Fire behavior modeling for operational decision-making

Simulation frameworks are necessary to facilitate decision-making to many fire agencies. An accurate estimation of fire behavior is required to analyze potential impact and risk. Applied research and technology together have improved the implementation of fire modeling, and decision-making in operational environments.Dr Cardil acknowledges the support of Technosylva USA and Wageningen University in his research stays in the USA and the Netherlands to develop this work. The authors of this paper acknowledges the support of the EUfunded PYROLIFE project (Reference: 860787; https://pyrolife.lessonsonfire.eu/), a project in which a new generation of experts will be trained in integrated wildfire management

A review of machine learning applications in wildfire science and management

Artificial intelligence has been applied in wildfire science and management since the 1990s, with early applications including neural networks and expert systems. Since then the field has rapidly progressed congruently with the wide adoption of machine learning (ML) in the environmental sciences. Here, we present a scoping review of ML in wildfire science and management. Our objective is to improve awareness of ML among wildfire scientists and managers, as well as illustrate the challenging range of problems in wildfire science available to data scientists. We first present an overview of popular ML approaches used in wildfire science to date, and then review their use in wildfire science within six problem domains: 1) fuels characterization, fire detection, and mapping; 2) fire weather and climate change; 3) fire occurrence, susceptibility, and risk; 4) fire behavior prediction; 5) fire effects; and 6) fire management. We also discuss the advantages and limitations of various ML approaches and identify opportunities for future advances in wildfire science and management within a data science context. We identified 298 relevant publications, where the most frequently used ML methods included random forests, MaxEnt, artificial neural networks, decision trees, support vector machines, and genetic algorithms. There exists opportunities to apply more current ML methods (e.g., deep learning and agent based learning) in wildfire science. However, despite the ability of ML models to learn on their own, expertise in wildfire science is necessary to ensure realistic modelling of fire processes across multiple scales, while the complexity of some ML methods requires sophisticated knowledge for their application. Finally, we stress that the wildfire research and management community plays an active role in providing relevant, high quality data for use by practitioners of ML methods.Comment: 83 pages, 4 figures, 3 table

Forest fire simulator system for emergency resources management support

Europe suffers approximately 65,000 fires every year, which burn, on average, half a million hectares of forest areas [1]. The main direct effect of forest fires is the destruction of the natural landscape and the consequent loss of ecosystem service that have drastic economic impact, but mainly and much more important, fires also result in the loss of human lives every year. Although being forest fires a problem present in all EU members, the most affected areas to this hazards are the southern countries due to their climatological conditions. All affected countries invest lots of resources to minimize fire damages, but many times when dealing with large fires, regional and national disaster management units are lack of efficient and reliable tools to help wildfire analysts. In this work, we describe a process to generate on-line wildfire simulations coupled with the regional weather forecast service (Servei Meteorològic de Catalunya, SMC) and the helicopter company (Helipistas S.L) who provides isochronous perimeters of the fire behaviour in a certain moment of the emergency and how both of this data sources feed the inputs for the simulation process.Europa sufre aproximadamente 65,000 incendios cada año, de media, medio millón de hectáreas forestales[1]. El principal efecto de los fuegos forestales es la destrucción de la superfície natural y como consecuencia la pérdida del ecosistema y el gran impacto económico, pero principamente y de manera mucho más importante el fuego tambien repercute en la pérdida de vidas humanas año tras año. Los fuegos forestales además de ser un problema para los miembros de la UE, se ven repercutidos, especialmente los paises del sur debido a sus condiciones climatológicas. Todos estos paises afectados invierten gran cantidad de recursos para minimizar estos efectos. Generalmente cuando se trata de grandes incendios forestales, las unidades de mando de estos medios de exinción a nivel regional y nacional se ven necesitados de herramientas eficientes y útiles para el análisis de la predicción del comportamiento de estos grandes incendios forestales. En este trabajo, describimos un sistema de predicción de incendios forestales acoplado con el servicio meteorológicos de catalunya (SMC) y la empresa de helicópteros (Helipistas S.L) los cuales proveen de los perímetros del incendio en un instante de tiempo de la emergencia y cómo estas dos fuentes de datos se anexan al proceso de simulación.Europa pateix aproximadament 65,000 incendis cada any, de mitja, cada mig-milió d'hectàrees forestals[1]. El principal efecte dels focs forestals es la destrucció de la superfície natural i com a conseqüència la pèrdua de l'ecosistema i el gran impacte econòmic, però principalment i de manera molt més important el foc, també, repercuteix en la pèrdua de vides humanes any rere any. Els focs forestals a més a més de representar un problema pels països membres de la UE, es veuen afectats els països del Sud degut a les seves condicions climatològiques. Tots aquests països afectats inverteixen grans quantitat de recursos per a minimitzar aquests efectes. Generalment quan es tracta de grans incendis forestals, les unitats de comandament d'aquests medis d'extinció a nivell regional i nacional es veuen necessitats d'eines útils i eficients per a l'anàlisis de la predicció en el comportament dels grans incendis forestals. En aquest treball, descrivim un sistema de predicció d'incendis forestals acoblat amb el servei meteorològic de Catalunya (SMC) i l'empresa d'helicòpters (Helipistas S.L) els quals proveïxen dels perímetres de l'incendi en un instant de temps de l'emergència i com aquestes dos fonts de dades annexen al procés de simulació

