Short-Term Precipitation Forecast Based on the PERSIANN System and LSTM Recurrent Neural Networks

Short-term Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting is important for flood forecasting, early flood warning, and natural hazard management. This study proposes a precipitation forecast model by extrapolating Cloud-Top Brightness Temperature (CTBT) using advanced Deep Neural Networks, and applying the forecasted CTBT into an effective rainfall retrieval algorithm to obtain the Short-term Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting (0–6 hr). To achieve such tasks, we propose a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN), respectively. The precipitation forecasts obtained from our proposed framework, (i.e., LSTM combined with PERSIANN) are compared with a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), Persistency method, and Farneback optical flow each combined with PERSIANN algorithm and the numerical model results from the first version of Rapid Refresh (RAPv1.0) over three regions in the United States, including the states of Oregon, Oklahoma, and Florida. Our experiments indicate better statistics, such as correlation coefficient and root-mean-square error, for the CTBT forecasts from the proposed LSTM compared to the RNN, Persistency, and the Farneback method. The precipitation forecasts from the proposed LSTM and PERSIANN framework has demonstrated better statistics compared to the RAPv1.0 numerical forecasts and PERSIANN estimations from RNN, Persistency, and Farneback projections in terms of Probability of Detection, False Alarm Ratio, Critical Success Index, correlation coefficient, and root-mean-square error, especially in predicting the convective rainfalls. The proposed method shows superior capabilities in short-term forecasting over compared methods, and has the potential to be implemented globally as an alternative short-term forecast product

Thirty Years of Machine Learning: The Road to Pareto-Optimal Wireless Networks

Future wireless networks have a substantial potential in terms of supporting a broad range of complex compelling applications both in military and civilian fields, where the users are able to enjoy high-rate, low-latency, low-cost and reliable information services. Achieving this ambitious goal requires new radio techniques for adaptive learning and intelligent decision making because of the complex heterogeneous nature of the network structures and wireless services. Machine learning (ML) algorithms have great success in supporting big data analytics, efficient parameter estimation and interactive decision making. Hence, in this article, we review the thirty-year history of ML by elaborating on supervised learning, unsupervised learning, reinforcement learning and deep learning. Furthermore, we investigate their employment in the compelling applications of wireless networks, including heterogeneous networks (HetNets), cognitive radios (CR), Internet of things (IoT), machine to machine networks (M2M), and so on. This article aims for assisting the readers in clarifying the motivation and methodology of the various ML algorithms, so as to invoke them for hitherto unexplored services as well as scenarios of future wireless networks.Comment: 46 pages, 22 fig

Rhythmic inhibition allows neural networks to search for maximally consistent states

Gamma-band rhythmic inhibition is a ubiquitous phenomenon in neural circuits yet its computational role still remains elusive. We show that a model of Gamma-band rhythmic inhibition allows networks of coupled cortical circuit motifs to search for network configurations that best reconcile external inputs with an internal consistency model encoded in the network connectivity. We show that Hebbian plasticity allows the networks to learn the consistency model by example. The search dynamics driven by rhythmic inhibition enable the described networks to solve difficult constraint satisfaction problems without making assumptions about the form of stochastic fluctuations in the network. We show that the search dynamics are well approximated by a stochastic sampling process. We use the described networks to reproduce perceptual multi-stability phenomena with switching times that are a good match to experimental data and show that they provide a general neural framework which can be used to model other 'perceptual inference' phenomena

Statistical Physics and Representations in Real and Artificial Neural Networks

This document presents the material of two lectures on statistical physics and neural representations, delivered by one of us (R.M.) at the Fundamental Problems in Statistical Physics XIV summer school in July 2017. In a first part, we consider the neural representations of space (maps) in the hippocampus. We introduce an extension of the Hopfield model, able to store multiple spatial maps as continuous, finite-dimensional attractors. The phase diagram and dynamical properties of the model are analyzed. We then show how spatial representations can be dynamically decoded using an effective Ising model capturing the correlation structure in the neural data, and compare applications to data obtained from hippocampal multi-electrode recordings and by (sub)sampling our attractor model. In a second part, we focus on the problem of learning data representations in machine learning, in particular with artificial neural networks. We start by introducing data representations through some illustrations. We then analyze two important algorithms, Principal Component Analysis and Restricted Boltzmann Machines, with tools from statistical physics

The Challenge of Machine Learning in Space Weather Nowcasting and Forecasting

The numerous recent breakthroughs in machine learning (ML) make imperative to carefully ponder how the scientific community can benefit from a technology that, although not necessarily new, is today living its golden age. This Grand Challenge review paper is focused on the present and future role of machine learning in space weather. The purpose is twofold. On one hand, we will discuss previous works that use ML for space weather forecasting, focusing in particular on the few areas that have seen most activity: the forecasting of geomagnetic indices, of relativistic electrons at geosynchronous orbits, of solar flares occurrence, of coronal mass ejection propagation time, and of solar wind speed. On the other hand, this paper serves as a gentle introduction to the field of machine learning tailored to the space weather community and as a pointer to a number of open challenges that we believe the community should undertake in the next decade. The recurring themes throughout the review are the need to shift our forecasting paradigm to a probabilistic approach focused on the reliable assessment of uncertainties, and the combination of physics-based and machine learning approaches, known as gray-box.Comment: under revie