Futures of shipbuilding in the 22nd century : Explorative industry foresight research of the long-range futures for commercial ship-building, using elements of OpenAI.

The shipbuilding industry has historically shaped global trade, logistics, research, and cultural globalization. It was instrumental in exploring and colonizing new continents, thereby significantly shaping our society. Today, it's essential to consider the industry's current transformations and speculate on what shipbuilding might look like in the 22nd century. This study is dedicated to exploring the possible futures of shipbuilding over a long-range time horizon of 70 -100 years. This thesis applied futures research methods to data collected using OpenAI tools and explored possible transformative pathways within the industry. The research offers potential future scenarios and delineates change pathways from external pressures and internal shifts within the shipbuilding system. Additionally, the study highlights the possible applications and implications of utilizing OpenAI technology in a research context. The analysis of shipbuilding incorporates the Multi-Level Perspective (MLP) concept, viewing the industry as a system involving ten groups of key actors. This structure guided the data collection process for the input of the research. The primary research process adheres to traditional futures research methods, which include horizon scanning, systems thinking, scenario building, and causal layered analysis (CLA). Furthermore, the methodology was expanded to incorporate AI-assisted techniques. This includes using AI technology for automated data collection and a separate pathway using ChatGPT-4 for computer-generated scenarios and CLA narratives development. The outcomes from both methodologies are compared, and additional literature research about the applicability and implications of using AI in futures studies. The research has identified critical external drivers of change, originating from fields such as technology, energy, and social development, as well as internal drivers, including biotechnology and diversifying floating structures. The external drivers could influence the future direction of shipbuilding, while the internal factors represent potential changes originating from within the industry. The constructed scenarios are designed to stimulate discussion and provide context for future developmental trajectories of shipbuilding

The security and the legal aspects of Turkish straits

Caşın, Mesut Hakkı (Dogus Author) -- Conference full title: Symposium on the Straits Used for International Navigation : 16-17 November 2002, Ataköy Marina, Istanbul, TurkeyDuring the last century, Turkish Straits witnessed two world wars and, following them, the Cold War tension between the NATO and Warsaw Pacts just near the coast of the magnificent blue waters. Also, just a decade ago the terrible Soviet Black Sea Armada was the main threat 1 for NATO Alliance security strategies around these waters. But today, NATO has signed important agreements with Russia, the ex-arch-enemy of the Alliance which formulated (19+1) new security relationship and cooperation, also ongoing friendly common exercises with Black Sea riparian states naval fleets2 and Black Sea rapid deployment forces. Nowadays they are ready for humanitarian missions to protect democratic humanitarian ideas.All these tremendous peaceful steps exchange legal and security aspects of Turkish Straits in an optimistic dimension. However, up to 1,500 ships a day sail through the Bosphorus, Sea of Marmara and the Dardanelles Straits that links the Mediterranean and Black Seas off the coast of habitat of more than ten millions people in Turkey. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, an increasing energy transport has been aimed at taking the pressure off these strategic waterways that link the Caspian Sea oil and gas resources to the world market.3 Indeed, as Dana MUNRO stressed the Russians were the first to import petroleum to Germany in 1883 from rich Russian wells in Baku. According to this, German oil market demand jumped up from 300.000 tons to 755.199 tons in 1911, creating a big competition between Russia, Austria, Romania, and the USA, 4 just before the "Great Game" oil operation in the region. The existing Montreux Convention allows complete freedom of passage both day and night, regardless of the nationality of the vessels or their cargoes

Design Errors in Ship Design

There is a problem in coping with design errors in ship design. Ships are generally very large and often very complex. Yet, we rarely invest in full-scale prototypes so design errors are frequently revealed once ships are at sea and certain errors can be catastrophic, others lead to many ships having shortened useful lives. The paper starts by considering the nature of design errors and failures in large-scale engineering enterprises. This is followed by looking briefly at some lessons from maritime history concerning how design errors arise and can even lead to ships sinking. A specific well-documented case of calculation error in sizing a new ship design is reviewed and lessons drawn. The relevance of general approaches to avoiding engineering errors and ever-greater emphasis on risk mitigation procedures and applying safety regimes alongside ethical guidance is reviewed. The changing nature of ship design practice is discussed, with ship designers between the horns of the dilemma of ever greater ability provided by computer driven precision and the demands for their designs to be seen to perform effectively in an increasingly uncertain and complex world. Final thoughts consider the basis for judging what might be good or bad ship designs, how errors can be addressed, and the ultimate safety role of the naval architect as the overall designer of complex vessels

History and recent advancements of electric propulsion and integrated electrical power systems for commercial & naval vessels

Due to developments in power electronics, electric machines, energy storage and control, electric propulsion and integrated electrical power systems have become major trends for commercial and naval vessels. This is mainly due to the fact that the use of electric propulsion and integrated power systems can improve efficiency and fuel consumption while reducing noise and vibration when compared to conventional systems. Such advantages are extremely attractive to vessel owners due to increasingly stringent emission requirements, especially in environmental control areas, from the international maritime organization. This paper aims to summarize the recent advancement of marine power systems including propulsion systems, electrical distribution systems and novel loads