Human Motion Trajectory Prediction: A Survey

With growing numbers of intelligent autonomous systems in human environments, the ability of such systems to perceive, understand and anticipate human behavior becomes increasingly important. Specifically, predicting future positions of dynamic agents and planning considering such predictions are key tasks for self-driving vehicles, service robots and advanced surveillance systems. This paper provides a survey of human motion trajectory prediction. We review, analyze and structure a large selection of work from different communities and propose a taxonomy that categorizes existing methods based on the motion modeling approach and level of contextual information used. We provide an overview of the existing datasets and performance metrics. We discuss limitations of the state of the art and outline directions for further research.Comment: Submitted to the International Journal of Robotics Research (IJRR), 37 page

Deep Learning-based Vehicle Behaviour Prediction For Autonomous Driving Applications: A Review

Behaviour prediction function of an autonomous vehicle predicts the future states of the nearby vehicles based on the current and past observations of the surrounding environment. This helps enhance their awareness of the imminent hazards. However, conventional behaviour prediction solutions are applicable in simple driving scenarios that require short prediction horizons. Most recently, deep learning-based approaches have become popular due to their superior performance in more complex environments compared to the conventional approaches. Motivated by this increased popularity, we provide a comprehensive review of the state-of-the-art of deep learning-based approaches for vehicle behaviour prediction in this paper. We firstly give an overview of the generic problem of vehicle behaviour prediction and discuss its challenges, followed by classification and review of the most recent deep learning-based solutions based on three criteria: input representation, output type, and prediction method. The paper also discusses the performance of several well-known solutions, identifies the research gaps in the literature and outlines potential new research directions

Early Lane Change Prediction for Automated Driving Systems Using Multi-Task Attention-based Convolutional Neural Networks

Lane change (LC) is one of the safety-critical manoeuvres in highway driving according to various road accident records. Thus, reliably predicting such manoeuvre in advance is critical for the safe and comfortable operation of automated driving systems. The majority of previous studies rely on detecting a manoeuvre that has been already started, rather than predicting the manoeuvre in advance. Furthermore, most of the previous works do not estimate the key timings of the manoeuvre (e.g., crossing time), which can actually yield more useful information for the decision making in the ego vehicle. To address these shortcomings, this paper proposes a novel multi-task model to simultaneously estimate the likelihood of LC manoeuvres and the time-to-lane-change (TTLC). In both tasks, an attention-based convolutional neural network (CNN) is used as a shared feature extractor from a bird's eye view representation of the driving environment. The spatial attention used in the CNN model improves the feature extraction process by focusing on the most relevant areas of the surrounding environment. In addition, two novel curriculum learning schemes are employed to train the proposed approach. The extensive evaluation and comparative analysis of the proposed method in existing benchmark datasets show that the proposed method outperforms state-of-the-art LC prediction models, particularly considering long-term prediction performance.Comment: 13 pages, 11 figure

Deep learning-based vehicle behaviour prediction for autonomous driving applications : a review

Behaviour prediction function of an autonomous vehicle predicts the future states of the nearby vehicles based on the current and past observations of the surrounding environment. This helps enhance their awareness of the imminent hazards. However, conventional behavior prediction solutions are applicable in simple driving scenarios that require short prediction horizons. Most recently, deep learning-based approaches have become popular due to their promising performance in more complex environments compared to the conventional approaches. Motivated by this increased popularity, we provide a comprehensive review of the state-of-the-art of deep learning-based approaches for vehicle behavior prediction in this article. We firstly give an overview of the generic problem of vehicle behavior prediction and discuss its challenges, followed by classification and review of the most recent deep learning-based solutions based on three criteria: input representation, output type, and prediction method. The article also discusses the performance of several well-known solutions, identifies the research gaps in the literature and outlines potential new research directions

MixNet: Structured Deep Neural Motion Prediction for Autonomous Racing

Reliably predicting the motion of contestant vehicles surrounding an autonomous racecar is crucial for effective and performant planning. Although highly expressive, deep neural networks are black-box models, making their usage challenging in safety-critical applications, such as autonomous driving. In this paper, we introduce a structured way of forecasting the movement of opposing racecars with deep neural networks. The resulting set of possible output trajectories is constrained. Hence quality guarantees about the prediction can be given. We report the performance of the model by evaluating it together with an LSTM-based encoder-decoder architecture on data acquired from high-fidelity Hardware-in-the-Loop simulations. The proposed approach outperforms the baseline regarding the prediction accuracy but still fulfills the quality guarantees. Thus, a robust real-world application of the model is proven. The presented model was deployed on the racecar of the Technical University of Munich for the Indy Autonomous Challenge 2021. The code used in this research is available as open-source software at www.github.com/TUMFTM/MixNet

PFL-LSTR: A privacy-preserving framework for driver intention inference based on in-vehicle and out-vehicle information

