PREDICTING ONLINE USER BEHAVIOR BASED ON REAL-TIME ADVERTISING DATA

Generating economic value from big data is a challenge for many companies these days. On the Internet, a major source of big data is structured and unstructured data generated by users. Companies can use this data to better understand patterns of user behavior and to improve marketing decisions. In this paper, we focus on data generated in real-time advertising where billions of advertising slots are sold by auction. The auctions are triggered by user activity on websites that use this form of advertising to sell their advertising slots. During an auction, so-called bid requests are sent to advertisers who bid for the advertising slots. We develop a model that uses bid requests to predict whether a user will visit a certain website during his or her user journey. These predictions can be used by advertisers to derive user interests early in the sales funnel and, thus, to increase profits from branding campaigns. By iteratively applying a Bayesian multinomial logistic model to data from a case study, we show how to constantly improve the predictive accuracy of the model. We calculate the economic value of our model and show that it can be beneficial for advertisers in the context of cross-channel advertising

Lifelong Sequential Modeling with Personalized Memorization for User Response Prediction

User response prediction, which models the user preference w.r.t. the presented items, plays a key role in online services. With two-decade rapid development, nowadays the cumulated user behavior sequences on mature Internet service platforms have become extremely long since the user's first registration. Each user not only has intrinsic tastes, but also keeps changing her personal interests during lifetime. Hence, it is challenging to handle such lifelong sequential modeling for each individual user. Existing methodologies for sequential modeling are only capable of dealing with relatively recent user behaviors, which leaves huge space for modeling long-term especially lifelong sequential patterns to facilitate user modeling. Moreover, one user's behavior may be accounted for various previous behaviors within her whole online activity history, i.e., long-term dependency with multi-scale sequential patterns. In order to tackle these challenges, in this paper, we propose a Hierarchical Periodic Memory Network for lifelong sequential modeling with personalized memorization of sequential patterns for each user. The model also adopts a hierarchical and periodical updating mechanism to capture multi-scale sequential patterns of user interests while supporting the evolving user behavior logs. The experimental results over three large-scale real-world datasets have demonstrated the advantages of our proposed model with significant improvement in user response prediction performance against the state-of-the-arts.Comment: SIGIR 2019. Reproducible codes and datasets: https://github.com/alimamarankgroup/HPM

Zapping index: Using smile to measure advertisement zapping likelihood

In marketing and advertising research, 'zapping' is defined as the action when a viewer stops watching a commercial. Researchers analyze users' behavior in order to prevent zapping which helps advertisers to design effective commercials. Since emotions can be used to engage consumers, in this paper, we leverage automated facial expression analysis to understand consumers' zapping behavior. Firstly, we provide an accurate moment-to-moment smile detection algorithm. Secondly, we formulate a binary classification problem (zapping/non-zapping) based on real-world scenarios, and adopt smile response as the feature to predict zapping. Thirdly, to cope with the lack of a metric in advertising evaluation, we propose a new metric called Zapping Index (ZI). ZI is a moment-to-moment measurement of a user's zapping probability. It gauges not only the reaction of a user, but also the preference of a user to commercials. Finally, extensive experiments are performed to provide insights and we make recommendations that will be useful to both advertisers and advertisement publishers

Click-aware purchase prediction with push at the top

Eliciting user preferences from purchase records for performing purchase prediction is challenging because negative feedback is not explicitly observed, and because treating all non-purchased items equally as negative feedback is unrealistic. Therefore, in this study, we present a framework that leverages the past click records of users to compensate for the missing user-item interactions of purchase records, i.e., non-purchased items. We begin by formulating various model assumptions, each one assuming a different order of user preferences among purchased, clicked-but-not-purchased, and non-clicked items, to study the usefulness of leveraging click records. We implement the model assumptions using the Bayesian personalized ranking model, which maximizes the area under the curve for bipartite ranking. However, we argue that using click records for bipartite ranking needs a meticulously designed model because of the relative unreliableness of click records compared with that of purchase records. Therefore, we ultimately propose a novel learning-to-rank method, called P3Stop, for performing purchase prediction. The proposed model is customized to be robust to relatively unreliable click records by particularly focusing on the accuracy of top-ranked items. Experimental results on two real-world e-commerce datasets demonstrate that P3STop considerably outperforms the state-of-the-art implicit-feedback-based recommendation methods, especially for top-ranked items.Comment: For the final published journal version, see https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ins.2020.02.06

Product-based Neural Networks for User Response Prediction

Predicting user responses, such as clicks and conversions, is of great importance and has found its usage in many Web applications including recommender systems, web search and online advertising. The data in those applications is mostly categorical and contains multiple fields; a typical representation is to transform it into a high-dimensional sparse binary feature representation via one-hot encoding. Facing with the extreme sparsity, traditional models may limit their capacity of mining shallow patterns from the data, i.e. low-order feature combinations. Deep models like deep neural networks, on the other hand, cannot be directly applied for the high-dimensional input because of the huge feature space. In this paper, we propose a Product-based Neural Networks (PNN) with an embedding layer to learn a distributed representation of the categorical data, a product layer to capture interactive patterns between inter-field categories, and further fully connected layers to explore high-order feature interactions. Our experimental results on two large-scale real-world ad click datasets demonstrate that PNNs consistently outperform the state-of-the-art models on various metrics.Comment: 6 pages, 5 figures, ICDM201

Personality in Computational Advertising: A Benchmark

In the last decade, new ways of shopping online have increased the possibility of buying products and services more easily and faster than ever. In this new context, personality is a key determinant in the decision making of the consumer when shopping. A person’s buying choices are influenced by psychological factors like impulsiveness; indeed some consumers may be more susceptible to making impulse purchases than others. Since affective metadata are more closely related to the user’s experience than generic parameters, accurate predictions reveal important aspects of user’s attitudes, social life, including attitude of others and social identity. This work proposes a highly innovative research that uses a personality perspective to determine the unique associations among the consumer’s buying tendency and advert recommendations. In fact, the lack of a publicly available benchmark for computational advertising do not allow both the exploration of this intriguing research direction and the evaluation of recent algorithms. We present the ADS Dataset, a publicly available benchmark consisting of 300 real advertisements (i.e., Rich Media Ads, Image Ads, Text Ads) rated by 120 unacquainted individuals, enriched with Big-Five users’ personality factors and 1,200 personal users’ pictures