Probabilistic boundary element method

The purpose of the Probabilistic Structural Analysis Method (PSAM) project is to develop structural analysis capabilities for the design analysis of advanced space propulsion system hardware. The boundary element method (BEM) is used as the basis of the Probabilistic Advanced Analysis Methods (PADAM) which is discussed. The probabilistic BEM code (PBEM) is used to obtain the structural response and sensitivity results to a set of random variables. As such, PBEM performs analogous to other structural analysis codes such as finite elements in the PSAM system. For linear problems, unlike the finite element method (FEM), the BEM governing equations are written at the boundary of the body only, thus, the method eliminates the need to model the volume of the body. However, for general body force problems, a direct condensation of the governing equations to the boundary of the body is not possible and therefore volume modeling is generally required

Probabilistic Linear Solvers: A Unifying View

Several recent works have developed a new, probabilistic interpretation for numerical algorithms solving linear systems in which the solution is inferred in a Bayesian framework, either directly or by inferring the unknown action of the matrix inverse. These approaches have typically focused on replicating the behavior of the conjugate gradient method as a prototypical iterative method. In this work surprisingly general conditions for equivalence of these disparate methods are presented. We also describe connections between probabilistic linear solvers and projection methods for linear systems, providing a probabilistic interpretation of a far more general class of iterative methods. In particular, this provides such an interpretation of the generalised minimum residual method. A probabilistic view of preconditioning is also introduced. These developments unify the literature on probabilistic linear solvers, and provide foundational connections to the literature on iterative solvers for linear systems

Confluence Reduction for Probabilistic Systems (extended version)

This paper presents a novel technique for state space reduction of probabilistic specifications, based on a newly developed notion of confluence for probabilistic automata. We prove that this reduction preserves branching probabilistic bisimulation and can be applied on-the-fly. To support the technique, we introduce a method for detecting confluent transitions in the context of a probabilistic process algebra with data, facilitated by an earlier defined linear format. A case study demonstrates that significant reductions can be obtained

Combining Probabilistic Load Forecasts

Probabilistic load forecasts provide comprehensive information about future load uncertainties. In recent years, many methodologies and techniques have been proposed for probabilistic load forecasting. Forecast combination, a widely recognized best practice in point forecasting literature, has never been formally adopted to combine probabilistic load forecasts. This paper proposes a constrained quantile regression averaging (CQRA) method to create an improved ensemble from several individual probabilistic forecasts. We formulate the CQRA parameter estimation problem as a linear program with the objective of minimizing the pinball loss, with the constraints that the parameters are nonnegative and summing up to one. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method using two publicly available datasets, the ISO New England data and Irish smart meter data. Comparing with the best individual probabilistic forecast, the ensemble can reduce the pinball score by 4.39% on average. The proposed ensemble also demonstrates superior performance over nine other benchmark ensembles.Comment: Submitted to IEEE Transactions on Smart Gri

Efficient method for probabilistic fire safety engineering

A growing interest exists within the fire safety community for the topics of risk and reliability. However, due to the high computational requirements of most calculation models, traditional Monte Carlo methods are in general too time consuming for practical applications. In this paper a computationally very efficient methodology is for the first time applied to structural fire safety. The methodology allows estimating the probability density function which describes the uncertain response of the fire exposed structure or structural member, while requiring only a very limited number of model evaluations. The application of the method to structural fire safety is illustrated by two examples in the area of concrete elements exposed to fire

A probabilistic interpretation of the parametrix method

In this article, we introduce the parametrix technique in order to construct fundamental solutions as a general method based on semigroups and their generators. This leads to a probabilistic interpretation of the parametrix method that is amenable to Monte Carlo simulation. We consider the explicit examples of continuous diffusions and jump driven stochastic differential equations with H\"{o}lder continuous coefficients.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/14-AAP1068 in the Annals of Applied Probability (http://www.imstat.org/aap/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Rigid abelian groups and the probabilistic method

The construction of torsion-free abelian groups with prescribed endomorphism rings starting with Corner's seminal work is a well-studied subject in the theory of abelian groups. Usually these construction work by adding elements from a (topological) completion in order to get rid of (kill) unwanted homomorphisms. The critical part is to actually prove that every unwanted homomorphism can be killed by adding a suitable element. We will demonstrate that some of those constructions can be significantly simplified by choosing the elements at random. As a result, the endomorphism ring will be almost surely prescribed, i.e., with probability one.Comment: 12 pages, submitted to the special volume of Contemporary Mathematics for the proceedings of the conference Group and Model Theory, 201