Extremes of maximum temperatures over Iberia from EMSEMBLES regional projections [Póster]

Póster presentado en: VIII Congreso de la Asociación Española de Climatología celebrado en Salamanca entre el 25 y el 28 de septiembre de 2012.This work was partly funded by projects “GRACCIE” (CSD2007-00067, 290 CONSOLIDER-INGENIO 2010), AMVAR (CTM2010-15009), MARUCA (E17/08), EXTREMBLES (CGL2010- 21869) and ESCENA (200800050084265) from the Spanish R&D programme and by the project CLIM-RUN from the 7th European Framework Programme (FP7)

PMP and Climate Variability and Change: A Review

[EN] A state-of-the-art review on the probable maximum precipitation (PMP) as it relates to climate variability and change is presented. The review consists of an examination of the current practice and the various developments published in the literature. The focus is on relevant research where the effect of climate dynamics on the PMP are discussed, as well as statistical methods developed for estimating very large extreme precipitation including the PMP. The review includes interpretation of extreme events arising from the climate system, their physical mechanisms, and statistical properties, together with the effect of the uncertainty of several factors determining them, such as atmospheric moisture, its transport into storms and wind, and their future changes. These issues are examined as well as the underlying historical and proxy data. In addition, the procedures and guidelines established by some countries, states, and organizations for estimating the PMP are summarized. In doing so, attention was paid to whether the current guidelines and research published literature take into consideration the effects of the variability and change of climatic processes and the underlying uncertainties.The authors would like to acknowledge the support of the Global Water Futures Program and the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC Discovery Grant RGPIN-2019-06894). The fourth author acknowledges the support of the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation, Project TETISCHANGE (RTI2018-093717-B-100). The first author appreciates the continuous support from the Scott College of Engineering of Colorado State University.Salas, JD.; Anderson, ML.; Papalexiou, SM.; Francés, F. (2020). PMP and Climate Variability and Change: A Review. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering. 25(12):1-16. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0002003S1162512Abbs, D. J. (1999). 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Risposta morfologica della spiaggia compresa tra Lido di Dante e Lido di Classe ad eventi di mareggiata

The impact of sea storms on low-lying sandy coasts may induce hazardous erosive beach and dune processes and, in the most severe situations, flooding of coastal areas which can cause, on a very limited time scale, significant changes in the littoral. The risk level increases for highly developed areas, where the negative effects on the local economy of the territory are added to the direct consequences of the physical impact of storms. In front of the rapid and continuous population growth in coastal areas, the increased human activities and the threat posed by rising sea level, understanding and forecasting the possible storm induced damage to the coastal environment may represent a useful tool in support decisions in coastal management. In this context dunes play a role of fundamental importance in granting natural protection to the backbeach during storm events. For the areas behind the shore placed below the mean sea level (which is the case of quite all Emilia-Romagna coastal environment), dunes are at the same time the first line of defense as well as the last barrier against phenomena of marine ingression. In the present study the response to the storm events befallen in the period between September 2008 and March 2010 is discussed in detail for one of the few remaining dune cordons along the coast of the Emilia-Romagna Region, located between Lido di Dante and Lido di Classe and characterized by an extension of about 6 km. Storm surge phenomena and wave conditions were analyzed to identify marine storms that may induce significant morphological changes in the beach-dune system. The characteristics of extreme sea levels that occur along the northwestern Adriatic coast were identified through the examination of the longest mareographic series available, highlighting their highly seasonal pattern. The quantification of the impact of storm surges was carried out comparing the pre and post-storm profiles, spaced a hundred meters apart, and simulating the morphological evolution of beach profiles through SBEACH numerical model. The results show that the combination of storm surge and wave conditions induces the most serious consequences for the considered physical system. The analysis clearly shows that the combination of high sea levels and average wave intensity has a decisive role in erosion and inundation processes that affect the regional coast. The study results indicate that the magnitude of the impacts caused by storm surges is generally controlled by the topographical and morphological beach features (such as slope and amplitude) as well as by dune state (ridge elevation, amount of frontal dune reservoir, distance to sea): these features may prevent extensive erosion in some areas and promote duneface retreat or washover in others. In spite of the smaller wave heights associated to Scirocco winds, storm surges, which generally are higher during these conditions, may result in particularly dangerous effects for the resilience of the dune system due to the longer wave period depending on the morphology of the Adriatic basin. An evaluation of the volume lost from the impact of sea storms further indicates that a system like the one located in the northern part of the coastal stretch under consideration, already severely degraded by high human impact and effects of headlong land subsidence, which in this area reaches the highest value of the entire regional coast, becomes increasingly susceptible to storm events and easier involved during less intense storm conditions