Effects of Lightning on Trees: A Predictive Model Based on in situ Electrical Resistivity

The effects of lightning on trees range from catastrophic death to the absence of observable damage. Such differences may be predictable among tree species, and more generally among plant life history strategies and growth forms. We used field‐collected electrical resistivity data in temperate and tropical forests to model how the distribution of power from a lightning discharge varies with tree size and identity, and with the presence of lianas. Estimated heating density (heat generated per volume of tree tissue) and maximum power (maximum rate of heating) from a standardized lightning discharge differed 300% among tree species. Tree size and morphology also were important; the heating density of a hypothetical 10 m tall Alseis blackiana was 49 times greater than for a 30 m tall conspecific, and 127 times greater than for a 30 m tall Dipteryx panamensis. Lianas may protect trees from lightning by conducting electric current; estimated heating and maximum power were reduced by 60% (±7.1%) for trees with one liana and by 87% (±4.0%) for trees with three lianas. This study provides the first quantitative mechanism describing how differences among trees can influence lightning–tree interactions, and how lianas can serve as natural lightning rods for trees

Information Ranking and Power Laws on Trees

We study the situations when the solution to a weighted stochastic recursion has a power law tail. To this end, we develop two complementary approaches, the first one extends Goldie's (1991) implicit renewal theorem to cover recursions on trees; and the second one is based on a direct sample path large deviations analysis of weighted recursive random sums. We believe that these methods may be of independent interest in the analysis of more general weighted branching processes as well as in the analysis of algorithms

A very simple safe-Bayesian random forest

Random forests works by averaging several predictions of de-correlated trees. We show a conceptually radical approach to generate a random forest: random sampling of many trees from a prior distribution, and subsequently performing a weighted ensemble of predictive probabilities. Our approach uses priors that allow sampling of decision trees even before looking at the data, and a power likelihood that explores the space spanned by combination of decision trees. While each tree performs Bayesian inference to compute its predictions, our aggregation procedure uses the power likelihood rather than the likelihood and is therefore strictly speaking not Bayesian. Nonetheless, we refer to it as a Bayesian random forest but with a built-in safety. The safeness comes as it has good predictive performance even if the underlying probabilistic model is wrong. We demonstrate empirically that our Safe-Bayesian random forest outperforms MCMC or SMC based Bayesian decision trees in term of speed and accuracy, and achieves competitive performance to entropy or Gini optimised random forest, yet is very simple to construct

Bounded distortion homeomorphisms on ultrametric spaces

It is well-known that quasi-isometries between R-trees induce power quasi-symmetric homeomorphisms between their ultrametric end spaces. This paper investigates power quasi-symmetric homeomorphisms between bounded, complete, uniformly perfect, ultrametric spaces (i.e., those ultrametric spaces arising up to similarity as the end spaces of bushy trees). A bounded distortion property is found that characterizes power quasi-symmetric homeomorphisms between such ultrametric spaces that are also pseudo-doubling. Moreover, examples are given showing the extent to which the power quasi-symmetry of homeomorphisms is not captured by the quasiconformal and bi-H\"older conditions for this class of ultrametric spaces.Comment: 20 pages, 1 figure. To appear in Ann. Acad. Sci. Fenn. Mat