Towards a pragmatic approach for dealing with uncertainties in water management practice

Management of water resources is afflicted with uncertainties. Nowadays it is facing more and new uncertainties since pace and dimension of changes (e.g. climatic, demographic) are accelerating and are likely to increase even more in the future. Hence it is crucial to find pragmatic ways to deal with these uncertainties in water management. So far, decision-making under uncertainty in water management is based on either intuition, heuristics and experience of water managers or on expert assessments all of which are only of limited use for water managers in practice. We argue for an analytical yet pragmatic approach to enable practitioners to deal with uncertainties in a more explicit and systematic way and allow for better informed decisions. Our approach is based on the concept of framing, referring to the different ways in which people make sense of the world and of the uncertainties. We applied and tested recently developed parameters that aim to shed light on the framing of uncertainty in two sub-basins of the Rhine. We present and discuss the results of a series of stakeholder interactions in the two basins aimed at developing strategies for improving dealing with uncertainties. The strategies are synthesized in a cross-checking list based on the uncertainty framing parameters as a hands-on tool for systematically identifying improvement options when dealing with uncertainty in water management practice. We conclude with suggestions for testing the developed check-list as a tool for decision aid in water management practice. Key words: water management, future uncertainties, framing of uncertainties, hands-on decision aid, tools for practice, robust strategies, social learnin

Dependability of IT Systems in Emergency Situations – Theory and Practice

As our dependence on IT systems increases, evaluating the dependability of critical IT systems becomes more important. One of the main challenges in software reliability engineering is the sensitivity of software systems to a changing usage. This is especially important for systems that are critical in the aftermath of a crisis and for which reliability is the most important aspect of dependability. The crisis might change the usage of the system, and this could have a negative effect on the reliability. Because crisis situations are typically rare events, both the reliability and the criticality of IT systems after a crisis situation are hard to predict. The first part of this thesis focuses on the analysis of the sensitivity of the reliability of IT systems to changes in their usage. With the help of statistical methods the effects of changing usage profiles, modelled through the use of Markov models, can be examined. After a theoretical derivation of the properties of different models for the usage of software systems, the results were validated by applying the models to the data collected from the logfiles of a webserver. Swedish municipalities also depend more and more on IT systems for their daily work. Because of their important role in the relief coordination after a crisis, the dependability of their IT systems during these emergency situations is especially critical. The evaluation of this dependability requires the combination of two kinds of information: how critically needed the IT systems are in the aftermath of a crisis and how trustworthy the critical systems are. To avoid that a failing IT system disturbs the relief work, risk and vulnerability analyses need to take into account the dependability of critical IT systems. This way, municipalities can make sure that the relief work is not critically dependent on systems that are not sufficiently reliable. The second part of this thesis describes a case study on how two Swedish municipalities deal with these issues. The study focuses especially on the division of responsibilities in the municipalities and on their current methods. The study shows that today there is much room for improvement, especially in the communication between IT personnel and emergency managers. The main goal of these case studies is to form a basis for the development of practical methods that can assist Swedish municipalities in evaluating the dependability of their IT systems and integration of this information in their emergency planning in the near future

Mitigating the social impact of privatization and enterprise restructuring

This paper focuses on the role the of social programs in economic restructuring. Restructuring often results in significant downsizing of labor. When this occurs a negative social reaction can slow and/or stall restructuring. This is increasingly recognized by development agencies, governments, and enterprise managers and as a result social programs are increasingly becoming part of the design of enterprise restructuring programs. There are economic, social and political objectives for providing social support packages (SSPs) to workers displaced by restructuring and privatization of State Owned Enterprises (SOEs). Social support programs should include elements that combine to"pull"and entice excess labor to leave overstaffed enterprises, while at the same time helping"push"and assist displaced workers to quickly rejoin the labor market. These measures usually include both temporary income support and active labor programs. To be effective the measures must be carefully designed and targeted, and social monitoring of displaced workers should be an integral part of the design to ensure the services are reaching the most needy workers.Municipal Financial Management,Banks&Banking Reform,Environmental Economics&Policies,Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Public Sector Economics