Identification of probabilities

Within psychology, neuroscience and artificial intelligence, there has been increasing interest in the proposal that the brain builds probabilistic models of sensory and linguistic input: that is, to infer a probabilistic model from a sample. The practical problems of such inference are substantial: the brain has limited data and restricted computational resources. But there is a more fundamental question: is the problem of inferring a probabilistic model from a sample possible even in principle? We explore this question and find some surprisingly positive and general results. First, for a broad class of probability distributions characterized by computability restrictions, we specify a learning algorithm that will almost surely identify a probability distribution in the limit given a finite i.i.d. sample of sufficient but unknown length. This is similarly shown to hold for sequences generated by a broad class of Markov chains, subject to computability assumptions. The technical tool is the strong law of large numbers. Second, for a large class of dependent sequences, we specify an algorithm which identifies in the limit a computable measure for which the sequence is typical, in the sense of Martin-Löf (there may be more than one such measure). The technical tool is the theory of Kolmogorov complexity. We analyze the associated predictions in both cases. We also briefly consider special cases, including language learning, and wider theoretical implications for psychology

Algorithmic Identification of Probabilities

TThe problem is to identify a probability associated with a set of natural numbers, given an infinite data sequence of elements from the set. If the given sequence is drawn i.i.d. and the probability mass function involved (the target) belongs to a computably enumerable (c.e.) or co-computably enumerable (co-c.e.) set of computable probability mass functions, then there is an algorithm to almost surely identify the target in the limit. The technical tool is the strong law of large numbers. If the set is finite and the elements of the sequence are dependent while the sequence is typical in the sense of Martin-L\"of for at least one measure belonging to a c.e. or co-c.e. set of computable measures, then there is an algorithm to identify in the limit a computable measure for which the sequence is typical (there may be more than one such measure). The technical tool is the theory of Kolmogorov complexity. We give the algorithms and consider the associated predictions.Comment: 19 pages LaTeX.Corrected errors and rewrote the entire paper. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1208.500

Learning categorial grammars

In 1967 E. M. Gold published a paper in which the language classes from the Chomsky-hierarchy were analyzed in terms of learnability, in the technical sense of identification in the limit. His results were mostly negative, and perhaps because of this his work had little impact on linguistics. In the early eighties there was renewed interest in the paradigm, mainly because of work by Angluin and Wright. Around the same time, Arikawa and his co-workers refined the paradigm by applying it to so-called Elementary Formal Systems. By making use of this approach Takeshi Shinohara was able to come up with an impressive result; any class of context-sensitive grammars with a bound on its number of rules is learnable. Some linguistically motivated work on learnability also appeared from this point on, most notably Wexler & Culicover 1980 and Kanazawa 1994. The latter investigates the learnability of various classes of categorial grammar, inspired by work by Buszkowski and Penn, and raises some interesting questions. We follow up on this work by exploring complexity issues relevant to learning these classes, answering an open question from Kanazawa 1994, and applying the same kind of approach to obtain (non)learnable classes of Combinatory Categorial Grammars, Tree Adjoining Grammars, Minimalist grammars, Generalized Quantifiers, and some variants of Lambek Grammars. We also discuss work on learning tree languages and its application to learning Dependency Grammars. Our main conclusions are: - formal learning theory is relevant to linguistics, - identification in the limit is feasible for non-trivial classes, - the `Shinohara approach' -i.e., placing a numerical bound on the complexity of a grammar- can lead to a learnable class, but this completely depends on the specific nature of the formalism and the notion of complexity. We give examples of natural classes of commonly used linguistic formalisms that resist this kind of approach, - learning is hard work. Our results indicate that learning even `simple' classes of languages requires a lot of computational effort, - dealing with structure (derivation-, dependency-) languages instead of string languages offers a useful and promising approach to learnabilty in a linguistic contex

Absolutely No Free Lunches!

This paper is concerned with learners who aim to learn patterns in infinite binary sequences: shown longer and longer initial segments of a binary sequence, they either attempt to predict whether the next bit will be a 0 or will be a 1 or they issue forecast probabilities for these events. Several variants of this problem are considered. In each case, a no-free-lunch result of the following form is established: the problem of learning is a formidably difficult one, in that no matter what method is pursued, failure is incomparably more common that success; and difficult choices must be faced in choosing a method of learning, since no approach dominates all others in its range of success. In the simplest case, the comparison of the set of situations in which a method fails and the set of situations in which it succeeds is a matter of cardinality (countable vs. uncountable); in other cases, it is a topological matter (meagre vs. co-meagre) or a hybrid computational-topological matter (effectively meagre vs. effectively co-meagre)

Trial and error mathematics: Dialectical systems and completions of theories

This paper is part of a project that is based on the notion of a dialectical system, introduced by Magari as a way of capturing trial and error mathematics. In Amidei et al. (2016, Rev. Symb. Logic, 9, 1–26) and Amidei et al. (2016, Rev. Symb. Logic, 9, 299–324), we investigated the expressive and computational power of dialectical systems, and we compared them to a new class of systems, that of quasi-dialectical systems, that enrich Magari’s systems with a natural mechanism of revision. In the present paper we consider a third class of systems, that of p-dialectical systems, that naturally combine features coming from the two other cases. We prove several results about p-dialectical systems and the sets that they represent. Then we focus on the completions of first order theories. In doing so, we consider systems with connectives, i.e. systems that encode the rules of classical logic. We show that any consistent system with connectives represents the completion of a given theory. We prove that dialectical and q-dialectical systems coincide with respect to the completions that they can represent. Yet, p-dialectical systems are more powerful; we exhibit a p-dialectical system representing a completion of Peano Arithmetic that is neither dialectical nor q-dialectical

Doing Away With Defaults: Motivation for a Gradient Parameter Space

In this thesis, I propose a reconceptualization of the traditional syntactic parameter space of the principles and parameters framework (Chomsky, 1981). In lieu of binary parameter settings, parameter values exist on a gradient plane where a learner’s knowledge of their language is encoded in their confidence that a particular parametric target value, and thus grammatical construction of an encountered sentence, is likely to be licensed by their target grammar. First, I discuss other learnability models in the classic parameter space which lack either psychological plausibility, theoretical consistency, or some combination of the two. Then, I argue for the Gradient Parameter Space as an alternative to discrete binary parameters. Finally, I present findings from a preliminary implementation of a learner that operates in a gradient space, the Non-Defaults Learner (NDL). The findings suggest the Gradient Parameter Space is a viable alternative to the traditional, discrete binary parameter space, and at least one learner in a gradient space a viable alternative to default learners and classical triggering learners, which makes better use of the linguistic input available to the learner