Distributed Particle Filters for Data Assimilation in Simulation of Large Scale Spatial Temporal Systems

Assimilating real time sensor into a running simulation model can improve simulation results for simulating large-scale spatial temporal systems such as wildfire, road traffic and flood. Particle filters are important methods to support data assimilation. While particle filters can work effectively with sophisticated simulation models, they have high computation cost due to the large number of particles needed in order to converge to the true system state. This is especially true for large-scale spatial temporal simulation systems that have high dimensional state space and high computation cost by themselves. To address the performance issue of particle filter-based data assimilation, this dissertation developed distributed particle filters and applied them to large-scale spatial temporal systems. We first implemented a particle filter-based data assimilation framework and carried out data assimilation to estimate system state and model parameters based on an application of wildfire spread simulation. We then developed advanced particle routing methods in distributed particle filters to route particles among the Processing Units (PUs) after resampling in effective and efficient manners. In particular, for distributed particle filters with centralized resampling, we developed two routing policies named minimal transfer particle routing policy and maximal balance particle routing policy. For distributed PF with decentralized resampling, we developed a hybrid particle routing approach that combines the global routing with the local routing to take advantage of both. The developed routing policies are evaluated from the aspects of communication cost and data assimilation accuracy based on the application of data assimilation for large-scale wildfire spread simulations. Moreover, as cloud computing is gaining more and more popularity; we developed a parallel and distributed particle filter based on Hadoop & MapReduce to support large-scale data assimilation

Sensor-Driven, Spatially Explicit Agent-Based Models

Conventionally, agent-based models (ABMs) are specified from well-established theory about the systems under investigation. For such models, data is only introduced to ensure the validity of the specified models. In cases where the underlying mechanisms of the system of interest are unknown, rich datasets about the system can reveal patterns and processes of the systems. Sensors have become ubiquitous allowing researchers to capture precise characteristics of entities in both time and space. The combination of data from in situ sensors to geospatial outputs provides a rich resource for characterising geospatial environments and entities on earth. More importantly, the sensor data can capture behaviours and interactions of entities allowing us to visualise emerging patterns from the interactions. However, there is a paucity of standardised methods for the integration of dynamic sensor data streams into ABMs. Further, only few models have attempted to incorporate spatial and temporal data dynamically from sensors for model specification, calibration and validation. This chapter documents the state of the art of methods for bridging the gap between sensor data observations and specification of accurate spatially explicit agent-based models. In addition, this work proposes a conceptual framework for dynamic validation of sensor-driven spatial ABMs to address the risk of model overfitting

