AGRICULTURE AS A MANAGED ECOSYSTEM: POLICY IMPLICATIONS

One of the greatest challenges facing agriculture for the foreseeable future is to resolve conflicts caused by a growing competition for the services of the soil, water, and other natural resources on which agriculture depends-driven by growing demands for food, fiber, and for nonagricultural services these resources provide. To meet this challenge, research is needed which is integrated across the relevant sciences to better understand and predict the properties of agricultural production systems in all of the dimensions that have come to be represented by the concept of sustainability. If we were to achieve this capability to analyze agriculture as a managed ecosystem, it would be possible to move beyond the current regime of agricultural policies, driven largely by interest-group politics, toward science-based policies that recognize the tradeoffs associated with competing uses of natural resources.Environmental Economics and Policy,

Bio-inspired optimization in integrated river basin management

Water resources worldwide are facing severe challenges in terms of quality and quantity. It is essential to conserve, manage, and optimize water resources and their quality through integrated water resources management (IWRM). IWRM is an interdisciplinary field that works on multiple levels to maximize the socio-economic and ecological benefits of water resources. Since this is directly influenced by the river’s ecological health, the point of interest should start at the basin-level. The main objective of this study is to evaluate the application of bio-inspired optimization techniques in integrated river basin management (IRBM). This study demonstrates the application of versatile, flexible and yet simple metaheuristic bio-inspired algorithms in IRBM. In a novel approach, bio-inspired optimization algorithms Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) are used to spatially distribute mitigation measures within a basin to reduce long-term annual mean total nitrogen (TN) concentration at the outlet of the basin. The Upper Fuhse river basin developed in the hydrological model, Hydrological Predictions for the Environment (HYPE), is used as a case study. ACO and PSO are coupled with the HYPE model to distribute a set of measures and compute the resulting TN reduction. The algorithms spatially distribute nine crop and subbasin-level mitigation measures under four categories. Both algorithms can successfully yield a discrete combination of measures to reduce long-term annual mean TN concentration. They achieved an 18.65% reduction, and their performance was on par with each other. This study has established the applicability of these bio-inspired optimization algorithms in successfully distributing the TN mitigation measures within the river basin. Stakeholder involvement is a crucial aspect of IRBM. It ensures that researchers and policymakers are aware of the ground reality through large amounts of information collected from the stakeholder. Including stakeholders in policy planning and decision-making legitimizes the decisions and eases their implementation. Therefore, a socio-hydrological framework is developed and tested in the Larqui river basin, Chile, based on a field survey to explore the conditions under which the farmers would implement or extend the width of vegetative filter strips (VFS) to prevent soil erosion. The framework consists of a behavioral, social model (extended Theory of Planned Behavior, TPB) and an agent-based model (developed in NetLogo) coupled with the results from the vegetative filter model (Vegetative Filter Strip Modeling System, VFSMOD-W). The results showed that the ABM corroborates with the survey results and the farmers are willing to extend the width of VFS as long as their utility stays positive. This framework can be used to develop tailor-made policies for river basins based on the conditions of the river basins and the stakeholders' requirements to motivate them to adopt sustainable practices. It is vital to assess whether the proposed management plans achieve the expected results for the river basin and if the stakeholders will accept and implement them. The assessment via simulation tools ensures effective implementation and realization of the target stipulated by the decision-makers. In this regard, this dissertation introduces the application of bio-inspired optimization techniques in the field of IRBM. The successful discrete combinatorial optimization in terms of the spatial distribution of mitigation measures by ACO and PSO and the novel socio-hydrological framework using ABM prove the forte and diverse applicability of bio-inspired optimization algorithms

Integrated models, frameworks and decision support tools to guide management and planning in Northern Australia. Final report

[Extract] There is a lot of interest in developing northern Australia while also caring for the unique Australian landscape (Commonwealth of Australia 2015). However, trying to decide how to develop and protect at the same time can be a challenge. There are many modelling tools available to inform these decisions, including integrated models, frameworks, and decision support tools, but there are so many different kinds that it’s difficult to determine which might be best suited to inform different decisions. To support planning and development decisions across northern Australia, this project aimed to create resources to help end-users (practitioners) to assess: 1. the availability and suitability of particular modelling tools; and 2. the feasibility of using, developing, and maintaining different types of modelling tools

Practical identifiability analysis of environmental models

Identifiability of a system model can be considered as the extent to which one can capture its parameter values from observational data and other prior knowledge of the system. Identifiability must be considered in context so that the objectives of the modelling must also be taken into account in its interpretation. A model may be identifiable for certain objective functions but not others; its identifiability may depend not just on the model structure but also on the level and type of noise, and may even not be identifiable when there is no noise on the observational data. Context also means that non-identifiability might not matter in some contexts, such as when representing pluralistic values among stakeholders, and may be very important in others, such as where it leads to intolerable uncertainties in model predictions. Uncertainty quantification of environmental systems is receiving increasing attention especially through the development of sophisticated methods, often statistically-based. This is partly driven by the desire of society and its decision makers to make more informed judgments as to how systems are better managed and associated resources efficiently allocated. Less attention seems to be given by modellers to understand the imperfections in their models and their implications. Practical methods of identifiability analysis can assist greatly here to assess if there is an identifiability problem so that one can proceed to decide if it matters, and if so how to go about modifying the model (transforming parameters, selecting specific data periods, changing model structure, using a more sophisticated objective function). A suite of relevant methods is available and the major useful ones are discussed here including sensitivity analysis, response surface methods, model emulation and the quantification of uncertainty. The paper also addresses various perspectives and concepts that warrant further development and use

