8,639 research outputs found
Hierarchical Models for Relational Event Sequences
Interaction within small groups can often be represented as a sequence of
events, where each event involves a sender and a recipient. Recent methods for
modeling network data in continuous time model the rate at which individuals
interact conditioned on the previous history of events as well as actor
covariates. We present a hierarchical extension for modeling multiple such
sequences, facilitating inferences about event-level dynamics and their
variation across sequences. The hierarchical approach allows one to share
information across sequences in a principled manner---we illustrate the
efficacy of such sharing through a set of prediction experiments. After
discussing methods for adequacy checking and model selection for this class of
models, the method is illustrated with an analysis of high school classroom
dynamics
Robust Modeling of Epistemic Mental States
This work identifies and advances some research challenges in the analysis of
facial features and their temporal dynamics with epistemic mental states in
dyadic conversations. Epistemic states are: Agreement, Concentration,
Thoughtful, Certain, and Interest. In this paper, we perform a number of
statistical analyses and simulations to identify the relationship between
facial features and epistemic states. Non-linear relations are found to be more
prevalent, while temporal features derived from original facial features have
demonstrated a strong correlation with intensity changes. Then, we propose a
novel prediction framework that takes facial features and their nonlinear
relation scores as input and predict different epistemic states in videos. The
prediction of epistemic states is boosted when the classification of emotion
changing regions such as rising, falling, or steady-state are incorporated with
the temporal features. The proposed predictive models can predict the epistemic
states with significantly improved accuracy: correlation coefficient (CoERR)
for Agreement is 0.827, for Concentration 0.901, for Thoughtful 0.794, for
Certain 0.854, and for Interest 0.913.Comment: Accepted for Publication in Multimedia Tools and Application, Special
Issue: Socio-Affective Technologie
Efficient fe strategies for springback prediction – material modelling and computational aspects
Blanks of sheet metal are characterized by an intrinsic plastic anisotropic behaviour resulting from the plastic deformation during the rolling of sheets. Another type of anisotropy is elastic anisotropy which might be essential especially during elastic recovery processes during unloading after forming and springback. Thus, this paper focuses on the study of the sensitivity of the amount of springback in unconstrained bending with respect to elastic anisotropy. A finite strain constitutive model for evolving elastic and plastic anisotropy combining nonlinear isotropic and kinematic hardening is discussed. The evolution of elastic anisotropy is described by representing the Helmholtz free energy as a function of a family of evolving structure tensors. In addition, plastic anisotropy is modelled via the dependence of the yield surface on the same family of structure tensors. The constitutive equations of the model are implemented as a user material subroutine UMAT in the commercial solver ABAQUS/Standard, which is then applied to the simulation of springback in unconstrained bending
A Collaborative Kalman Filter for Time-Evolving Dyadic Processes
We present the collaborative Kalman filter (CKF), a dynamic model for
collaborative filtering and related factorization models. Using the matrix
factorization approach to collaborative filtering, the CKF accounts for time
evolution by modeling each low-dimensional latent embedding as a
multidimensional Brownian motion. Each observation is a random variable whose
distribution is parameterized by the dot product of the relevant Brownian
motions at that moment in time. This is naturally interpreted as a Kalman
filter with multiple interacting state space vectors. We also present a method
for learning a dynamically evolving drift parameter for each location by
modeling it as a geometric Brownian motion. We handle posterior intractability
via a mean-field variational approximation, which also preserves tractability
for downstream calculations in a manner similar to the Kalman filter. We
evaluate the model on several large datasets, providing quantitative evaluation
on the 10 million Movielens and 100 million Netflix datasets and qualitative
evaluation on a set of 39 million stock returns divided across roughly 6,500
companies from the years 1962-2014.Comment: Appeared at 2014 IEEE International Conference on Data Mining (ICDM
Simulating the Effect of Social Influence on Decision-Making in Small, Task-Oriented, Groups
This paper describes a simulation study of decision-making. It is based on a model of social influence in small, task-oriented, groups. A process model of dyadic social influence is built on top of a dynamic model of status and task participation that describes the emergence of a stable power and prestige order. Two models of group decision-making are examined: a static model for which the beliefs of actors do not change, and a process model for which they do as a function of the standing of each member of each interacting pair in the evolving power and prestige order. The models are compared on a set of N=111 cases, each requiring an affirmative or negative group response to a proposition A(c) that pertains to a case c. Initial beliefs are assigned to each of five members of distinct professions based on an analysis of independently collected behavioral data pertinent to the proposition to be affirmed or denied in each case. Although the two influence models yield identical decisions in 70% of the cases examined, the differences between them are statistically significant and in several instances show a medium effect size. Most importantly, the differences can be explained in terms of social influence and the status and task participation model on which it depends.Social Influence; Decision Processes; Social Networks; Group Dynamics; Simulation; Agent-Based Modeling
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