Rao-Blackwellized Out-of-Sequence Processing for Mixed Linear/Nonlinear State-Space Models

We investigate the out-of-sequence measurements particle filtering problem for a set of conditionally linear Gaussian state-space models, known as mixed linear/nonlinear state-space models. Two different algorithms are proposed, which both exploit the conditionally linear substructure. The first approach is based on storing only a subset of the particles and their weights, which implies low memory and computation requirements. The second approach is based on a recently reported Rao-Blackwellized forward filter/backward simulator, adapted to the out-of-sequence filtering task with computational considerations for enabling online implementations. Simulation studies on two examples show that both approaches outperform recently reported particle filters, with the second approach being superior in terms of tracking performance

Rao-Blackwellized Particle Filters with Out-of-Sequence Measurement Processing

This paper addresses the out-of-sequence measurement (OOSM) problem for mixed linear/nonlinear state-space models, which is a class of nonlinear models with a tractable, conditionally linear substructure. We develop two novel algorithms that utilize the linear substructure. The first algorithm effectively employs the Rao-Blackwellized particle filtering framework for updating with the OOSMs, and is based on storing only a subset of the particles and their weights over an arbitrary, predefined interval. The second algorithm adapts a backward simulation approach to update with the delayed (out-of-sequence) measurements, resulting in superior tracking performance. Extensive simulation studies show the efficacy of our approaches in terms of computation time and tracking performance. Both algorithms yield estimation improvements when compared with recent particle filter algorithms for OOSM processing; in the considered examples they achieve up to 10% enhancements in estimation accuracy. In some cases the proposed algorithms even deliver accuracy that is similar to the lower performance bounds. Because the considered setup is common in various estimation scenarios, the developed algorithms enable improvements in different types of filtering applications

Recursive Bayesian inference on stochastic differential equations

This thesis is concerned with recursive Bayesian estimation of non-linear dynamical systems, which can be modeled as discretely observed stochastic differential equations. The recursive real-time estimation algorithms for these continuous-discrete filtering problems are traditionally called optimal filters and the algorithms for recursively computing the estimates based on batches of observations are called optimal smoothers. In this thesis, new practical algorithms for approximate and asymptotically optimal continuous-discrete filtering and smoothing are presented. The mathematical approach of this thesis is probabilistic and the estimation algorithms are formulated in terms of Bayesian inference. This means that the unknown parameters, the unknown functions and the physical noise processes are treated as random processes in the same joint probability space. The Bayesian approach provides a consistent way of computing the optimal filtering and smoothing estimates, which are optimal given the model assumptions and a consistent way of analyzing their uncertainties. The formal equations of the optimal Bayesian continuous-discrete filtering and smoothing solutions are well known, but the exact analytical solutions are available only for linear Gaussian models and for a few other restricted special cases. The main contributions of this thesis are to show how the recently developed discrete-time unscented Kalman filter, particle filter, and the corresponding smoothers can be applied in the continuous-discrete setting. The equations for the continuous-time unscented Kalman-Bucy filter are also derived. The estimation performance of the new filters and smoothers is tested using simulated data. Continuous-discrete filtering based solutions are also presented to the problems of tracking an unknown number of targets, estimating the spread of an infectious disease and to prediction of an unknown time series.reviewe

Variational Latent Discrete Representation for Time Series Modelling

Discrete latent space models have recently achieved performance on par with their continuous counterparts in deep variational inference. While they still face various implementation challenges, these models offer the opportunity for a better interpretation of latent spaces, as well as a more direct representation of naturally discrete phenomena. Most recent approaches propose to train separately very high-dimensional prior models on the discrete latent data which is a challenging task on its own. In this paper, we introduce a latent data model where the discrete state is a Markov chain, which allows fast end-to-end training. The performance of our generative model is assessed on a building management dataset and on the publicly available Electricity Transformer Dataset