31,879 research outputs found
Probabilistic Cross-Identification of Cosmic Events
We discuss a novel approach to identifying cosmic events in separate and
independent observations. In our focus are the true events, such as supernova
explosions, that happen once, hence, whose measurements are not repeatable.
Their classification and analysis have to make the best use of all the
available data. Bayesian hypothesis testing is used to associate streams of
events in space and time. Probabilities are assigned to the matches by studying
their rates of occurrence. A case study of Type Ia supernovae illustrates how
to use lightcurves in the cross-identification process. Constraints from
realistic lightcurves happen to be well-approximated by Gaussians in time,
which makes the matching process very efficient. Model-dependent associations
are computationally more demanding but can further boost our confidence.Comment: 5 pages, 2 figures, accepted to Ap
Processing count queries over event streams at multiple time granularities
Management and analysis of streaming data has become crucial with its applications in web, sensor data, network tra c data, and stock market. Data streams consist of mostly numeric data but what is more interesting is the events derived from the numerical data that need to be monitored. The events obtained from streaming data form event streams. Event streams have similar properties to data streams, i.e., they are seen only once in a fixed order as a continuous stream. Events appearing in the event stream have time stamps associated with them in a certain time granularity, such as second, minute, or hour. One type of frequently asked queries over event streams is count queries, i.e., the frequency of an event occurrence over time. Count queries can be answered over event streams easily, however, users may ask queries over di erent time granularities as well. For example, a broker may ask how many times a stock increased in the same time frame, where the time frames specified could be hour, day, or both. This is crucial especially in the case of event streams where only a window of an event stream is available at a certain time instead of the whole stream. In this paper, we propose a technique for predicting the frequencies of event occurrences in event streams at multiple time granularities. The proposed approximation method e ciently estimates the count of events with a high accuracy in an event stream at any time granularity by examining the distance distributions of event occurrences. The proposed method has been implemented and tested on di erent real data sets and the results obtained are presented to show its e ectiveness
Probabilistic Graphical Models on Multi-Core CPUs using Java 8
In this paper, we discuss software design issues related to the development
of parallel computational intelligence algorithms on multi-core CPUs, using the
new Java 8 functional programming features. In particular, we focus on
probabilistic graphical models (PGMs) and present the parallelisation of a
collection of algorithms that deal with inference and learning of PGMs from
data. Namely, maximum likelihood estimation, importance sampling, and greedy
search for solving combinatorial optimisation problems. Through these concrete
examples, we tackle the problem of defining efficient data structures for PGMs
and parallel processing of same-size batches of data sets using Java 8
features. We also provide straightforward techniques to code parallel
algorithms that seamlessly exploit multi-core processors. The experimental
analysis, carried out using our open source AMIDST (Analysis of MassIve Data
STreams) Java toolbox, shows the merits of the proposed solutions.Comment: Pre-print version of the paper presented in the special issue on
Computational Intelligence Software at IEEE Computational Intelligence
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Causal Induction from Continuous Event Streams: Evidence for Delay-Induced Attribution Shifts
Contemporary theories of Human Causal Induction assume that causal knowledge is inferred from observable contingencies. While this assumption is well supported by empirical results, it fails to consider an important problem-solving aspect of causal induction in real time: In the absence of well structured learning trials, it is not clear whether the effect of interest occurred because of the cause under investigation, or on its own accord. Attributing the effect to either the cause of interest or alternative background causes is an important precursor to induction. We present a new paradigm based on the presentation of continuous event streams, and use it to test the Attribution-Shift Hypothesis (Shanks & Dickinson, 1987), according to which temporal delays sever the attributional link between cause and effect. Delays generally impaired attribution to the candidate, and increased attribution to the constant background of alternative causes. In line with earlier research (Buehner & May, 2002, 2003, 2004) prior knowledge and experience mediated this effect. Pre-exposure to a causally ineffective background context was found to facilitate the discovery of delayed causal relationships by reducing the tendency for attributional shifts to occur. However, longer exposure to a delayed causal relationship did not improve discovery. This complex pattern of results is problematic for associative learning theories, but supports the Attribution-Shift Hypothesi
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