16,337 research outputs found
Probabilistic Line Searches for Stochastic Optimization
In deterministic optimization, line searches are a standard tool ensuring
stability and efficiency. Where only stochastic gradients are available, no
direct equivalent has so far been formulated, because uncertain gradients do
not allow for a strict sequence of decisions collapsing the search space. We
construct a probabilistic line search by combining the structure of existing
deterministic methods with notions from Bayesian optimization. Our method
retains a Gaussian process surrogate of the univariate optimization objective,
and uses a probabilistic belief over the Wolfe conditions to monitor the
descent. The algorithm has very low computational cost, and no user-controlled
parameters. Experiments show that it effectively removes the need to define a
learning rate for stochastic gradient descent.Comment: Extended version of the NIPS '15 conference paper, includes detailed
pseudo-code, 59 pages, 35 figure
Large-scale Heteroscedastic Regression via Gaussian Process
Heteroscedastic regression considering the varying noises among observations
has many applications in the fields like machine learning and statistics. Here
we focus on the heteroscedastic Gaussian process (HGP) regression which
integrates the latent function and the noise function together in a unified
non-parametric Bayesian framework. Though showing remarkable performance, HGP
suffers from the cubic time complexity, which strictly limits its application
to big data. To improve the scalability, we first develop a variational sparse
inference algorithm, named VSHGP, to handle large-scale datasets. Furthermore,
two variants are developed to improve the scalability and capability of VSHGP.
The first is stochastic VSHGP (SVSHGP) which derives a factorized evidence
lower bound, thus enhancing efficient stochastic variational inference. The
second is distributed VSHGP (DVSHGP) which (i) follows the Bayesian committee
machine formalism to distribute computations over multiple local VSHGP experts
with many inducing points; and (ii) adopts hybrid parameters for experts to
guard against over-fitting and capture local variety. The superiority of DVSHGP
and SVSHGP as compared to existing scalable heteroscedastic/homoscedastic GPs
is then extensively verified on various datasets.Comment: 14 pages, 15 figure
Maximum a Posteriori Estimation by Search in Probabilistic Programs
We introduce an approximate search algorithm for fast maximum a posteriori
probability estimation in probabilistic programs, which we call Bayesian ascent
Monte Carlo (BaMC). Probabilistic programs represent probabilistic models with
varying number of mutually dependent finite, countable, and continuous random
variables. BaMC is an anytime MAP search algorithm applicable to any
combination of random variables and dependencies. We compare BaMC to other MAP
estimation algorithms and show that BaMC is faster and more robust on a range
of probabilistic models.Comment: To appear in proceedings of SOCS1
On the construction of probabilistic Newton-type algorithms
It has recently been shown that many of the existing quasi-Newton algorithms
can be formulated as learning algorithms, capable of learning local models of
the cost functions. Importantly, this understanding allows us to safely start
assembling probabilistic Newton-type algorithms, applicable in situations where
we only have access to noisy observations of the cost function and its
derivatives. This is where our interest lies.
We make contributions to the use of the non-parametric and probabilistic
Gaussian process models in solving these stochastic optimisation problems.
Specifically, we present a new algorithm that unites these approximations
together with recent probabilistic line search routines to deliver a
probabilistic quasi-Newton approach.
We also show that the probabilistic optimisation algorithms deliver promising
results on challenging nonlinear system identification problems where the very
nature of the problem is such that we can only access the cost function and its
derivative via noisy observations, since there are no closed-form expressions
available
Expectation Optimization with Probabilistic Guarantees in POMDPs with Discounted-sum Objectives
Partially-observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) with discounted-sum
payoff are a standard framework to model a wide range of problems related to
decision making under uncertainty. Traditionally, the goal has been to obtain
policies that optimize the expectation of the discounted-sum payoff. A key
drawback of the expectation measure is that even low probability events with
extreme payoff can significantly affect the expectation, and thus the obtained
policies are not necessarily risk-averse. An alternate approach is to optimize
the probability that the payoff is above a certain threshold, which allows
obtaining risk-averse policies, but ignores optimization of the expectation. We
consider the expectation optimization with probabilistic guarantee (EOPG)
problem, where the goal is to optimize the expectation ensuring that the payoff
is above a given threshold with at least a specified probability. We present
several results on the EOPG problem, including the first algorithm to solve it.Comment: Full version of a paper published at IJCAI/ECAI 201
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