drivers. The training of the DNN does not require any driving data from the target set of drivers. The DNN encodes pieces of driving data to an embedding space so that in this space examples of the same driver will appear closer to each other and far from examples of other drivers. This technique reduces the amount of data needed for accurate prediction to under a minute of driving data. These three solutions are validated against a real-world dataset of 57 drivers. Lastly, the possibility of a driver ID system is explored that only uses floating car data (FCD), in particular, GPS data from smartphones. A DNN architecture is then designed that encodes the routes, origin, and destination coordinates as well as various other features computed based on contextual information. The proposed model is then evaluated against a dataset of 678 drivers and shows high accuracy. In a nutshell, this work demonstrates that proper driver ID is achievable. The constraints imposed by the use-case and data availability negatively affect the performance; in such cases, the efficient use of the available data is crucial