Real-Time Dynamic Pricing with Minimal and Flexible Price Adjustment

We study a standard dynamic pricing problem where the seller (a monopolist) possesses a finite amount of inventories and attempts to sell the products during a finite selling season. Despite the potential benefits of dynamic pricing, many sellers still adopt a static pricing policy because of (1) the complexity of frequent reoptimizations, (2) the negative perception of excessive price adjustments, and (3) the lack of flexibility caused by existing business constraints. In this paper, we develop a family of pricing heuristics that can be used to address all these challenges. Our heuristic is computationally easy to implement; it requires only a single optimization at the beginning of the selling season and automatically adjusts the prices over time. Moreover, to guarantee a strong revenue performance, the heuristic only needs to adjust the prices of a small number of products and do so infrequently. This property helps the seller focus his effort on the prices of the most important products instead of all products. In addition, in the case where not all products are equally admissible to price adjustment (due to existing business constraints such as contractual agreement, strategic product positioning, etc.), our heuristic can immediately substitute the price adjustment of the original products with the price adjustment of similar products and maintain an equivalent revenue performance. This property provides the seller with extra flexibility in managing his prices

House price momentum and strategic complementarity

House prices exhibit substantially more momentum, positive autocorrelation in price changes, than existing theories can explain. I introduce an amplification mechanism to reconcile this discrepancy. Sellers do not set a unilaterally high or low list price because they face a concave demand curve: increasing the price of an above-average-priced house rapidly reduces its sale probability, but cutting the price of a below-average-priced house only slightly improves its sale probability. The resulting strategic complementarity amplifies frictions because sellers gradually adjust their price to stay near average. I provide empirical evidence for concave demand using a quantitative search model that amplifies momentum two- to threefold

A Minimal Incentive-based Demand Response Program With Self Reported Baseline Mechanism

In this paper, we propose a novel incentive based Demand Response (DR) program with a self reported baseline mechanism. The System Operator (SO) managing the DR program recruits consumers or aggregators of DR resources. The recruited consumers are required to only report their baseline, which is the minimal information necessary for any DR program. During a DR event, a set of consumers, from this pool of recruited consumers, are randomly selected. The consumers are selected such that the required load reduction is delivered. The selected consumers, who reduce their load, are rewarded for their services and other recruited consumers, who deviate from their reported baseline, are penalized. The randomization in selection and penalty ensure that the baseline inflation is controlled. We also justify that the selection probability can be simultaneously used to control SO's cost. This allows the SO to design the mechanism such that its cost is almost optimal when there are no recruitment costs or at least significantly reduced otherwise. Finally, we also show that the proposed method of self-reported baseline outperforms other baseline estimation methods commonly used in practice

Price Flexibility in Channels of Distribution: Evidence from Scanner Data

In this study, we empirically examine the extent of price rigidity using a unique store-level time series data set - consisting of (i) actual retail transaction prices, (ii) actual wholesale transaction prices which represent both the retailers' costs and the prices received by manufacturers, and (iii) a measure of manufacturers' costs - for twelve goods in two widely used consumer product categories. We simultaneously examine the extent of price rigidity for each of the twelve products at both, final goods and intermediate goods levels. We study two notions of price rigidity employed in the existing literature: (i) the frequency of price changes, and (ii) the response of prices to exogenous cost changes. We find that retail prices exhibit remarkable flexibility in terms of both notions of price rigidity. i.e., they change frequently and they seem to respond quickly and fully to cost changes. Furthermore, we find that retail prices respond not just to their direct costs, but also to the upstream manufacturers' costs, which further reinforces the extent of the retail price flexibility. At the intermediate goods level of the market, in contrast, we find relatively more evidence of rigidity in the response of manufacturers prices to cost changes. This despite the fact that wholesale prices change frequently and therefore exhibit flexibility according to the first notion of price rigidity.Price Flexibility, Price Rigidity, Final Goods Market, Intermediate Goods Market, Stages of Processing, Structural VAR, Scanner Data, Transaction Price Data, Frequency of Price Changes, Price Response to Exogeneous Cost Changes, Retail Price, Wholesale Price, New Keynesian Macroeconomics, How Markets Clear, Time Series Analysis, Orange Juice, Orange Juice Frozen Concentrate, Futures Market

State-Dependent or Time-Dependent Pricing: Does it Matter for Recent U.S. Inflation?

Inflation equals the product of two terms: an extensive margin (the fraction of items with price changes) and an intensive margin (the average size of those price changes). The variance of inflation over time can be decomposed into contributions from each margin. The extensive margin figures importantly in many state-dependent pricing models, whereas the intensive margin is the sole source of inflation changes in staggered time-dependent pricing models. We use micro data collected by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics to decompose the variance of consumer price inflation from 1988 through 2003. We find that around 95% of the variance of monthly inflation stems from fluctuations in the average size of price changes, i.e., the intensive margin. When we calibrate a prominent state-dependent pricing model to match this empirical variance decomposition, the model's shock responses are very close to those in time-dependent pricing models.

Does Exchange Rate Variability Matter for Welfare? A Quantitative Investigation of Stabilization Policies

This paper evaluates quantitatively the potential welfare gains from monetary policy and fixed exchange rate rules in a two-country sticky-price model. The first finding is that the gains from stabilization tend to be small in the types of economic environments emphasized in recent theoretical literature. The analysis goes on to identify two types of economies in which the welfare implications of risk are larger: where agents exhibit habits, and where international asset markets exhibit asymmetry in the form of “original sin.” In the habits case, monetary policy aimed solely at inflation stabilization is optimal. But in the original sin case there are potentially large welfare gains from also eliminating exchange rate volatility.exchange rate risk, second order approximation

The History of the Quantitative Methods in Finance Conference Series. 1992-2007

This report charts the history of the Quantitative Methods in Finance (QMF) conference from its beginning in 1993 to the 15th conference in 2007. It lists alphabetically the 1037 speakers who presented at all 15 conferences and the titles of their papers.