IoT and Sensor Networks in Industry and Society

The exponential progress of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) is one of the main elements that fueled the acceleration of the globalization pace. Internet of Things (IoT), Artificial Intelligence (AI) and big data analytics are some of the key players of the digital transformation that is affecting every aspect of human's daily life, from environmental monitoring to healthcare systems, from production processes to social interactions. In less than 20 years, people's everyday life has been revolutionized, and concepts such as Smart Home, Smart Grid and Smart City have become familiar also to non-technical users. The integration of embedded systems, ubiquitous Internet access, and Machine-to-Machine (M2M) communications have paved the way for paradigms such as IoT and Cyber Physical Systems (CPS) to be also introduced in high-requirement environments such as those related to industrial processes, under the forms of Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT or I2oT) and Cyber-Physical Production Systems (CPPS). As a consequence, in 2011 the German High-Tech Strategy 2020 Action Plan for Germany first envisioned the concept of Industry 4.0, which is rapidly reshaping traditional industrial processes. The term refers to the promise to be the fourth industrial revolution. Indeed, the first industrial revolution was triggered by water and steam power. Electricity and assembly lines enabled mass production in the second industrial revolution. In the third industrial revolution, the introduction of control automation and Programmable Logic Controllers (PLCs) gave a boost to factory production. As opposed to the previous revolutions, Industry 4.0 takes advantage of Internet access, M2M communications, and deep learning not only to improve production efficiency but also to enable the so-called mass customization, i.e. the mass production of personalized products by means of modularized product design and flexible processes. Less than five years later, in January 2016, the Japanese 5th Science and Technology Basic Plan took a further step by introducing the concept of Super Smart Society or Society 5.0. According to this vision, in the upcoming future, scientific and technological innovation will guide our society into the next social revolution after the hunter-gatherer, agrarian, industrial, and information eras, which respectively represented the previous social revolutions. Society 5.0 is a human-centered society that fosters the simultaneous achievement of economic, environmental and social objectives, to ensure a high quality of life to all citizens. This information-enabled revolution aims to tackle today’s major challenges such as an ageing population, social inequalities, depopulation and constraints related to energy and the environment. Accordingly, the citizens will be experiencing impressive transformations into every aspect of their daily lives. This book offers an insight into the key technologies that are going to shape the future of industry and society. It is subdivided into five parts: the I Part presents a horizontal view of the main enabling technologies, whereas the II-V Parts offer a vertical perspective on four different environments. The I Part, dedicated to IoT and Sensor Network architectures, encompasses three Chapters. In Chapter 1, Peruzzi and Pozzebon analyse the literature on the subject of energy harvesting solutions for IoT monitoring systems and architectures based on Low-Power Wireless Area Networks (LPWAN). The Chapter does not limit the discussion to Long Range Wise Area Network (LoRaWAN), SigFox and Narrowband-IoT (NB-IoT) communication protocols, but it also includes other relevant solutions such as DASH7 and Long Term Evolution MAchine Type Communication (LTE-M). In Chapter 2, Hussein et al. discuss the development of an Internet of Things message protocol that supports multi-topic messaging. The Chapter further presents the implementation of a platform, which integrates the proposed communication protocol, based on Real Time Operating System. In Chapter 3, Li et al. investigate the heterogeneous task scheduling problem for data-intensive scenarios, to reduce the global task execution time, and consequently reducing data centers' energy consumption. The proposed approach aims to maximize the efficiency by comparing the cost between remote task execution and data migration. The II Part is dedicated to Industry 4.0, and includes two Chapters. In Chapter 4, Grecuccio et al. propose a solution to integrate IoT devices by leveraging a blockchain-enabled gateway based on Ethereum, so that they do not need to rely on centralized intermediaries and third-party services. As it is better explained in the paper, where the performance is evaluated in a food-chain traceability application, this solution is particularly beneficial in Industry 4.0 domains. Chapter 5, by De Fazio et al., addresses the issue of safety in workplaces by presenting a smart garment that integrates several low-power sensors to monitor environmental and biophysical parameters. This enables the detection of dangerous situations, so as to prevent or at least reduce the consequences of workers accidents. The III Part is made of two Chapters based on the topic of Smart Buildings. In Chapter 6, Petroșanu et al. review the literature about recent developments in the smart building sector, related to the use of supervised and unsupervised machine learning models of sensory data. The Chapter poses particular attention on enhanced sensing, energy efficiency, and optimal building management. In Chapter 7, Oh examines how much the education of prosumers about their energy consumption habits affects power consumption reduction and encourages energy conservation, sustainable living, and behavioral change, in residential environments. In this Chapter, energy consumption monitoring is made possible thanks to the use of smart plugs. Smart Transport is the subject of the IV Part, including three Chapters. In Chapter 8, Roveri et al. propose an approach that leverages the small world theory to control swarms of vehicles connected through Vehicle-to-Vehicle (V2V) communication protocols. Indeed, considering a queue dominated by short-range car-following dynamics, the Chapter demonstrates that safety and security are increased by the introduction of a few selected random long-range communications. In Chapter 9, Nitti et al. present a real time system to observe and analyze public transport passengers' mobility by tracking them throughout their journey on public transport vehicles. The system is based on the detection of the active Wi-Fi interfaces, through the analysis of Wi-Fi probe requests. In Chapter 10, Miler et al. discuss the development of a tool for the analysis and comparison of efficiency indicated by the integrated IT systems in the operational activities undertaken by Road Transport Enterprises (RTEs). The authors of this Chapter further provide a holistic evaluation of efficiency of telematics systems in RTE operational management. The book ends with the two Chapters of the V Part on Smart Environmental Monitoring. In Chapter 11, He et al. propose a Sea Surface Temperature Prediction (SSTP) model based on time-series similarity measure, multiple pattern learning and parameter optimization. In this strategy, the optimal parameters are determined by means of an improved Particle Swarm Optimization method. In Chapter 12, Tsipis et al. present a low-cost, WSN-based IoT system that seamlessly embeds a three-layered cloud/fog computing architecture, suitable for facilitating smart agricultural applications, especially those related to wildfire monitoring. We wish to thank all the authors that contributed to this book for their efforts. We express our gratitude to all reviewers for the volunteering support and precious feedback during the review process. We hope that this book provides valuable information and spurs meaningful discussion among researchers, engineers, businesspeople, and other experts about the role of new technologies into industry and society

