Predicting the power output of distributed renewable energy resources within a broad geographical region

In recent years, estimating the power output of inherently intermittent and potentially distributed renewable energy sources has become a major scientific and societal concern. In this paper, we provide an algorithmic framework, along with an interactive web-based tool, to enable short-to-middle term forecasts of photovoltaic (PV) systems and wind generators output. Importantly, we propose a generic PV output estimation method, the backbone of which is a solar irradiance approximation model that incorporates free-to-use, readily available meteorological data coming from online weather stations. The model utilizes non-linear approximation components for turning cloud-coverage into radiation forecasts, such as an MLP neural network with one hidden layer. We present a thorough evaluation of the proposed techniques, and show that they can be successfully employed within a broad geographical region (the Mediterranean belt) and come with specific performance guarantees. Crucially, our methods do not rely on complex and expensive weather models and data, and our web-based tool can be of immediate use to the community as a simulation data acquisition platform.<br/

Development of Soil Compressibility Prediction Models

The magnitude of the overall settlement depends on several variables such as the Compression Index, Cc, and Recompression Index, Cr, which are determined by a consolidation test; however, the test is time consuming and labor intensive. Correlations have been developed to approximate these compressibility indexes. In this study, a data driven approach has been employed in order to estimate Cc and Cr. Support Vector Machines classification is used to determine the number of distinct models to be developed. The statistical models are built through a forward selection stepwise regression procedure. Ten variables were used, including the moisture content (w), initial void ratio (eo), dry unit weight (γdry), wet unit weight (γwet), automatic hammer SPT blow count (N), overburden stress (σ), fines content (-200), liquid limit (LL), plasticity index (PI), and specific gravity (Gs). The results confirm the need for separate models for three out of four soil types, these being Coarse Grained, Fine Grained, and Organic Peat. The models for each classification have varying degrees of accuracy. The correlations were tested through a series of field tests, settlement analysis, and comparison to known site settlement. The first analysis incorporates developed correlations for Cr, and the second utilizes measured Cc and Cr for each soil layer. The predicted settlements from these two analyses were compared to the measured settlement taken in close proximity. Upon conclusion of the analyses, the results indicate that settlement predictions applying a rule of thumb equating Cc to Cr, accounting for elastic settlement, and using a conventional influence zone of settlement, compares more favorably to measured settlement than that of predictions using measured compressibility index(s). Accuracy of settlement predictions is contingent on a thorough field investigation