Modeling competition between two pharmaceutical drugs using innovation diffusion models

The study of competition among brands in a common category is an interesting strategic issue for involved firms. Sales monitoring and prediction of competitors' performance represent relevant tools for management. In the pharmaceutical market, the diffusion of product knowledge plays a special role, different from the role it plays in other competing fields. This latent feature naturally affects the evolution of drugs' performances in terms of the number of packages sold. In this paper, we propose an innovation diffusion model that takes the spread of knowledge into account. We are motivated by the need of modeling competition of two antidiabetic drugs in the Italian market.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/15-AOAS868 in the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Modeling two-language competition dynamics

During the last decade, much attention has been paid to language competition in the complex systems community, that is, how the fractions of speakers of several competing languages evolve in time. In this paper we review recent advances in this direction and focus on three aspects. First we consider the shift from two-state models to three state models that include the possibility of bilingual individuals. The understanding of the role played by bilingualism is essential in sociolinguistics. In particular, the question addressed is whether bilingualism facilitates the coexistence of languages. Second, we will analyze the effect of social interaction networks and physical barriers. Finally, we will show how to analyze the issue of bilingualism from a game theoretical perspective.Comment: 15 pages, 5 figures; published in the Special Issue of Advances in Complex Systems "Language Dynamics

Creating the Capacity to Benefit from Technological Change in Developing Countries

What really makes an economy competitive? This paper reviews and discusses how the capacity to generate, exploit and diffuse new knowledge is key in enabling countries to capitalise on challenges brought about by rapid technology-driven transformations rather than succumb to their adverse effects. In particular, we look at the importance of new knowledge emanating from both domestic and foreign sources in the innovation process in view of the contention that "international technology transfer" is critical for growth in developing countries. We find that there is a tight link between high rates of technology acquisition and high investment ratios, and that the absorptive capacity is a sine qua non of foreign technology benefits.absorptive capacity, knowledge, developing countries, systems of innovation

Agent-Based Modeling of Human-Induced Spread of Invasive Species in Agricultural Landscapes: Insights from the Potato Moth in Ecuador

Agent-based models (ABM) are ideal tools to deal with the complexity of pest invasion throughout agricultural socio-ecological systems, yet very few studies have applied them in such context. In this work we developed an ABM that simulates interactions between farmers and an invasive insect pest in an agricultural landscape of the tropical Andes. Our specific aims were to use the model 1) to assess the importance of farmers\' mobility and pest control knowledge on pest expansion and 2) to use it as an educational tool to train farmer communities facing pest risks. Our model combined an ecological sub-model, simulating pest population dynamics driven by a cellular automaton including environmental factors of the landscape, with a social model in which we incorporated agents (farmers) potentially transporting and spreading the pest through displacements among villages. Results of model simulation revealed that both agents\' movements and knowledge had a significant, non-linear, impact on invasion spread, confirming previous works on disease expansion by epidemiologists. However, heterogeneity in knowledge among agents had a low effect on invasion dynamics except at high levels of knowledge. Evaluations of the training sessions using ABM suggest that farmers would be able to better manage their crop after our implementation. Moreover, by providing farmers with evidence that pests propagated through their community not as the result of isolated decisions but rather as the result of repeated interactions between multiple individuals over time, our ABM allowed introducing them with social and psychological issues which are usually neglected in integrated pest management programs.Socio-Ecological Systems, Farmers, Invasive Pest, Long Distance Dispersion, Teaching

Measuring cortical connectivity in Alzheimer's disease as a brain neural network pathology: Toward clinical applications

Objectives: The objective was to review the literature on diffusion tensor imaging as well as resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging and electroencephalography (EEG) to unveil neuroanatomical and neurophysiological substrates of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) as a brain neural network pathology affecting structural and functional cortical connectivity underlying human cognition. Methods: We reviewed papers registered in PubMed and other scientific repositories on the use of these techniques in amnesic mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and clinically mild AD dementia patients compared to cognitively intact elderly individuals (Controls). Results: Hundreds of peer-reviewed (cross-sectional and longitudinal) papers have shown in patients with MCI and mild AD compared to Controls (1) impairment of callosal (splenium), thalamic, and anterior–posterior white matter bundles; (2) reduced correlation of resting state blood oxygen level-dependent activity across several intrinsic brain circuits including default mode and attention-related networks; and (3) abnormal power and functional coupling of resting state cortical EEG rhythms. Clinical applications of these measures are still limited. Conclusions: Structural and functional (in vivo) cortical connectivity measures represent a reliable marker of cerebral reserve capacity and should be used to predict and monitor the evolution of AD and its relative impact on cognitive domains in pre-clinical, prodromal, and dementia stages of AD. (JINS, 2016, 22, 138–163

A Class of Automata Networks for Diffusion of Innovations Driven by Riccati Equations : Automata Networks for Diffusion of Innovations.

Innovation diffusion processes are generally described at aggregate level with models like the Bass model (1969) and the Generalized Bass Model (1994). However, the recognized importance of communication channels between agents has recently suggested the use of agent-based models, like Cellular Automata. We argue that an adoption process is nested in a communication network that evolves dynamically and implicitly generates a non-constant potential market. Using Cellular Automata we propose a two- phase model of an innovation diffusion process. First we describe the Communication Network necessary for the awareness of an innovation. Then, we model a nested process representing the proper adoption dynamics. Through a "Mean Field Approximation" we propose a continuous representation of the discrete time equations derived by our Automata Network. This constitutes a special non autonomous Riccati equation, not yet described in well-known international catalogues. The main results refer to the closed form solution of this equation and to the corresponding statistical analysis for identification and inference. We discuss an application in the field of bank services