Emergence and Causality in Complex Systems: A Survey on Causal Emergence and Related Quantitative Studies

Emergence and causality are two fundamental concepts for understanding complex systems. They are interconnected. On one hand, emergence refers to the phenomenon where macroscopic properties cannot be solely attributed to the cause of individual properties. On the other hand, causality can exhibit emergence, meaning that new causal laws may arise as we increase the level of abstraction. Causal emergence theory aims to bridge these two concepts and even employs measures of causality to quantify emergence. This paper provides a comprehensive review of recent advancements in quantitative theories and applications of causal emergence. Two key problems are addressed: quantifying causal emergence and identifying it in data. Addressing the latter requires the use of machine learning techniques, thus establishing a connection between causal emergence and artificial intelligence. We highlighted that the architectures used for identifying causal emergence are shared by causal representation learning, causal model abstraction, and world model-based reinforcement learning. Consequently, progress in any of these areas can benefit the others. Potential applications and future perspectives are also discussed in the final section of the review.Comment: 57 pages, 17 figures, 1 tabl

Emergent Behavior Development and Control in Multi-Agent Systems

Emergence in natural systems is the development of complex behaviors that result from the aggregation of simple agent-to-agent and agent-to-environment interactions. Emergence research intersects with many disciplines such as physics, biology, and ecology and provides a theoretical framework for investigating how order appears to spontaneously arise in complex adaptive systems. In biological systems, emergent behaviors allow simple agents to collectively accomplish multiple tasks in highly dynamic environments; ensuring system survival. These systems all display similar properties: self-organized hierarchies, robustness, adaptability, and decentralized task execution. However, current algorithmic approaches merely present theoretical models without showing how these models actually create hierarchical, emergent systems. To fill this research gap, this dissertation presents an algorithm based on entropy and speciation - defined as morphological or physiological differences in a population - that results in hierarchical emergent phenomena in multi-agent systems. Results show that speciation creates system hierarchies composed of goal-aligned entities, i.e. niches. As niche actions aggregate into more complex behaviors, more levels emerge within the system hierarchy, eventually resulting in a system that can meet multiple tasks and is robust to environmental changes. Speciation provides a powerful tool for creating goal-aligned, decentralized systems that are inherently robust and adaptable, meeting the scalability demands of current, multi-agent system design. Results in base defense, k-n assignment, division of labor and resource competition experiments, show that speciated populations create hierarchical self-organized systems, meet multiple tasks and are more robust to environmental change than non-speciated populations

A method for system of systems definition and modeling using patterns of collective behavior

The Department of Defense ship and aircraft acquisition process, with its capability-based assessments and fleet synthesis studies, relies heavily on the assumption that a functional decomposition of higher-level system of systems (SoS) capabilities into lower-level system and subsystem behaviors is both possible and practical. However, SoS typically exhibit “non-decomposable” behaviors (also known as emergent behaviors) for which no widely-accepted representation exists. The presence of unforeseen emergent behaviors, particularly undesirable ones, can make systems vulnerable to attacks, hacks, or other exploitation, or can cause delays in acquisition program schedules and cost overruns in order to mitigate them. The International Council on Systems Engineering has identified the development of methods for predicting and managing emergent behaviors as one of the top research priorities for the Systems Engineering profession. Therefore, this thesis develops a method for rendering quantifiable SoS emergent properties and behaviors traceable to patterns of interaction of their constitutive systems, so that exploitable patterns identified during the early stages of design can be accounted for. This method is designed to fill two gaps in the literature. First, the lack of an approach for mining data to derive a model (i.e. an equation) of the non-decomposable behavior. Second, the lack of an approach for qualitatively and quantitatively associating emergent behaviors with the components that cause the behavior. A definition for emergent behavior is synthesized from the literature, as well as necessary conditions for its identification. An ontology of emergence that enables studying the emergent behaviors exhibited by self-organized systems via numerical simulations is adapted for this thesis in order to develop the mathematical approach needed to satisfy the research objective. Within the confines of two carefully qualified assumptions (that the model is valid, and that the model is efficient), it is argued that simulated emergence is bona-fide emergence, and that simulations can be used for experimentation without sacrificing rigor. This thesis then puts forward three hypotheses: The first hypothesis is that self-organized structures imply the presence of a form of data compression, and this compression can be used to explicitly calculate an upper bound on the number of emergent behaviors that a system can possess. The second hypothesis is that the set of numerical criteria for detecting emergent behavior derived in this research constitutes sufficient conditions for identifying weak and functional emergent behaviors. The third hypothesis states that affecting the emergent properties of these systems will have a bigger impact on the system’s performance than affecting any single component of that system. Using the method developed in this thesis, exploitable properties are identified and component behaviors are modified to attempt the exploit. Changes in performance are evaluated using problem-specific measures of merit. The experiments find that Hypothesis 2 is false (the numerical criteria are not sufficient conditions) by identifying instances where the numerical criteria produce a false-positive. As a result, a set of sufficient conditions for emergent behavior identification remains to be found. Hypothesis 1 was also falsified based on a worst-case scenario where the largest possible number of obtainable emergent behaviors was compared against the upper bound computed from the smallest possible data compression of a self-organized system. Hypothesis 3, on the other hand, was supported, as it was found that new behavior rules based on component-level properties provided less improvement to performance against an adversary than rules based on system-level properties. Overall, the method is shown to be an effective, systematic approach to non-decomposable behavior exploitation, and an improvement over the modern, largely ad hoc approach.Ph.D