A product of their bargaining environment: Explaining government duration in Central and Eastern Europe

Since the transition to democracy in the early 1990s, more than 60 percent of governments in Central and Eastern Europe have terminated prematurely. This article seeks to understand why some governments in the region survive longer than others. I argue that the nature of party system development in the region has facilitated the emergence of a polarized pattern of party competition. As the party system structures the government bargaining process, it is contended that indicators of bargaining environment complexity are essential to understanding why some governments are more durable than others. The Cox proportional hazards model is used to estimate the effect of bargaining environment variables. The results show that ideological diversity of the bargaining environment and the length of the coalition formation process are both significant indicators of government duration in Central and Eastern Europe even after controlling for economic performance, majority status and the regime divide

Three social science disciplines in Central and Eastern Europe: handbook on economics, political science and sociology (1989-2001)

Content: Ulrike Becker, Max Kaase, Gabor Klaniczay, and Vera Sparschuh: Social Sciences in Central and Eastern Europe on the Verge of EU Enlargement (7-10); Andrei Plesu: Financing Difference. Fostering the Social Sciences in the Field of Tension Between Homogenization and Differentiation (12-16); Elemer Henkiss: Brilliant Ideas or Brilliant Errors? (17-24); Janos Matyas Kovacs: Business as (Un)usual (26-33); Mitko Dimitrov: Bulgaria (34-49); Frantisek Turnovec: Czech Republic (50-64); Tiia Püss: Estonia (65-82); Laszlo Csaba: Hungary (83-101); Raita Karnite: Latvia (102-120); Linas Cekanavicius: Lithuania (121-134); Tadeusz Kowalik: Poland (135-151); Paul Dragos Aligica: Romania (152-167); Julius Horvath: Slovakia (168-186); Joze Mencinger: Slovenia (187-194); Hans-Jürgen Wagener: Demand and Supply of Economic Knowledge in Transition Countries (195-203); Hans-Dieter Klingemann: Political Science in Central and Eastern Europe: National Development and International Integration (206-212); Georgi Karasimeonov: Bulgaria (213-225); Jan Holzer and Pavel Pseja: Czech Republic (226-245); Raivo Vetik: Estonia (246-257); Mate Szabo: Hungary (258-274); Andris Runcis: Latvia (275-285); Algis Krupavicius: Lithuania (286-305); Stanislaw Gebethner and Radoslaw Markowski: Poland (306-321); Daniel Barbu: Romania (322-342); Darina Malova and Silvia Mihalikova: Slovakia (343-357); Danica Fink-Hafner: Slovenia (358-374); Pal Tamas: Followers or Activists? Social Scientists in the Reality Shows of Transformation (376-385); Nikolai Genov: Bulgaria (386-404); Michal Illner: Czech Republic (405-424); Mikk Titma: Estonia (425-436); Denes Nemedi and Peter Robert: Hungary (437-451); Aivars Tabuns: Latvia (452-466); Anele Vosyliute: Lithuania (467-483); Janusz Mucha and Pawel Zalecki: Poland (484-501); Maria Larionescu: Romania (502-517); Zuzana Kusa, Bohumil Buzik, Ludovit Turcan and Robert Klobucky: Slovakia (518-535); Frane Adam and Matej Makarovic: Slovenia (536-547); Piotr Sztompka: The Condition of Sociology in East-Central Europe (548-556); Mihaly Sarkany: Cultural and Social Anthropology in Central and Eastern Europe (558-566); Thomas Kucera and Olga Kucerova: Population science in Central and Eastern Europe: Implications for Research and Practice (567-577); Marie-Claude Maurel: Central European Geography and the Post-Socialist Transformation. A Western Point of View (578-587); Grazyna Skapska: Law and Society in a Natural Laboratory: the Case of Poland in the Broader Context of East-Central Europe (588-603)

CAN TRUST BE LEARNED IN HETEROGENEOUS ENVIRONMETNS? AN INTEGRATIVE MODEL OF POLITICAL AND SOCIAL LEARNING THROUGH DEMOCRACY

