Latin America 2060: consolidation or crisis?

This repository item contains a single issue of the Pardee Center Task Force Reports, a publication series that began publishing in 2009 by the Boston University Frederick S. Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer-Range Future.Latin America has produced vigorous ideas throughout its history, expressed in narratives about its struggles and successes, or its weaknesses and failures. Together, these have shaped a multi-faceted vision of the region and its peoples. Some of its expositors, finding the story to be neither complete nor precise, work toward reformulations, some quite radical. Such generation of knowledge in different fields seems destined to yield a variety of distinct outcomes, at least in part because some of the emerging social and cultural movements are not yet very well structured. This Task Force Report project seeks to harness ideas about the region’s future into a coherent and policy useful discourse. A Workshop and a Task Force meeting was held at Boston University on November 18-19, 2010. A select group of invited experts – a mix of academic scholars and practitioners – were asked to turn their ideas into short ‘Think Pieces’ essays. Each Think Piece focuses on a specific topical issue for the region as a whole, instead of looking only at particular countries. These Think Piece essays are compiled and edited by the Task Force coordinator and published by the Pardee Center as a Task Force Report

From Spaghetti Bowl to Jigsaw Puzzle? Addressing the Disarray in the World Trade System

The rise of mega-regionals such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) suggests that the world trade system is fragmenting to the point it appears more like a jigsaw puzzle than a spaghetti bowl. There are both regional and global jigsaw puzzles to be solved—in that order—to clean up the world trade system. But is this even likely? The difficulties of free trade agreement (FTA) consolidation at the regional level are well known, while piecing together the blocs around the world to form a coherent whole is even more challenging. In this context, a way forward is to return to the most widely used modality of trade liberalization—unilateral actions—but this time involving the multilateralization of preferences rather than unreciprocated reductions in tariff rates. As more and more FTAs are negotiated, preference erosion sets in, reducing the resistance of FTA partners to multilateralization. Multilateralization of preferences may then present a practical way forward in addressing the disarray in the world trade system

Regionalism as an Engine of Multilateralism: A Case for a Single East Asian FTA

As East Asia becomes increasingly integrated through market-driven trade and FDI activities, free trade agreements (FTAs) are proliferating. Consolidation of multiple and overlapping FTAs into a single East Asian FTA can help mitigate the harmful noodle bowl effects of different or competing tariffs, standards, and rules. A region-wide FTA will also encourage participation of low-income countries and reduce trade-related business costs, particularly for small and medium enterprises. A computable general equilibrium (CGE) model examines the economic impact of various types of FTAs in East Asia (among ASEAN+1's, ASEAN+3, and ASEAN+6) finding that consolidation at the ASEAN+6 level would yield the largest gains to East Asia among plausible regional trade arrangements.Free Trade Agreement; ASEAN; multilateralism

Financial Institutions and Structures for Growth in East Asia

Singapore, development, institutions, finance

Managing Capital Flows: Experiences from Central and Eastern Europe. WP234. March 2008

The countries of Central and Eastern Europe went from being largely closed to being largely open to international capital flows. This paper discusses their experience with capital account liberalization and coping with large capital inflows. We start with a discussion of basic economic characteristics and the real convergence achieved so far, and then discuss the pace and sequencing of capital account liberalization and the degree of international financial integration over the past decade. We then analyze trends and patterns of capital inflows in these countries in recent years. These stylized facts are useful for understanding the macroeconomic implications and policy challenges of coping with large capital inflows, which we discuss next. Finally we conclude with policy implications for emerging Asian economies

Global Financial Regulatory Reforms:Implications for Developing Asia

The objective of global regulatory reform is to build a resilient global financial system that can withstand shocks and dampen, rather than amplify, their effects on the real economy. Lessons drawn from the recent crisis have led to specific reform proposals with concrete implementation plans at the international level. Yet, these proposals have raised concerns of relevance to Asia’s developing economies and hence require further attention at the regional level. We argue that global financial reform should allow for the enormous development challenges faced by developing countries—while ensuring that domestic financial regulatory systems keep abreast of global standards. This implies global reforms should be complemented and augmented by national and regional reforms, taking into account the very different characteristics of emerging economies’ financial systems from advanced economies. Key areas of development focus should be (i) balancing regulation and innovation, (ii) establishing national and cross-border crisis management and resolution mechanisms, (iii) preparing a comprehensive framework and contingency plan for financial institution failure, including consumer protection measures such as deposit insurance, (iv) supporting growth and development with particular attention to the region’s financial needs for infrastructure and for SMEs, and (v) reforming the international and regional financial architecture.financial regulatory reform; global financial architecture; G-20; Asia; national and regional reform

FUTURE TRADE RESEARCH AREAS THAT MATTER TO DEVELOPING COUNTRY POLICYMAKERS

This chapter analyzes preferential trade in Asia and the PacificPreferential trade, Asia and the Pacific, noodel bowl, GATT, WTO

Latin America's agricultural exports to China: Recent trends

Latin America is becoming the fastest growing agricultural production region and Brazil has by far the fastest growing agricultural sector. China from being a small agricultural importer (1.4% of world imports in 1990/01), became the fifth largest importer at 5.4% of world imports in 2006/07. China's overall trade with Latin America has expanded substantially during the last two decades -the rate of growth has been greater than any other region in the world since 2005. Most exports from Latin America to China are primary products while Chinese exports to Latin America are mostly industrial products. The Chinese demand for agricultural products is concentrated in food products such as grains and oilseeds. Countries specialised in those commodities -eg. Brazil and Argentina-exhibit a strong orientation on the Chinese market. In turn, growing subsectors in China, like fruits and vegetables, are posing strong competition to some world supplier countries in Latin America such as Chile and Peru. Since China is promoting structural reforms of its agricultural sector, aimed at increasing productivity and improving food security, and is expanding their direct investments overseas to secure provision of raw materials, Latin American governments need to pursue long-run strategic public policies. They need to optimize trade results and promote production efficiency that on one hand contribute to take advantage of the current market situation but at the same time assure the protection of the natural resources and preserve the production capacity and the agricultural diversity. --Latin America,China,trade,agriculture,soybean,agricultural policies

Pharmaceutical M&A Activity: Effects on Prices, Innovation, and Competition

The rise of blockbuster pharmaceutical acquisitions has prompted fears that unprecedented market concentration will weaken competition. Two of the most prominent concerns focus on the upstream and downstream ends of the pharmaceutical industry: (1) the concern that these mergers will concentrate the market for discovery and will therefore lead to fewer discoveries; and (2) the concern that merging large marketing, sales, and distribution forces will strengthen the hands of select pharmaceutical manufacturers and weaken downstream competition. Having considered potential dynamic effects in the industry and conducted a series of preliminary interviews with knowledgeable observers, though, this Article argues that neither of these common fears is systematically warranted. There are, however, potential dangers in market concentration at an intermediate stage during the discovery-to-development path: the stage for regulatory approval. These preliminary findings are a product of dramatic changes that are currently reshaping the structure of the pharmaceutical industry. This Article discusses how these structural changes contribute to the current merger wave, how dynamic responses by industry players in response to the merger wave mitigate the potential harm from competition, and how the political arena might still offer threats to market concentration

Unveiling Protectionism: Regional Responses to Remaining Barriers in the Textiles and Clothing Trade

this chapter explains teh differences between specialization, reorientation of markets adn relocation overseas.textiles and Clothing, quantitative restrictions