The Early Statistical Years: 1947--1967 A Conversation with Howard Raiffa

Howard Raiffa earned his bachelor's degree in mathematics, his master's degree in statistics and his Ph.D. in mathematics at the University of Michigan. Since 1957, Raiffa has been a member of the faculty at Harvard University, where he is now the Frank P. Ramsey Chair in Managerial Economics (Emeritus) in the Graduate School of Business Administration and the Kennedy School of Government. A pioneer in the creation of the field known as decision analysis, his research interests span statistical decision theory, game theory, behavioral decision theory, risk analysis and negotiation analysis. Raiffa has supervised more than 90 doctoral dissertations and written 11 books. His new book is Negotiation Analysis: The Science and Art of Collaborative Decision Making. Another book, Smart Choices, co-authored with his former doctoral students John Hammond and Ralph Keeney, was the CPR (formerly known as the Center for Public Resources) Institute for Dispute Resolution Book of the Year in 1998. Raiffa helped to create the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis and he later became its first Director, serving in that capacity from 1972 to 1975. His many honors and awards include the Distinguished Contribution Award from the Society of Risk Analysis; the Frank P. Ramsey Medal for outstanding contributions to the field of decision analysis from the Operations Research Society of America; and the Melamed Prize from the University of Chicago Business School for The Art and Science of Negotiation. He earned a Gold Medal from the International Association for Conflict Management and a Lifetime Achievement Award from the CPR Institute for Dispute Resolution. He holds honorary doctor's degrees from Carnegie Mellon University, the University of Michigan, Northwestern University, Ben Gurion University of the Negev and Harvard University. The latter was awarded in 2002.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/088342307000000104 the Statistical Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Homophily and Contagion Are Generically Confounded in Observational Social Network Studies

We consider processes on social networks that can potentially involve three factors: homophily, or the formation of social ties due to matching individual traits; social contagion, also known as social influence; and the causal effect of an individual's covariates on their behavior or other measurable responses. We show that, generically, all of these are confounded with each other. Distinguishing them from one another requires strong assumptions on the parametrization of the social process or on the adequacy of the covariates used (or both). In particular we demonstrate, with simple examples, that asymmetries in regression coefficients cannot identify causal effects, and that very simple models of imitation (a form of social contagion) can produce substantial correlations between an individual's enduring traits and their choices, even when there is no intrinsic affinity between them. We also suggest some possible constructive responses to these results.Comment: 27 pages, 9 figures. V2: Revised in response to referees. V3: Ditt

Faculty Publications 2018-2019

The production of scholarly research continues to be one of the primary missions of the ILR School. During a typical academic year, ILR faculty members published or had accepted for publication over 25 books, edited volumes, and monographs, 170 articles and chapters in edited volumes, numerous book reviews. In addition, a large number of manuscripts were submitted for publication, presented at professional association meetings, or circulated in working paper form. Our faculty\u27s research continues to find its way into the very best industrial relations, social science and statistics journal

Ophelia\u27s Desire

Psychoanalytic criticism renders Ophelia anomalous, no longer Hamlet\u27s erotic object in her own right but a refraction of his cathexis on the Queen. This approach obscures how profoundly Ophelia, the only daughter in William Shakespeare to renounce the lover her father forbids, violates generic norms, and how structurally similar Hamlet\u27s two examples of madness are. Hamlet and Ophelia go mad after sacrificing the independent (and expected) aims of adulthood at the commands of fathers whom the play links to figures of murderous aggression against children: the biblical Jephthah and Seneca\u27s filicidal ghosts. Hamlet is a play haunted by fathers who wish to have no heirs

Final and Cumulative Annual Report for Alfred P. Sloan Foundation Grant G-2015-13903 “The Economics of Socially-Efficient Privacy and Confidentiality Management for Statistical Agencies”

Final and Cumulative Annual Report, finalized May 2019Goal: To study the economics of socially efficient protocols for managing research databases containing private information. Metrics 1. At least four peer-reviewed articles that are published in journals read by economists, statisticians, and other social scientists. 2. A library of socially efficient algorithms that other researchers can readily implement 3. A policy handbook or brief to inform key statistical agencies on managing the tradeoffs between enabling data access and maintaining privacy 4. At least one graduate equipped with unique research and computational skills.Alfred P. Sloan Foundation Grant G-2015-1390

Redefining the Agency of Jewish Communities Through Ghetto Humor

While the Holocaust is remembered by historians and victims as a time of suffering and genocide, Jewish ghetto survivors recall numerous occasions in which humor was used to combat the oppression of Nazi authorities. Although many historians emphasized the physical hardships and tragic conditions faced by Jewish victims of the Holocaust, the existence of jokes throughout Eastern European ghettos articulated the legitimacy of humor within the greater context and discussion of coping, resistance, and unification for the preservation of Jewish life and identity in the post-war period. Rather than depicting Jews as solely victims, humor returns agency to the Jews who lived in ghettos by highlighting the complexity of their reality without overgeneralizing their experiences

Hotel De Vagabundos: reviewing African American theatre journey.

This analysis examines how Hotel de Vagabundos, a play written by a black playwright from Colombia, fits into the core of definitions of Black Theatre in the United States. I will examine six documents I consider relevant to shape the idea of Black Theatre in the US from 1900 through 2005. The author\u27s experience in New York during the 1940s inspires Hotel de Vagabundos. The author navigates the globalized ethos idea unleashing clashes about identity to criticize aspects of American culture about immigrants, poor people, and internalized racism within African American and Black diasporic communities. The play “like a country´s metaphor” shows tensions between cultures in hotel rooms continuously. My objective is to draw connections between Hotel de Vagabundos and notable African American plays to redefine Black Theatre to include playwrights like Manuel Zapata Olivella