While the virtues of social capital in democracies are widely recognized, previous studies have repeatedly shown that social capital is in short supply in heterogeneous communities with ethnic minorities. Against the view that levels of social capital are culturally predetermined, I argue that it is possible to generate social capital by carefully formulating political institutions. Drawing from theories of institutional management of ethnic conflict and theories of institutional learning, I construct an integrated theory of social capital which hypothesizes that citizens learn to trust one another based on their experiences with political institutions during an extended period of democratic rule. To test this integrated model of social capital, I use a probit analysis to examine how democratic longevity in different institutional settings (e.g., majoritarian vs. consensus) influences social capital. To overcome the endogeneity problem that exists between social capital and democratic longevity, I adopt an instrumental variables approach, drawing on theories in international relations. My analysis of World Values Survey data yields three main conclusions concerning the institutional arrangements that foster social capital. First, I find that democratic longevity fosters higher levels of trust in countries with consensus institutions containing powersharing arrangements through cabinets, executive-legislative balances, party systems, and electoral systemspresumably because cooperation among different groups enhances social capital. Second, a longer period of democratic rule in highly federal institutions undermines trust, as the devolution of powers through territorial units is thought to fragment the political system and society. Finally, consistent with the theoretical expectations, I find that these two conclusions hold only among ethnic minorities. Among ethnic majorities, the effect of democratic longevity disappears once we purge the endogenous component (i.e., the effect of social capital on democratic longevity), using an instrumental variables approach. Case studies of the Baltic States, the Canadian province of Quebec, and Malaysia corroborated the findings from the statistical analyses. By uncovering a mechanism through which social capital can be generated in multiethnic states, this study makes an important contribution to the literature

The Czech Republic 2014 European Parliament Election: Voters Gone Out, New Parties In

This article describes and evaluates 2014 Czech European Parliament (EP) election. Starting with the context of the election, it goes through all relevant party actors participating in the election and introduces them both in general ideological terms as well as in relation towards the European integration. After results of election are discussed, the article concludes that 2014 EP election confirmed recent changes in the Czech party system – inter alia destabilization of the system as a whole, reconfiguration on its right wing and emergence of populism. Concerning the European message of the election, their results confirmed their second-order character.This article describes and evaluates 2014 Czech European Parliament (EP) election. Starting with the context of the election, it goes through all relevant party actors participating in the election and introduces them both in general ideological terms as well as in relation towards the European integration. After results of election are discussed, the article concludes that 2014 EP election confirmed recent changes in the Czech party system – inter alia destabilization of the system as a whole, reconfiguration on its right wing and emergence of populism. Concerning the European message of the election, their results confirmed their second-order character

Identity and Agency: Majority and Minority Ethnic Voting in New Democracies

This dissertation examines how ethnic identities are politicized through elections in new democracies. Using the cases of post-communist Latvia and Bosnia and Herzegovina, I compare the electoral success of campaigns which appeal to voters on the basis of ethnicity to those do not. I argue that ethnic parties are most likely in groups for whom two conditions are met. First, ethnicity must meaningfully differentiate ethnic insiders from outsiders, in such a way that voters will believe policy benefits will likely result from political representation for the group. Second, electoral institutions must ensure that the political mobilization of the group will result in electoral victory. These two conditions create fundamentally different incentives for ethnic majority groups and ethnic minority groups simply because of differences in group size. In most democracies with a large minority population, ethnic voting will be more likely among the majority group than the minority group, unless institutions encourage minority group voting by lowering barriers to entry. The results demonstrate the qualitatively different ways groups use ethnic identities as a resource to achieve political objectives, with important implications for minority group representation, political participation, and democratic governance in diverse societies

Why Weak States Balance: National Mobilization and the Security Strategies of Post-Soviet States

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the 14 post-Soviet states adopted dramatically differing security strategies towards Russia: some sought security by bandwagoning with Russia while others strove to balance against it. Why did states with similar experiences under Soviet rule and similar asymmetric power positions vis-à-vis Russia adopt such diverse security strategies in the aftermath of the Soviet Union’s disintegration? In contrast to prevailing theories focusing on power, economic interdependence, and cultural similarities, I propose that these variations in post-Soviet states’ security strategies can be best explained by their diverse experiences with national mobilization. The central argument of this study is that particular historical developments prime national mobilization, leading nations to see themselves as unique socio-political units worthy of independence and driving their leaders to interpret their former ruler as a primary security threat they must balance against. I test this national mobilization theory against its main alternatives through an in-depth analysis of the historical processes of national identity formation and recent security strategies of the post-Soviet states, shedding new light on mobilized identities’ role in international security. This dissertation includes a broad correlational analysis between the proposed causal factors and the fourteen weaker post-Soviet states’ foreign policy choices as well as two chapters containing in-depth case studies of Georgia and Kazakhstan, utilizing process tracing methods to test the specific causal mechanisms at play