Part 3: Systemic risk in ecology and engineering

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York released a report -- New Directions for Understanding Systemic Risk -- that presents key findings from a cross-disciplinary conference that it cosponsored in May 2006 with the National Academy of Sciences' Board on Mathematical Sciences and Their Applications. ; The pace of financial innovation over the past decade has increased the complexity and interconnectedness of the financial system. This development is important to central banks, such as the Federal Reserve, because of their traditional role in addressing systemic risks to the financial system. ; To encourage innovative thinking about systemic issues, the New York Fed partnered with the National Academy of Sciences to bring together more than 100 experts on systemic risk from 22 countries to compare cross-disciplinary perspectives on monitoring, addressing and preventing this type of risk. ; This report, released as part of the Bank's Economic Policy Review series, outlines some of the key points concerning systemic risk made by the various disciplines represented - including economic research, ecology, physics and engineering - as well as presentations on market-oriented models of financial crises, and systemic risk in the payments system and the interbank funds market. The report concludes with observations gathered from the sessions and a discussion of potential applications to policy. ; The three papers presented in this conference session highlighted the positive feedback effects that produce herdlike behavior in markets, and the subsequent discussion focused in part on means of encouraging heterogeneous investment strategies to counter such behavior. Participants in the session also discussed the types of models used to study systemic risk and commented on the challenges and trade-offs researchers face in developing their models.Financial risk management ; Financial markets ; Financial stability ; Financial crises

Libro de Actas JCC&BD 2018 : VI Jornadas de Cloud Computing & Big Data

Se recopilan las ponencias presentadas en las VI Jornadas de Cloud Computing & Big Data (JCC&BD), realizadas entre el 25 al 29 de junio de 2018 en la Facultad de Informática de la Universidad Nacional de La Plata.Universidad Nacional de La Plata (UNLP) - Facultad de Informátic