Recruitment Market Trend Analysis with Sequential Latent Variable Models

Recruitment market analysis provides valuable understanding of industry-specific economic growth and plays an important role for both employers and job seekers. With the rapid development of online recruitment services, massive recruitment data have been accumulated and enable a new paradigm for recruitment market analysis. However, traditional methods for recruitment market analysis largely rely on the knowledge of domain experts and classic statistical models, which are usually too general to model large-scale dynamic recruitment data, and have difficulties to capture the fine-grained market trends. To this end, in this paper, we propose a new research paradigm for recruitment market analysis by leveraging unsupervised learning techniques for automatically discovering recruitment market trends based on large-scale recruitment data. Specifically, we develop a novel sequential latent variable model, named MTLVM, which is designed for capturing the sequential dependencies of corporate recruitment states and is able to automatically learn the latent recruitment topics within a Bayesian generative framework. In particular, to capture the variability of recruitment topics over time, we design hierarchical dirichlet processes for MTLVM. These processes allow to dynamically generate the evolving recruitment topics. Finally, we implement a prototype system to empirically evaluate our approach based on real-world recruitment data in China. Indeed, by visualizing the results from MTLVM, we can successfully reveal many interesting findings, such as the popularity of LBS related jobs reached the peak in the 2nd half of 2014, and decreased in 2015.Comment: 11 pages, 30 figure, SIGKDD 201

Deconstructing China’s and India’s Growth - The Role of Financial Policies

This paper uses the standard one-sector neoclassical growth model to investigate why Chinas consumption has been low and investment high. It finds that the low cost of capital has been quantitatively an important factor. Theory predicts that the price of capital may have been significantly distorted in the 1990s and 2000s. The distortion could have been caused by nonperforming loans, borrowing constraints, and uncertainty over changes in government guidance in bank lending. In one form or the other, these distortions have implied significant transfers from households to firms. If China is to rebalance growth towards relying more on consumption and less on exports and investment, banking sector reforms and financial market development could, therefore, turn out to be key.Business cycle accounting, rebalancing growth, financial distortions

China's Role in the Revived Bretton Woods System: A Case of Mistaken Identity

This paper argues that the way in which China is portrayed in the revived Bretton Woods thesis (BW2) is not consistent with several important trends in, and features of, the Chinese economy; nor does the strategy in the BW2 seem sensible for China's long-term economic development. Whether it is the behavior of China's real exchange rate, the costs of sterilizing large reserve inflows, the role that FDI plays in financing China's fixed asset investment, the participation of foreign firms in China's exports and in the ownership of export industries, or the political economy of trade protectionism in the United States, the BW2 does not provide a good explanation either for how China has behaved in the past or how it should behave in the future. We conclude that the BW2 does not provide a persuasive story for why large US current account deficits and undervalued Asian exchange rates can or should continue for the next decade or longer.China's exchange rate policies, revived Bretton Woods system, Chinese economy

RMB Exchange Rate and Local Currency Price Stability : The Case of China and ASEAN+3

This paper uses Chinese and ASEAN+3 industry panel data to measure variations in mark-up adjustment behaviour that is associated with the exchange rate changes across export destination markets. Exports that are substitutes for local products exhibit a high degree of mark-up adjustment, which has the effect of stabilising prices in export destination countries. There is evidence of this behaviour in certain export products to China where the Chinese Government provides subsidies. When markup adjustment behaviour exists, the short-term dynamic mark-up adjustments are consistent with the long-term pricing behaviour in source countries.RMB Exchange Rate, Local Currency Price Stability, China, ASEAN, ASEAN+3

Prioritization of Policies: A Prototype Model of a Flowchart Method

This paper builds a prototype model of how to prioritize policies by using a flowchart. We presented the following six steps to decide priorities of policies: Step 1 is to attain the social subsistence level (primary education, health care, and food sufficiency); Step 2 is to attain macroeconomic stability; Step 3 is to liberalize the economy by structural adjustment programs; Step 4 is capacity building specific to a growth strategy by facilitating sufficient infrastructure (physical infrastructure and institutions); Step 5 is to initiate a growth strategy; and Step 6 is to narrow income inequalities. We illustrated the effectiveness of our "flowchart method" in case studies of Morocco, Laos, Vietnam, and China. The first priority of reforms in Morocco was given to social sectors of primary education and health care, particularly in the rural areas at Step 1. Laos should not put much emphasis on growth strategy before educational reform, attainment of macroeconomic stability, and institutional capacity building at Steps 1, 2, and 3. Vietnam can focus on reforming the state-run enterprises and developing the stock markets at Step 5 of growth strategies. We found that we should apply our flowchart method to China not nation-wide but province-wide

The World Bank’s Prototype Carbon Fund and China

As the first global carbon fund, the World Bank’s Prototype Carbon Fund (PCF) aims to catalyze the market for project-based greenhouse gas emission reductions while promoting sustainable development and offering a learning-by-doing opportunity to its stakeholders. Since the inception in 2000, the PCF has engaged in a dialogue with China to get it to sign up as a host country, because the World Bank and other international and bilateral donors expect great potential of the clean development mechanism (CDM) in China and feel the significant need for building CDM capacity in China to enable it to gain more insight into the CDM and increase its capacity to initiate and undertake CDM projects. This paper first discusses why China had hesitated to sign up as a host country of PCF projects until September 2003. Then the paper explains what has led China to endorse the PCF projects. The paper ends with discussions on the implications of the PCF’s offering prices for the emerging global carbon market.Carbon prices, Carbon market, China, Prototype Carbon Fund, The World Bank

Industrial Policy in Asia

This paper examines three types of industrialization that have occurred in East Asia: the Japanese, Chinese and generic Asian models. Industrial policies in Japan and the Republic of Korea (ROK) initially protected local companies from foreign investors by imposing high tariffs on foreign investors. But Japan began introducing liberalization policies to attract foreign direct investment (FDI) in the 1960s, and the ROK began to welcome foreign technology in the 1970s. Meanwhile, the governments of the ASEAN countries and Taiwan established export-processing zones (EPZ) to invite FDI by offering preferential treatment, such as tax deductions and exemptions. China adopted similar industrial policies and also established EPZs, attracting the capital and know-how of multinationals and thereby strengthening the international competitiveness of local enterprises. This paper reaches the following three conclusions. First, it would have been difficult for East Asian countries to grow without FDI. Second, central governments were a crucial factor in these countries\u27 growth strategies. Third, EPZs offering preferential treatment can effectively enhance aggregate growth in developing countries, and the Asian experience shows that this strategy can be applied to other countries that satisfy certain preconditions

Central banks and the stability of the international monetary regime

No abstract available

Modelling and macroeconomic analysis of a Solar PV/diesel hybrid power plant

This research thesis covers the latest research on renewable energy globally and focuses on the solar panel and biofuels market. A full macroeconomic analysis is done on the Chinese Taipei, and this results in some parameters which then become the basis of this research. The macroeconomic parameters are then put into a tabular form and applied to India, Turkey and Australia to see how much weight the analysis can hold and if there is enough data per country on the macroeconomic parameters chosen. This research thesis conducts a shorter, custom version of a macroeconomic analysis on a South African area, and considers the national Gross Domestic Product, pollution, length of transmission lines, weather factors such as sunlight and temperature and more. Following from this, a hybrid power system is developed under these circumstances and the information is compared with past research. A very informative discussion is then had as to what the model means on a macroeconomic scale and how it performs technically. The technical solution at this point has no economic barriers. Economics can be a tool and not a financial hurdle in the face of technological advancement