MOOC next week dropout prediction: weekly assessing time and learning patterns

Although Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) systems have become more prevalent in recent years, associated student attrition rates are still a major drawback. In the past decade, many researchers have sought to explore the reasons behind learner attrition or lack of interest. A growing body of literature recognises the importance of the early prediction of student attrition from MOOCs, since it can lead to timely interventions. Among them, most are concerned with identifying the best features for the entire course dropout prediction. This study focuses on innovations in predicting student dropout rates by examining their next-week-based learning activities and behaviours. The study is based on multiple MOOC platforms including 251,662 students from 7 courses with 29 runs spanning in 2013 to 2018. This study aims to build a generalised early predictive model for the weekly prediction of student completion using machine learning algorithms. In addition, this study is the first to use a ‘learner’s jumping behaviour’ as a feature, to obtain a high dropout prediction accuracy

Student Attrition Prediction Using Machine Learning Techniques

In educational systems, students’ course enrollment is fundamental performance metrics to academic and financial sustainability. In many higher institutions today, students’ attrition rates are caused by a variety of circumstances, including demographic and personal factors such as age, gender, academic background, financial abilities, and academic degree of choice. In this study, machine learning approaches was used to develop prediction models that predicted students’ attrition rate in pursuing computer science degree, as well as students who have a high risk of dropping out before graduation. This can help higher education institutes to develop proper intervention plans to reduce attrition rates and increase the probability of student academic success. Student’s data were collected from the Federal University Lokoja (FUL), Nigeria. The data were preprocessed using existing weka machine learning libraries where the data was converted into attribute related file form (arff) and resampling techniques was used to partition the data into training set and testing set. The correlation-based feature selection was extracted and used to develop the students’ attrition model and to identify the students’ risk of dropping out. Random forest and random tree machine learning algorithms were used to predict students' attrition. The results showed that the random forest had an accuracy of 79.45%, while the random tree's accuracy was 78.09%. This is an improvement over previous results where 66.14% and 57.48% accuracy was recorded for random forest and random tree respectively. This improvement was as a result of the techniques used. It is therefore recommended that applying techniques to the classification model can improve the performance of the model

A critical assessment of imbalanced class distribution problem: the case of predicting freshmen student attrition

Predicting student attrition is an intriguing yet challenging problem for any academic institution. Class-imbalanced data is a common in the field of student retention, mainly because a lot of students register but fewer students drop out. Classification techniques for imbalanced dataset can yield deceivingly high prediction accuracy where the overall predictive accuracy is usually driven by the majority class at the expense of having very poor performance on the crucial minority class. In this study, we compared different data balancing techniques to improve the predictive accuracy in minority class while maintaining satisfactory overall classification performance. Specifically, we tested three balancing techniques—oversampling, under-sampling and synthetic minority over-sampling (SMOTE)—along with four popular classification methods—logistic regression, decision trees, neuron networks and support vector machines. We used a large and feature rich institutional student data (between the years 2005 and 2011) to assess the efficacy of both balancing techniques as well as prediction methods. The results indicated that the support vector machine combined with SMOTE data-balancing technique achieved the best classification performance with a 90.24% overall accuracy on the 10-fold holdout sample. All three data-balancing techniques improved the prediction accuracy for the minority class. Applying sensitivity analyses on developed models, we also identified the most important variables for accurate prediction of student attrition. Application of these models has the potential to accurately predict at-risk students and help reduce student dropout rates

Capturing "attrition intensifying" structural traits from didactic interaction sequences of MOOC learners

This work is an attempt to discover hidden structural configurations in learning activity sequences of students in Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs). Leveraging combined representations of video clickstream interactions and forum activities, we seek to fundamentally understand traits that are predictive of decreasing engagement over time. Grounded in the interdisciplinary field of network science, we follow a graph based approach to successfully extract indicators of active and passive MOOC participation that reflect persistence and regularity in the overall interaction footprint. Using these rich educational semantics, we focus on the problem of predicting student attrition, one of the major highlights of MOOC literature in the recent years. Our results indicate an improvement over a baseline ngram based approach in capturing "attrition intensifying" features from the learning activities that MOOC learners engage in. Implications for some compelling future research are discussed.Comment: "Shared Task" submission for EMNLP 2014 Workshop on Modeling Large Scale Social Interaction in Massively Open Online Course