PARTICIPATORY MODELLING TO SUPPORT DECISION MAKING IN WATER MANAGEMENT. A CASE STUDY IN THE MIDDLE GUADIANA BASIN, SPAIN.

Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Integration of biological, economic and sociological knowledge by Bayesian belief networks: the interdisciplinary evaluation of potential Baltic salmon management plan

There is a growing need to evaluate fisheries management plans in a comprehensive interdisciplinary context involving stakeholders. In this paper we demonstrate a probabilistic management model to evaluate potential management plans for Baltic salmon fisheries. The analysis is based on several studies carried out by scientists from respective disciplines. The main part consisted of biological and ecological stock assessment with integrated economic analysis of the commercial fisheries. Recreational fisheries were evaluated separately. Finally, a sociological study was conducted aimed at understanding stakeholder perspectives and potential commitment to alternative management plans. In order to synthesize the findings from these disparate studies a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) methodology is used. The ranking of management options can depend on the stakeholder perspective. The trade-offs can be analysed quantitatively with the BBN model by combining, according to the decision maker’s set of priorities, utility functions that represent stakeholders’ views. We show how BBN can be used to evaluate robustness of management decisions to different priorities and various sources of uncertainty. In particular, the importance of sociological studies in quantifying uncertainty about the commitment of fishermen to management plans is highlighted by modelling the link between commitment and implementation success.Baltic salmon, bio-economic modelling, Bayesian Belief Network, expert knowledge, fisheries management, commitment and implementation uncertainty, management plan, recreational fisheries, stakeholders., Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Participatory modelling to support decision making in water management. A case study in the middle Guadiana basin, Spain.

The objective of this research was the implementation of a participatory process for the development of a tool to support decision making in water management. The process carried out aims at attaining an improved understanding of the water system and an encouragement of the exchange of knowledge and views between stakeholders to build a shared vision of the system. In addition, the process intends to identify impacts of possible solutions to given problems, which will help to take decisions

Potentials and Limits of Bayesian Networks to Deal with Uncertainty in the Assessment of Climate Change Adaptation Policies

Bayesian networks (BNs) have been increasingly applied to support management and decision-making processes under conditions of environmental variability and uncertainty, providing logical and holistic reasoning in complex systems since they succinctly and effectively translate causal assertions between variables into patterns of probabilistic dependence. Through a theoretical assessment of the features and the statistical rationale of BNs, and a review of specific applications to ecological modelling, natural resource management, and climate change policy issues, the present paper analyses the effectiveness of the BN model as a synthesis framework, which would allow the user to manage the uncertainty characterising the definition and implementation of climate change adaptation policies. The review will let emerge the potentials of the model to characterise, incorporate and communicate the uncertainty, with the aim to provide an efficient support to an informed and transparent decision making process. The possible drawbacks arising from the implementation of BNs are also analysed, providing potential solutions to overcome them.Adaptation to Climate Change, Bayesian Network, Uncertainty

Investigation of Water Supply and Cropping Pattern on Water Level Rising in Abbas Plain of Ilam Province using System Dynamics Approach

In irrigation management, the amount and quality of irrigation water is very important. Inappropriate water and soil quality will cause the plant to grow, destroy the soil structure and eventually reduce crop yield. In this study, according to the field measurement, the boundaries of the system were investigated, a conceptual model was developed to determine causal relationships, structural test, and the extent test used for the system dynamics method. Scenarios including water supply from Karkheh Dam and wells of the region as well as crop pattern were evaluated and selected. The conceptual model was based on five sub-models: water demand, water supply, environmental stresses, water economy and environment. The results showed that the use of Karkheh Dam water of 160 million cubic meters and the extraction of 90 million cubic meters of the plain aquifer will keep the groundwater level at a distance of 10 meters from the soil surface and will supress the problem of rising groundwater level. In crop pattern scenarios, the model results were the use of crop pattern with emphasis on increasing forage and beet levels to prevent drainage

Evaluation of Bayesian Networks in Participatory Water Resources Management, Upper Guadiana Basin, Spain

Stakeholder participation is becoming increasingly important in water resources management. In participatory processes, stakeholders contribute by putting forward their own perspective, and they benefit by enhancing their understanding of the factors involved in decision making. A diversity of modeling tools can be used to facilitate participatory processes. Bayesian networks are well suited to this task for a variety of reasons, including their ability to structure discussions and visual appeal. This research focuses on developing and testing a set of evaluation criteria for public participation. The advantages and limitations of these criteria are discussed in the light of a specific participatory modeling initiative. Modeling work was conducted in the Upper Guadiana Basin in central Spain, where uncontrolled groundwater extraction is responsible for wetland degradation and conflicts between farmers, water authorities, and environmentalists. Finding adequate solutions to the problem is urgent because the implementation of the EU Water Framework Directive requires all aquatic ecosystems to be in a “good ecological state” within a relatively short time frame. Stakeholder evaluation highlights the potential of Bayesian networks to support public participation processes

Participatory Modeling for Sustainable Development in Water and Agrarian Systems: Potential and Limits of Stakeholder Involvement

Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Integrating economic values and catchment modelling

Integrated catchment policies are widely used to manage natural resources in Australian catchments. Decision support tools available to aid integrated catchment management are often limited in their integration of environmental processes with socio-economic systems. Fully integrated models are required to support assessments of the environmental and economic trade-offs of catchment management changes. A Bayesian Network (BN) model is demonstrated to provide a suitable approach to integrate environmental modelling with economic valuation. The model incorporates hydrological, ecological and economic models for the George catchment in Tasmania. Information about the non-market costs and benefits of environmental changes is elicited using Choice Experiments, allowing an assessment of the efficiency of alternative management scenarios.Integrated catchment modelling, Bayesian networks, Uncertainty, Environmental values, Non-market valuation, Choice Modelling.,

Integrated Hydro-Economic Modelling: Challenges and Experiences in an Australian Catchment

Integrated catchment policies are widely used to manage natural resources in Australian catchments. Integration of environmental processes with socio-economic systems is often difficult due to the limitations of decision support tools. To support assessments of the environmental and economic trade-offs of changes in catchment management, fully integrated models are needed. This research demonstrates a Bayesian Network (BN) approach to integrating environmental modelling with economic valuation. The model incorporates hydrological, ecological and economic models for the George catchment in Tasmania. Choice experiments were used to elicit information about the non-market costs and benefits of environmental changes. This allows the efficiency of alternative management scenarios to be assessed.Hydro-economic modelling, Integrated catchment modelling, Ecological modelling, Valuation, Bayesian networks, Water quality, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Environmental Economics and Policy, Land Economics/Use,

A novel planning approach for the water, sanitation and hygiene (WaSH) sector: the use of object-oriented bayesian networks

Conventional approaches to design and plan water, sanitation, and hygiene (WaSH) interventions are not suitable for capturing the increasing complexity of the context in which these services are delivered. Multidimensional tools are needed to unravel the links between access to basic services and the socio-economic drivers of poverty. This paper applies an object-oriented Bayesian network to reflect the main issues that determine access to WaSH services. A national Program in Kenya has been analyzed as initial case study. The main findings suggest that the proposed approach is able to accommodate local conditions and to represent an accurate reflection of the complexities of WaSH issues, incorporating the uncertainty intrinsic to service delivery processes. Results indicate those areas in which policy makers should prioritize efforts and resources. Similarly, the study shows the effects of sector interventions, as well as the foreseen impact of various scenarios related to the national Program.Preprin