Inequality, Migrations, and Black Swans: The Case of Italy

This dissertation focuses on an empirical analysis on how inequality, internal and international mobility, and exogenous shocks interact with each other. With a focus on Italy, I provide an important contribution to existing literature on migration and inequality, through a comparative analysis at the subnational level. This characteristic of my work provides a unique opportunity to better understand inequality within countries. Using rigorous econometric and spatial techniques, as well as qualitative material, gathered from case studies and reports from international organizations, my dissertation contributes to the literature in social sciences on the causes and effects of inequality and on how it is shaped by state capacity, sudden events like earthquakes, international and internal mobility, and personal networks. Following the obtained results, I posit that it is up to local and national governments to implement effective policies of redistribution of wealth and services to reduce horizontal and vertical inequality. Furthermore, I believe particular attention should be dedicated to the least wealthy areas of the country, like the Center and the South, historically and consistently less developed than the North

Doctor of Philosophy

dissertationAnthropogenic climate change presents a pressing need for a deepened understanding of the factors contributing to vulnerability to natural hazards. This study contributes to understanding of the social dimensions of rapid-onset natural hazards by addressing the following research questions: How have historical developmental processes shaped hazards vulnerability? What are mechanisms underlying household vulnerability to rapid-onset hazards? How do large-scale, rapid-onset natural disasters influence long-term development outcomes for subjected communities? This study's first empirical analysis focuses on livelihoods as mechanisms of household resilience from Hurricane Mitch, utilizing the Nicaraguan Living Standards and Measurement Survey (LSMS). Findings indicate specific livelihood profiles to variably predict long-term recovery of disaster impacted households, with households reliant upon agricultural wage production exhibiting a lowered improvement in condition in comparison with households reliant on other livelihoods. This study's second empirical analysis, examining the hurricane's influence on international migration, finds international migration following Hurricane Mitch to be associated with heightened positive selectivity according to capital access. Although these specific livelihood related resilience mechanisms indicate resilience to be associated with high levels of capital ownership, analysis of recovery outcomes at the municipality level indicates a reduction in poverty in impacted communities and increases in consumption shares of those in lower consuming segments. The findings of this study's separate analysis, which appear at odds, are reconciled in discussion of other likely influencing factors

Feasibility Study: Social Protection in South Central Somalia

In recent years, there has been a growing recognition by policy makers and the international development community that longer-term social protection programming has the potential to reduce poverty and inequality and serve as a foundation upon which, viable livelihoods can be built. In many countries, specially those that are frequently affected by climatic and conflict hazards, this has led to calls for a shift in approach away from interventions thatsimply address the symptoms of household vulnerability towards those which deal with the causes. For more than two decades Somalia has lurched from one humanitarian crisis to another. This debate around the potential of social protection is therefore particularly acute, as years of humanitarian programming seem to have had little impact on increasing household resilience to shocks. Furthermore, the country still ranks 165 out of the 170 countries included in the UN's Human Development Index, and number one on the US Fund for Peace 'Failed State Index'.A consortium of agencies working in Somalia commissioned this study: Adeso, ACF, DRC and Save the Children. The study is intended to further the discussion on the rationale and practicalities of social protection in South Central Somalia, and to serve as a starting point for the debate around moving away from short-term responses towards longer-term social protection interventions by these agencies, and others.The report comprises six parts: Part 1 describes the political economy in South Central Somalia and highlights some key challengesfor humanitarian actors; Part 2 defines the general concept of social protection and looks at the global evidence of the impact of social protection; Part 3 looks at social protection programs in African countries (particularly those in the Somalia region), and also in fragile states; Part 4 looks at current social protection mechanisms in South Central Somalia; Part 5 describes the actions that are currently needed before humanitarian programming can become predictable, and Part 6 summarizes the way forward, including recommendations and the conclusions from the study

Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation: Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

This Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX) has been jointly coordinated by Working Groups I (WGI) and II (WGII) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The report focuses on the relationship between climate change and extreme weather and climate events, the impacts of such events, and the strategies to manage the associated risks. The IPCC was jointly established in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), in particular to assess in a comprehensive, objective, and transparent manner all the relevant scientific, technical, and socioeconomic information to contribute in understanding the scientific basis of risk of human-induced climate change, the potential impacts, and the adaptation and mitigation options. Beginning in 1990, the IPCC has produced a series of Assessment Reports, Special Reports, Technical Papers, methodologies, and other key documents which have since become the standard references for policymakers and scientists.This Special Report, in particular, contributes to frame the challenge of dealing with extreme weather and climate events as an issue in decisionmaking under uncertainty, analyzing response in the context of risk management. The report consists of nine chapters, covering risk management; observed and projected changes in extreme weather and climate events; exposure and vulnerability to as well as losses resulting from such events; adaptation options from the local to the international scale; the role of sustainable development in modulating risks; and insights from specific case studies

Uncertainty of Governmental Relief and the Crowding out of Insurance

This paper discusses the problem of crowding out of insurance by co-existing governmental relief programs - so-called 'charity hazard' - in a context of different institutional schemes of governmental relief in Austria and Germany. We test empirically whether an assured partial relief scheme (as in Austria) drives a stronger crowding out of private insurance than a scheme promising full relief which is subject to ad hoc political decision making (as in Germany). Our general finding is that the institutional design of governmental relief programs significantly affects the demand for private natural hazard insurance.Insurance demand, governmental relief, natural hazards

A Place Worth Protecting: Rethinking Cost-Benefit Analysis Under FEMA’s Flood-Mitigation Programs

As climate change threatens coastal areas with more frequent and intense flooding, the federal government has adopted a greater focus on mitigating the effects of natural disasters. While neighborhoods differ in terms of physical risk exposure, they also differ in social vulnerability—the characteristics that influence a community’s ability to safely weather a storm, withstand disruptions to employment and housing, navigate the rebuilding process, and eventually return to normal. Funding for federal flood-mitigation projects administered by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) is currently distributed according to a simple metric—the benefits of a project must outweigh its costs. FEMA’s approach to cost-benefit analysis (CBA), however, primarily measures physical risk to property while neglecting the long-term, intangible social costs incurred by vulnerable communities. This approach has resulted in higher-property-value communities receiving a disproportionate share of mitigation infrastructure, while lower-income communities are either left without protection or relocated. The distribution of mitigation funding therefore plays a role in exacerbating place-based inequality. This Comment proposes ways in which FEMA could better account for the distributional effects of its projects and promote efficient policies that take into account the full range of social and economic costs associated with natural disasters. It begins by detailing how FEMA neglects to consider distributional outcomes in its mitigation programs, consistent with the single-minded focus on economic efficiency prevalent in federal regulatory decision-making. Next, it surveys empirical research documenting the ways in which FEMA’s use of CBA exacerbates wealth inequality and social vulnerability to flooding. The Comment then considers various legal avenues for redressing the disparate impacts resulting from FEMA’s policies, concluding that none are likely to be successful. Instead, it offers five policy adjustments that FEMA could implement in its cost-benefit methodology to ensure that resources for flood mitigation are more equitably distributed, emphasizing ways in which these better accord with the agency’s own focus on economic efficiency