Intelligent vehicle anticipation of the movement intentions of other drivers can reduce collisions. Typically, when a human driver of another vehicle (referred to as the target vehicle) engages in specific behaviors such as checking the rearview mirror prior to lane change, a valuable clue is therein provided on the intentions of the target vehicle's driver. Furthermore, the target driver's intentions can be influenced and shaped by their driving environment. For example, if the target vehicle is too close to a leading vehicle, it may renege the lane change decision. On the other hand, a following vehicle in the target lane is too close to the target vehicle could lead to its reversal of the decision to change lanes. Knowledge of such intentions of all vehicles in a traffic stream can help enhance traffic safety. Unfortunately, such information is often captured in the form of images/videos. Utilization of personally identifiable data to train a general model could violate user privacy. Federated Learning (FL) is a promising tool to resolve this conundrum. FL efficiently trains models without exposing the underlying data. This paper introduces a Personalized Federated Learning (PFL) model embedded a long short-term transformer (LSTR) framework. The framework predicts drivers' intentions by leveraging in-vehicle videos (of driver movement, gestures, and expressions) and out-of-vehicle videos (of the vehicle's surroundings - frontal/rear areas). The proposed PFL-LSTR framework is trained and tested through real-world driving data collected from human drivers at Interstate 65 in Indiana. The results suggest that the PFL-LSTR exhibits high adaptability and high precision, and that out-of-vehicle information (particularly, the driver's rear-mirror viewing actions) is important because it helps reduce false positives and thereby enhances the precision of driver intention inference.Comment: Submitted for presentation only at the 2024 Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Boar

Driver Digital Twin for Online Prediction of Personalized Lane Change Behavior

Connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) are supposed to share the road with human-driven vehicles (HDVs) in a foreseeable future. Therefore, considering the mixed traffic environment is more pragmatic, as the well-planned operation of CAVs may be interrupted by HDVs. In the circumstance that human behaviors have significant impacts, CAVs need to understand HDV behaviors to make safe actions. In this study, we develop a Driver Digital Twin (DDT) for the online prediction of personalized lane change behavior, allowing CAVs to predict surrounding vehicles' behaviors with the help of the digital twin technology. DDT is deployed on a vehicle-edge-cloud architecture, where the cloud server models the driver behavior for each HDV based on the historical naturalistic driving data, while the edge server processes the real-time data from each driver with his/her digital twin on the cloud to predict the lane change maneuver. The proposed system is first evaluated on a human-in-the-loop co-simulation platform, and then in a field implementation with three passenger vehicles connected through the 4G/LTE cellular network. The lane change intention can be recognized in 6 seconds on average before the vehicle crosses the lane separation line, and the Mean Euclidean Distance between the predicted trajectory and GPS ground truth is 1.03 meters within a 4-second prediction window. Compared to the general model, using a personalized model can improve prediction accuracy by 27.8%. The demonstration video of the proposed system can be watched at https://youtu.be/5cbsabgIOdM

Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining for Shared Mobility and Connected and Automated Vehicle Applications

The rapid development of shared mobility and connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) has not only brought new intelligent transportation system (ITS) challenges with the new types of mobility, but also brought a huge opportunity to accelerate the connectivity and informatization of transportation systems, particularly when we consider all the new forms of data that is becoming available. The primary challenge is how to take advantage of the enormous amount of data to discover knowledge, build effective models, and develop impactful applications. With the theoretical and experimental progress being made over the last two decades, data mining and machine learning technologies have become key approaches for parsing data, understanding information, and making informed decisions, especially as the rise of deep learning algorithms bringing new levels of performance to the analysis of large datasets. The combination of data mining and ITS can greatly benefit research and advances in shared mobility and CAVs.This dissertation focuses on knowledge discovery and data mining for shared mobility and CAV applications. When considering big data associated with shared mobility operations and CAV research, data mining techniques can be customized with transportation knowledge to initially parse the data. Then machine learning methods can be used to model the parsed data to elicit hidden knowledge. Finally, the discovered knowledge and extracted information can help in the development of effective shared mobility and CAV applications to achieve the goals of a safer, faster, and more eco-friendly transportation systems.In this dissertation, there are four main sections that are addressed. First, new methodologies are introduced for extracting lane-level road features from rough crowdsourced GPS trajectories via data mining, which is subsequently used as the fundamental information for CAV applications. The proposed method results in decimeter level accuracy, which satisfies the positioning needs for many macroscopic and microscopic shared mobility and CAV applications. Second, macroscopic ride-hailing service big data has been analyzed for demand prediction, vehicle operation, and system efficiency monitoring. The proposed deep learning algorithms increase the ride-hailing demand prediction accuracy to 80% and can help the fleet dispatching system reduce 30% of vacant travel distance. Third, microscopic automated vehicle perception data has been analyzed for a real-time computer vision system that can be used for lane change behavior detection. The proposed deep learning design combines the residual neural network image input with time serious control data and reaches 95% of lane change behavior prediction accuracy. Last but not least, new ride sharing and CAV applications have been simulated in a behavior modeling framework to analyze the impact of mobility and energy consumption, which addresses key barriers by quantifying the transportation system-wide mobility, energy and behavior impacts from new mobility technologies using real-world data