Boosting Stock Price Prediction with Anticipated Macro Policy Changes

Prediction of stock prices plays a significant role in aiding the decision-making of investors. Considering its importance, a growing literature has emerged trying to forecast stock prices with improved accuracy. In this study, we introduce an innovative approach for forecasting stock prices with greater accuracy. We incorporate external economic environment-related information along with stock prices. In our novel approach, we improve the performance of stock price prediction by taking into account variations due to future expected macroeconomic policy changes as investors adjust their current behavior ahead of time based on expected future macroeconomic policy changes. Furthermore, we incorporate macroeconomic variables along with historical stock prices to make predictions. Results from this strongly support the inclusion of future economic policy changes along with current macroeconomic information. We confirm the supremacy of our method over the conventional approach using several tree-based machine-learning algorithms. Results are strongly conclusive across various machine learning models. Our preferred model outperforms the conventional approach with an RMSE value of 1.61 compared to an RMSE value of 1.75 from the conventional approach

Input Parameters Comparison on NARX Neural Network to Increase the Accuracy of Stock Prediction

The trading of stocks is one of the activities carried out all over the world. To make the most profit, analysis is required, so the trader could determine whether to buy or sell stocks at the right moment and at the right price. Traditionally, technical analysis which is mathematically processed based on historical price data can be used. Parallel to technological development, the analysis of stock price and its forecasting can also be accomplished by using computer algorithms e.g. machine learning. In this study, Nonlinear Auto Regressive network with eXogenous inputs (NARX) neural network simulations were performed to predict the stock index prices. Experiments were implemented using various configurations of input parameters consisting of Open, High, Low, Closed prices in conjunction with several technical indicators for maximum accuracy. The simulations were carried out by using stock index data sets namely JKSE (Indonesia Jakarta index) and N225 (Japan Nikkei index). This work showed that the best input configurations can predict the future 13 days Close prices with 0.016 and 0.064 mean absolute error (MAE) for JKSE and N225 respectively.Â

Utilizing Machine Learning to Reassess the Predictability of Bank Stocks

Objectives: Accurate prediction of stock market returns is a very challenging task due to the volatile and non-linear nature of the financial stock markets. In this work, we consider conventional time series analysis techniques with additional information from the Google Trend website to predict stock price returns. We further utilize a machine learning algorithm, namely Random Forest, to predict the next day closing price of four Greek systemic banks. Methods/Analysis: The financial data considered in this work comprise Open, Close prices of stocks and Trading Volume. In the context of our analysis, these data are further used to create new variables that serve as additional inputs to the proposed machine learning based model. Specifically, we consider variables for each of the banks in the dataset, such as 7 DAYS MA,14 DAYS MA, 21 DAYS MA, 7 DAYS STD DEV and Volume. One step ahead out of sample prediction following the rolling window approach has been applied. Performance evaluation of the proposed model has been done using standard strategic indicators: RMSE and MAPE. Findings: Our results depict that the proposed models effectively predict the stock market prices, providing insight about the applicability of the proposed methodology scheme to various stock market price predictions. Novelty /Improvement: The originality of this study is that Machine Learning Methods highlighted by the Random Forest Technique were used to forecast the closing price of each stock in the Banking Sector for the following trading session. Doi: 10.28991/ESJ-2023-07-03-04 Full Text: PD

OPTIMASI PARAMETER INPUT PADA ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK UNTUK MENINGKATKAN AKURASI PREDIKSI INDEKS HARGA SAHAM

Stock trading is one of the businesses that has been done worldwide. In order to gain the maximum profit, accurate analysis is needed, so a trader can decide to buy and sell stock at the perfect time and price. Conventionally, two analyses are employed, namely fundamental and technical. Technical analysis is obtained based on historical data that is processed mathematically. Along with technology development, stock price analysis and prediction can be performed with the help of computational algorithms, such as machine learning. In this research, Artificial Neural Network simulations to produce accurate stock price predictions were carried out. Experiments are performed by using various input parameters, such as moving average filters, in order to produce the best accuracy. Simulations are completed with stock index datasets that represent three continents, i.e. NYA (America, USA), GDAXI (Europe, Germany), and JKSE (Asia, Indonesia). This work proposes a new method, which is the utilization of input parameters combinations of C, O, L, H, MA-5 of C, MA-5 of O, and the average of O & C prices. Furthermore, this proposed scheme is also compared to previous work done by Khorram et al, where this new work shows more accurate results

MLGaze: Machine Learning-Based Analysis of Gaze Error Patterns in Consumer Eye Tracking Systems

Analyzing the gaze accuracy characteristics of an eye tracker is a critical task as its gaze data is frequently affected by non-ideal operating conditions in various consumer eye tracking applications. In this study, gaze error patterns produced by a commercial eye tracking device were studied with the help of machine learning algorithms, such as classifiers and regression models. Gaze data were collected from a group of participants under multiple conditions that commonly affect eye trackers operating on desktop and handheld platforms. These conditions (referred here as error sources) include user distance, head pose, and eye-tracker pose variations, and the collected gaze data were used to train the classifier and regression models. It was seen that while the impact of the different error sources on gaze data characteristics were nearly impossible to distinguish by visual inspection or from data statistics, machine learning models were successful in identifying the impact of the different error sources and predicting the variability in gaze error levels due to these conditions. The objective of this study was to investigate the efficacy of machine learning methods towards the detection and prediction of gaze error patterns, which would enable an in-depth understanding of the data quality and reliability of eye trackers under unconstrained operating conditions. Coding resources for all the machine learning methods adopted in this study were included in an open repository named MLGaze to allow researchers to replicate the principles presented here using data from their own eye trackers.Comment: https://github.com/anuradhakar49/MLGaz