Forest rotation lengths under carbon sequestration payments

Carbon dioxide emissions resulting from direct human activities, primarily fossil fuel use and land clearing, have altered the global carbon cycle. Carbon is absorbed (sequestered) by plant matter during photosynthesis, so that approximately 50% of the dry weight of a forest’s biomass is carbon. This paper examines how payments to foresters for the carbon sequestered in their trees would affect harvesting decisions. It uses a theoretical multi-crop model adapted from the original Faustmann formula to consider different scenarios of the degree of carbon liability incurred at the time of harvest, and their impact on the length of the optimal crop rotation. These results are then contrasted with the equivalent output from a numerical model based on a simulated New South Wales Pinus radiata plantation. The finding of the paper provides an insight into which carbon sequestration payment policy would be the best at aligning public and private incentives.carbon sequestration

Mechanism Choice

This chapter reviews the literature on the selection of regulatory policy instruments, from both normative and positive perspectives. It first reviews the mechanism design literature to identify normative objectives in selecting among the menu or toolbox of policy instruments. The chapter then discusses the public choice and positive political theory literatures and the variety of models developed to attempt to predict the actual selection of alternative policy instruments. It begins with simpler early models focusing on interest group politics and proceeds to more complicated models that incorporate both supply and demand for policy, the role of policy entrepreneurs, behavioral and cognitive choice, and public perceptions and mass politics. It compares these theories to empirical experience. The chapter examines literature in law, economics, political science, and related fields, and it draws examples from US, European, and international regulation. It concludes with suggestions for future research. Document is the author\u27s manuscrip

Solving the ‘Wicked Problem’ of China’s Environmental Future: Cautious Optimism in the Face of Unprecedented Threats

China’s global position as an exporter of inexpensive, low-value goods has been sustained by a coal-fired growth model whose devastating environmental and social consequences are only recently being acknowledged properly by party leadership. A systematic review and analysis has been conducted of the most current academic literature addressing China’s environmental challenges. A sizeable amount of research (around 360 publications) was amassed in this pursuit, covering not only China’s environment, but also related governmental, economic, and social factors. The author has defined China\u27s environmental future as a \u27wicked problem\u27, which creates two allowances by default. First, it communicates that the problem is highly complex, involves multiple stakeholders, and has no easy solutions. Second, it recognizes that only a uniquely multi- sectoral approach can achieve accurate forecasting and sound recommendations. This paper follows this multi-sectoral approach, crossing institutional lines in search of developments economically and politically, as well as prevailing trends in both technology and culture. Scenario building of divergent futures has been visualized in order to generate confident and informed forecasting of China\u27s environmental future. The author remains cautiously optimistic regarding these future projections. However, heroic innovations in technology and environmental efficiency must be matched by seismic shifts in economic, social, and political policy. Real solutions and recommendations are prescribed in the final section of this Capstone. The importance of these recommendations cannot be overestimated. Expert consensus has equated humanity\u27s avoidance of climate fallout with the need for transformative solutions in China

Climate Change Hysteria and the Supreme Court: The Economic Impact of Global Warming on the U.S. and the Misguided Regulation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions under the Clean Air Act

In the spring of 2007, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled in Massachusetts v. EPA that the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) must promulgate automobile tailpipe C02 emission standards under Section 202 of the Clean Air Act (CAA). American environmentalists hailed the Supreme Court's decision as an important victory in the battle to curb global warming. This article argues to the contrary that: 1) a large body of economic work demonstrates that the likely pattern of costs and benefits from climate change in the United States bears no resemblance to the pollution problems that Congress intended to deal with in the Clean Air Act, with moderate climate change predominantly benefiting, rather than harming, the U.S. -- so that that the Clean Air Act cannot reasonably be interpreted to cover greenhouse gas emissions; 2) By effectively forcing the EPA to regulate ghg emissions under a statute that was never intended to cover the very different problem of climate change, the Court has changed the policy status quo in a way that makes socially desirable federal climate change legislation less likely; and 3) given the global nature of the greenhouse gas emission problem, unilateral emission limits in the U.S. are likely to be worse than ineffective, in that they will likely have the perverse effect of lessening the incentive for latecomers to climate change regulation (such as China) to themselves take costly action to reduce such emissions. The article concludes by arguing that a sensible formulation of U.S. climate change policy would involve measures to respond both to the long-term threat to the U.S. and the short-term threat to developing countries. There are policy instruments appropriate to these goals: large increases in subsidies for research and development into clean coal and alternative fuels to respond to the long term threat to the U.S.; redirecting foreign aid to fund climate change adaptation in developing countries to respond to the short term threat to developing countries.

The Diversity of Diversity: Implications of the Form and Process of Localised Urban Systems

This paper summarises research into localised urban systems which accounts for variations in styles of diversity within multi-cultural cities. New work builds on previous studies in London and Turin. The first produced an ideal type model of open:closed urban systems and evidence that the former have better capacity to incorporate incomers. The second revealed the need to adapt the model to account also for the process of diversity. This third phase combines ethnography with computer simulations to reveal emergent properties as well as present styles of urban systems, and to rank the variables driving change. The outcome will be a typology for users dealing with migrant settlement and urban regeneration.Typology of urban systems, Diversity, Relatedness, Process models, Ideal types